The 2020 Democratic Primaries and Caucuses will be kicking off soon with the first caucus happening on the 3rd February in the state of Iowa and the first primary happening in New Hampshire on the 11th February. The intention of the primaries and caucuses is to divide up people known as “delegates” to the standing democratic presidential candidates until one of them gets enough delegates to enable them to become the official Democratic nominee for president and will be the one selected to go on and take on the Republican nominee and any other candidates standing in the main presidential election in November.
There are also caucuses and primaries in each state for the two main parties to nominate a candidate for congress seats as well, for the House of Representatives and Senate, but I will not be focusing on these. There may also be primaries and caucuses for the Republicans as there are currently two challenges against the incumbent Trump but they are relatively unknown and it is very likely Trump will be nominated again so I won’t really be paying attention to them, some states have even cancelled primaries/caucuses in support of Trump, which is something that often happens for incumbents.
Candidates who don’t get nominated can still run as a candidate in a presidential election, but they won’t have the support that a nominated candidate would have access to and they would have to run as an independent or 3rd party. The last of the Democrat primaries will be on the 2nd of June and the final caucus will be on 6th June. There is a total of 3,979 delegates that will be divided out throughout the primaries and caucuses and the magic number is 1,990 delegates for the nomination.
There are also currently 771 unpledged delegates, also called superdelegates, that are appointed by the Democratic Party and they are able to choose themselves what candidates they want for the nomination, rather than being pledged by the outcome of a primary or caucus. But for the first time the Democrats have made a new rule where superdelegates will only have effect in a 2nd and any other subsequent ballot if none of the candidates manage to reach the magic number, in this case candidates will need to reach 2,376 delegates for the nomination. If in the first ballot a single candidate reaches 2,268 or more delegates, superdelegates will be allowed to vote in the first ballot as they won’t be able to overturn the result anyway.
Primaries and caucuses are held in all 50 US States, 5 U.S territories, District of Colombia, as well as Democrats Abroad, an organization that represents Democratic voters living abroad and is given state-level recognition, allowing them to divide out their own delegates. The number of delegates each get depends on a formula on the number/population of a state/territory etc. Each democrat state/territory party/state government can choose the rules of how they will run their primary/caucus but state parties are encouraged to use a government-run primary whenever possible as well as same-day or automatic registration and same-day party switching.
Caucus and Primary
A caucus and a primary are different and I will quickly explain the differences here.
A caucus is run by the political party and can be closed to registered party members, they can also be open where any can participate regardless of party affiliation. In a caucus depending on the rules people can vote by closed ballot or by openly showing support for a candidate, for example in the Iowa caucus people will gather at a caucus in each precinct and will then stand in groups to show support for a candidate and a candidate with less than 15% support is deemed non-viable in that precinct, supporters of a non-viable candidate can then either join another candidates group or attempt to convince people in another group to come to their group and validate their candidate, each candidate will get a proportional share of delegates from a precinct just as long as they have over 15% support. Caucuses often also debate issues and concerns which makes it kind-of comparable to party hustings in the UK, except without the voting/standing in groups.
A Primary election is normally run by the state’s government and there can be either open or closed primaries, open primaries allow people to vote for any party’s candidates regardless of party affiliation while closed primaries require voters to be registered with a party and they can only vote for their registered party’s candidates. There are also semi-closed and semi-open primaries, semi-closed allow voters same-day party switching or registering, while semi-open voters ask for a party-specific ballot. Usually, a candidate requires at least 15% of the vote at congressional or state-wide level to get a proportional share of the delegates.
Some primaries are though organized and run by the party, rather than the state government, these are known as party-run or firehose primaries. They are also sometimes called caucuses as well, but still operate more like a primary.
There are also nonpartisan blanket primaries where again party affiliation doesn’t matter and the top two candidates win again regardless of party affiliation, so two Democrats or two Republicans could win, though nonpartisan blanket primaries are not used in presidential primaries, only in state/federal congress primaries by California, Washington and Louisiana.
So, all in all most primaries are proportional representation and single transferable vote, normally ranked preference voting. Caucuses are gatherings where people indicate support by standing in groups, delegates are normally divided by proportional representation at each precinct caucus.
Super-delegates only have effect in a 2nd or subsequent ballot if no candidate reached the magic 1,990 delegate number in the first ballot. Super-delegates are appointed by the party and are free to pledge themselves to a candidate.
NOTE: rules are still being finalized by the party or state government.
Following the Elections
I am looking very forward to following the elections and I do plan to do posts related to them giving my analysis when I have any to give, I also will try to highlight important moments as best I can as well as making candidate profiles. The Labour Leadership Election candidate profiles are almost done so I should have more time soon to dedicate to this.
3 out of the 50 states will hold a caucus while the rest hold primaries. Democrats Abroad and the District of Colombia will also hold primaries. 5 of these 47 states holding primaries will hold party-run primaries (also sometimes called caucuses, but their rules are much more similar to primaries). Democrats Abroad is also party-run primary. The rest of the 42 state primaries are run by the state government.
4 of the 5 US territories will hold caucuses, the other, Puerto Rico, will hold a primary.
Timeline
Note: Superdelegate numbers may change. I’ll attempt to keep updated.
February
Iowa closed Caucuses – 3rd Feb – 41 delegates-proportional allocation (8 superdelegates)
New Hampshire semi-closed Primary – 11th Feb – 24 delegates-proportional allocation (9 superdelegates)
Nevada closed Caucuses – 22nd Feb – 36 delegates (12 superdelegates) – rules on delegate proportional distribution being finalized.
