Well. Look at that. It seems Haley staying in the race finally paid off (partially kidding) as she has managed to win the Washington D.C Republican Primary. This gives her 19 delegates with Trump getting 0. It is both a small and major win when looking at it – small in the sense that it is not a large chunk of delegates and there were not that many voters – Haley won with 1,274 votes to Trump’s 676 votes (but then again D.C is largely Democratic so the small turnout kind-of makes sense). And the win was not in a state, just a district (she has won a few districts/counties in actual states in the previous races).
And in the other sense it is a major win for Haley both historically and symbolically – historically as it makes her the first Republican female candidate in history to win a Republican primary and symbolically as… well it shows that moderate Republicans are very much on her side and it is also kind of a bog off to Trump after the whole Capitol siege fiasco in January 2021.
It is also likely Trump is not taking the loss very well as we all know he loves to win and hates to lose, even if the loss ultimately does not mean much in the grand scheme of things as he is still well on track to be the GOP nominee and it is likely one of the only wins Haley will see. But he will still be annoyed with this outcome, especially as he would have very much liked Haley to have dropped out the race by now.
If there was one place that was going to go to Haley it would be D.C. But with that out of the way it is straight on to Super Tuesday – there is also still the result of the North Dakota caucus to come that takes place today but that will certainly be a Trump win. But let us have a look at the Super Tuesday races to come:
In total tomorrow there are going to be 15 Republican primaries and caucuses. The Alabama Primary, Arkansas primary, Colorado Primary (in which Trump is currently barred from the ballot, more on that in a minute), California primary, the Alaska caucus, Maine primary, Massachusetts primary, Minnesota primary, North Carolina primary, Oklahoma Primary, Tennessee Primary, Texas Primary, Utah caucus, the Vermont primary, and the Virginia Primary.
Looking at Alabama this should be a Trump win as polls have him anywhere from 60-75 points ahead. Although there are no polls I can find for Arkansas it is a pretty Conservative state and the kind Trump will likely win in over Haley.
The Colorado Primary is interesting currently as Trump has been disqualified from its ballot – with the reason being his insurrection in Washington D.C in 2021 making him ineligible to be on the ballot under the state’s constitution – obviously this is being reppealed to the Supreme Court and we are likely to hear a decision on that today on whether Trump can or cannot be on the ballot – I cannot find any polls here either but I imagine if Trump is able to be on the ballot he will likely win the primary – if not then perhaps Haley can get a win here from that. Note the decision on whether he can be on the ballot or not will also determine if he can be on the ballot in Colorado for the US Presidential election as well and would also determine if he can be on ballots in Maine, Illinois and possibly other states in the Presidential election.
In the California primary Trump is anywhere from the high-40s to high-50s over Haley so again a likely win for him there unless the polls are very, very wrong. In Alaska caucus again no polls to be found but I do not see Trump losing here either. In the Maine primary the limited number of polls give Trump anywhere from low-40s to high-50s ahead.
Looking at Massachusetts it will probably be the closest out of the races to be held on Super Tuesday although it still isn’t looking too good for Haley – most polls put Trump in the high-30s to low-40s and one outlier gives Trump just a 17-point lead but even a 17-point lead should suggest a Trump victory. But if by any chance Haley is to win any one of the races on Super Tuesday the Massachusetts one is probably one of her best bets.
In the Minnesota primary the one poll I found gave Trump a 62 point lead over Haley, would be good to have more polls but it will probably be a Trump win anyway. For the North Carolina primary Trump is sitting around the high-40s to mid-50s over Haley based on a few of the polls done, an outlier also puts Trump at ‘only’ 28 points ahead, but again that would still suggest a Trump victory but it is closer than most of the other races if you can even call that ‘close’ as usually you would not but that is the field at the moment.
In the Oklahoma primary the one recent poll I could find gives Trump a 77-point lead over Haley. The most recent poll in the Tennessee primary gives Trump a 63-point lead over Haley. In the Texas primary Trump has anywhere from high-50s to low-70s above Haley. Of note for Texas though is some polls I have seen recently that is putting the race between Trump and Biden pretty close and the Senate race their between Republican incumbent Cruz and Democrat challenger Allred is looking very, very close – will be interesting to see how this develops. I do reckon Texas will flip to the Democrats at some point – could 2024 be that year?
Utah is another of the ‘closer’ races and again perhaps a place where Haley could get in a surprise win – either here or Massachusetts. Unfortunately not many polls have been done but the most recent near the end of January puts Trump at a 27-point lead. So, that would suggest a Trump win, but it has been long known that Republican Mormon voters in Utah are not the fondest of Trump – of which it has been this way since prior to even the 2016 election so it is not anything new.
Yet another state where it is also a bit closer than usual is Vermont, a state known for its more progressive and moderate voters (as well as having Bernie Sanders as one of its senators) so again I guess it is not much of a surprise that Trump is also underperforming here – polls still put him around the 30-point range again suggesting he should win here anyway but again if there are any races on Super Tuesday that Haley wins this is one of the trio alongside Utah and Massachusetts, but like with those it will be a long shot.
Finally in Virginia the few polls I can find give Trump a around 60-point lead over Haley but there also one odd poll that gives Trump just an 8-point lead and it is recent too but it is from the same pollster that did a different poll that gave Trump a 60-point lead so it seems they have used some kind of different methodology. It is a shame there are not more polls as without more polls I cannot really make much of the 8-point poll and it would seem to be an outlier. Some other polls from the same pollster put Trump anywhere from 8-37 points ahead. I reckon Trump will ultimately win here but the polls are a bit interesting although without more polls from other pollsters to correlate with I cannot really tell too much of a meaning, if anything.
So, it would seem there are a few interesting races in there where Haley has a small chance of getting a surprise win, but the majority of races if not all of them should see a sizeable Trump win. A good night for Trump will be winning every race on Super Tuesday along with a reasonable lead in each one, while a good night for Haley would be winning at best 1-3 of the races where it is closer than usual as even one such win could further give credence to more moderate Republican voters being a potential problem for Trump in the future.
But I think even in the best case scenario where Haley gets those three wins (Massachusetts, Utah, and Vermont) there still is very little leeway for her to turn around what will still be an extremely likely Trump GOP nominee at the end of it all. I think if she loses all races on Super Tuesday she will probably drop out of the race, but she may stay in if she gets a few of those long-shot wins, if not just to annoy Trump.
Thank you for reading this post, if you have any queries please Email me, you can find my Email in the Contacts & Community section. Please also follow The Weekly Rambler on Twitter, Reddit, Pinterest, Instagram, Threads and Facebook which you can access through the buttons at the bottom of this website (Threads is accessed via Instagram). You can also use the social media buttons under each blogpost to share with your family, friends and associates.
You can also subscribe to Email notifications at the right-side of this website to know whenever a new post goes up (you can easily unsubscribe from this at any time through a button in each Email notification), or alternatively you can use an RSS Feed Reader.