Some interesting things have taken place in the US for those of us who are interested in all that political stuff. So, let’s look into what’s going on.
California Governor Recall Petition
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A recall petition against Democrat Governor of California Gavin Newsom has gained enough signatures to trigger a recall election, this means that instead of the election being held at the end of the usual term of the Governor (2022) we may see an election as soon as Autumn of this year. The reason for the recall petition was due to people, notably business owners, becoming dissatisfied with Newsom’s handling of coronavirus lockdown measures, namely there is discontent over restrictions being too slow to be wound down despite coronavirus cases falling.
Another reason was also the controversy of Newsom attending a fancy restaurant for a birthday of a political advisor during the lockdown measures, despite telling others to stay at home. There have also been frustrations over the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine, and of course as always there are many other issues people would have also signed the recall over as well, but those listed are some of the main reasons.
1.6 million signatures were collected for the recall, which were 100,000 more than what were needed to trigger a recall, as the number required is 12% of the number of votes in the previous election. The petition was first started by a Conservative group called the California Patriot Coalition.
Gavin Newsom is a first-term Democrat who was first elected to Governor in the 2018 midterm elections, he had previously been California’s lieutenant Governor and ran for Governor after Democrat Jerry Brown was unable to run again due to term limits. Newsom’s main challenger was Republican businessman John H. Cox, but Newsom comfortably won with 61.9% of the vote, getting 7.7 million votes to Cox’s 4.7 million. Newsom was seen and still is seen as a promising Democratic politician who may even one day be President, predict some.
The last recall election took place in 2003 and both that recall and this current one is the only recalls to have taken place in California’s history so far and only the 4th so far in the entire United States. The 2003 recall election successfully ousted Democrat Gray Davis, with the famous actor Arnold Schwarzenegger winning the Governor for the Republicans, and was elected again in 2006 before stepping aside due to term limits, since then the Governor has been held by the Democrats.
This time one of the famous people to throw their hat into the ring for the Republicans is Caitlyn Jenner, although it would appear the energy around this is not what it was when Schwarzenegger ran for the Governorship. Many suspect that the recall election will result in retaining Newsom, as California has become more favourable to the Democrats, but there is of course still room for surprises.
Newsom and his team view the recall as an attempted Republican power grab and that it threatens progress made during the pandemic as well as threatening things such as gun reforms. One of Newsom’s anti-recall campaigns went as far as to call it a partisan far-right power grab.
I will be keeping an eye on this, including the polls that will inevitably come, to see if there is any possibility of the Governorship possibly being lost by Newsom to a Republican candidate. But as others suspect, I to believe that Newsom will probably retain the Governorship for the Democrats.
US 2020 Census – Seat and Electoral Vote Changes
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The United States held a Census in 2020 and the results of it have resulted in some changes to seats in the US House of Representatives, which is the lower chamber of the federal congress, for the passing and debating, and changing of legislation, and other important activities such as Government oversight.
The number of seats each state has in the House of Representatives is dependent on a population formula and so Census changes can lead to changes in the number of seats that a state is represented by in this lower chamber, they may lose seats, gain seats, or have no changes.
Since the number of representative seats in each state are also connected to the number of electoral votes a state has, this can also mean states either lose or gain some electoral votes. Electoral votes are used to determine the winner in Presidential Elections, electoral votes of a state are awarded to the winner of the popular vote in a state, with Nebraska and Maine being the only two states to split their electoral votes based on popular vote wins within congressional districts and statewide, rather than just statewide. 270 electoral votes are needed to win the presidency. Electoral votes a state has are determined by adding together seats they have in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
So, for example, Washington has 9 seats in the House of Representatives, and 2 seats in the Senate, this means they have 11 Electoral Votes in the Electoral College for Presidential Elections. All states have 2 seats in the Senate, so all you need to do is research how many seats a state has in the House, and then add two on to that. The District of Columbia, which is not a part of any of the states, does not follow this formula as it has no senators or representatives, but still has 3 electoral votes by law, this makes sense as if they were represented by voting-members in Congress they would have one seat in the House and two Senators, although this technically means it kind of does follow the formula.
So, with that in mind the changes are quite simple. California will be losing a house seat, meaning they will have 52 representatives (from 53) and 54 electoral votes (instead of 55), West Virginia loses a representative, bringing them down to 2 representatives and 4 electoral votes, Michigan loses a representative, down to 13 with 15 electoral votes, New York loses a seat down to 26 with 28 electoral votes, Illinois loses a seat down to 17 with 19 electoral votes, Ohio loses a seat down to 15 with 17 electoral votes, and finally Pennsylvania loses a seat down to 17 with 19 electoral votes.
Five states will gain a seat thanks to the Census, Montana goes up to 2 representatives, giving 4 electoral votes, Colorado goes up to 8 representatives, giving 10 electoral votes, Oregon goes up to 6 representatives, giving 8 electoral votes, North Carolina goes up to 14 representatives, giving 16 electoral votes, and Florida goes up to 28 representatives, giving 30 electoral votes.
But the biggest gain is Texas thanks to many moving from California to the state, Texas will be the only state to be gaining two extra representatives bringing its total to 38 representatives, giving 40 electoral votes.
Looking at this you may try and guess who the biggest winners and losers are among the Democrats and Republicans for future elections both in the House and the Presidential elections. For House elections at least we don’t really know who will benefit most until the districting has taken place, districting will determine what districts are removed (whether they are ones that lean or are solid Dem/Repub) and where the new districts are formed, and perhaps how others will be changed (and how this affects existing solid/lean seats and who the new seats will lean towards or be solid for).
But for presidential elections there is a bit more room to imagine. California, Michigan, New York, Illinois, and Pennsylvania are often reliable Democrat states, especially California, New York, and Illinois. Ohio meanwhile seems to lean more Republican although it can swing, while West Virginia is safely Republican. So out of this we could say that’s a net gain for Republicans anywhere from 1-3 electoral votes, which seems very minimal, but it can very much count, this is dependent of course on if Ohio, Michigan, or Pennsylvania decide to swing or not.
Florida, Montana, and generally North Carolina can be relied on by the Republicans. Florida itself has become quite strong for the Republicans since 2016, and Montana is mostly safe although there is speculation it may one day go to the Democrats. North Carolina is much more of a swing state that slightly leans Republican, but this is speculated to become less and less favourable to the Republicans as time goes on. So again, this really depends, but if all states did stick Republican, that’d be another 3 points for them. Then add Texas on, that’s another two points as Republicans can continue to rely on it for now, but again Democrats do expect to take it one day, but 2020 showed us that it may be a bit more of a while yet before that happens.
Oregon and Colorado can be pretty much relied on by the Democrats so that’s two to them. So, if we assume the states stay with their expected party or tilt towards the party they tilt towards, then Republicans may have a 3-6 electoral vote advantage from the outcome of this Census, 3 if Republican retain only their safe states, and more up to 6 if they win swing states that lean towards them. Again, it doesn’t seem like much, but it can all easily count in close elections, but I think in the long run the Democrats will probably end up being the biggest winners as North Carolina and Texas become bluer. So, this may just be a small win for now to Republicans.
I am not going to speculate on the House until districting has been done, but it will certainly be making some kind of impact. As it stands the House is already within 7 seats, an uncomfortably small majority for the Democrats, and I do reckon that the 2022 Midterms have a strong chance of handing the House to the Republicans, especially after their success in the congressional races during the 2020 election. But whether the House will be harder to obtain or not for the Republicans really just depends on how districting turns out.
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