South Carolina open Primary – 29th Feb – 54 delegates-proportional allocation (9 superdelegates)
March
3rd March – Super Tuesday – 1,345 total delegates up for grabs
It is called Super Tuesday as it is the day when the single most caucuses and primaries are held at one time and should also give a very good indication of a likely nominee.
Alabama open Primary – 52 delegates-proportional allocation (9 superdelegates)
American Samoa open Caucuses – 6 delegates-proportional allocation (5 superdelegates)
Arkansas open Primary – 31 delegates-proportional allocation (5 superdelegates)
California semi-closed Primary – 415 delegates-proportional allocation (79 superdelegates)
Colorado semi-closed Primary – 67 delegates-proportional allocation (13 superdelegates)
Maine closed Primary – 24 delegates-proportional allocation (8 superdelegates)
Massachusetts semi-closed Primary – 91 delegates-proportional allocation (23 superdelegates)
Minnesota open Primary – 75 delegates-proportional allocation (17 superdelegates)
North Carolina semi-closed Primary – 110 delegates-proportional allocation (12 superdelegates)
Oklahoma semi-closed Primary – 37 delegates-proportional allocation (5 superdelegates)
Tennessee open Primary – 64 delegates-proportional allocation (9 superdelegates)
Texas open Primary – 228 delegates-proportional allocation (34 superdelegates)
Utah open Primary – 29 delegates-proportional allocation (6 superdelegates)
Vermont open Primary – 16 delegates-proportional allocation (7 superdelegates)
Virginia open Primary – 99 delegates-proportional allocation (25 superdelegates)
10th March – 365 total delegates up for grabs
Democrats Abroad party-run Primary/caucuses – 13 delegates-proportional allocation (8 superdelegates)
Idaho closed Primary – 20 delegates-proportional allocation (5 superdelegates)
Michigan open Primary – 125 delegates-proportional allocation (22 superdelegates)
Mississippi open Primary – 36 delegates-proportional allocation (5 superdelegates)
Missouri open Primary – 68 delegates-proportional allocation (10 superdelegates)
North Dakota open party-run/firehose primary/caucus – 14 delegates-proportional allocation (4 superdelegates)
Washington open Primary – 89 delegates-proportional allocation (18 superdelegates)
Northern Mariana Islands open Caucuses – 14th Mar – 6 delegates-proportional allocation (5 superdelegates)
17th March – 577 total delegates up for grabs
Arizona open Primary – 67 delegates-proportional allocation (11 superdelegates)
Florida closed Primary – 219 delegates-proportional allocation (29 superdelegates)
Illinois open Primary – 155 delegates-proportional allocation (29 superdelegates)
Ohio semi-open Primary – 136 delegates-proportional allocation (17 superdelegates)
Georgia open Primary – 24th Mar – 105 delegates-proportional allocation (15 superdelegates)
Puerto Rico open Primary – 29th Mar – 51 delegates-proportional allocation (8 superdelegates)
April 4th – 107 delegates up for grabs
Alaska closed party-run Primary – 15 delegates-proportional allocation (4 superdelegates)
Hawaii closed party-run Primary – 22 delegates-proportional allocation (9 superdelegates)
Louisiana closed Primary – 50 delegates-proportional allocation (7 superdelegates)
Wyoming closed Caucuses – 13 delegates-proportional allocation (4 superdelegates)
Wisconsin open Primary – 7th April – 77 delegates-proportional allocation (13 superdelegates)
April 28th – 663 delegates up for grabs
Connecticut closed Primary – 49 delegates-proportional allocation (15 superdelegates)
Delaware closed Primary – 17 delegates-proportional allocation (11 superdelegates)
Maryland closed Primary – 79 delegates-proportional allocation (23 superdelegates)
New York closed Primary – 224 delegates-proportional allocation (46 superdelegates)
Pennsylvania closed Primary – 153 delegates-proportional allocation (23 superdelegates)
Rhode Island semi-closed Primary – 21 delegates-proportional allocation (9 superdelegates)
May 2nd – 46 delegates up for grabs
Guam closed Caucuses – 6 delegates-proportional allocation (5 superdelegates)
Kansas closed party-run Primary – 41 delegates-proportional allocation (6 superdelegates)
Indiana open Primary – 5th May – 70 delegates-proportional allocation (7 superdelegates)
May 12th – 57 delegates up for grabs
Nebraska semi-closed Primary – 25 delegates-proportional allocation (4 superdelegates)
West Virginia semi-closed Primary – 24 delegates-proportional allocation (6 superdelegates)
May 19th – 115 delegates up for grabs
Kentucky closed Primary – 46 delegates-proportional allocation (6 superdelegates)
Oregon closed Primary – 52 delegates-proportional allocation (14 superdelegates)
June 2nd – 215 delegates up for grabs
District of Colombia closed Primary – 17 delegates-proportional allocation (26 superdelegates)
Montana open Primary – 16 delegates-proportional allocation (6 superdelegates)
New Jersey semi-closed Primary – 107 delegates-proportional allocation (21 superdelegates)
New Mexico closed Primary – 29 delegates-proportional allocation (11 superdelegates)
South Dakota semi-closed Primary – 14 delegates-proportional allocation (5 superdelegates)
United States Virgin Islands closed Caucuses – 6th June – 6 delegates-proportional allocation (5 superdelegates)
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