I think after Super Tuesday and also the last batch of primaries the road isn’t looking too healthy for Bernie Sanders due to his underperformance during the big day as well as performing worse in many places, even places that he has won, than he did back in 2016. It seems he had a false start and it is now stalling out. One of the big problems is that a lot of Bernie’s base is made up of the young, many of whom don’t bother getting out to vote and of which has been shown throughout Super Tuesday and the contests last Tuesday and is a continuing trend, time after time, seemingly no matter what, even when it is shown time over that if they did get out, things would change, they simply do not and can never be counted on like older voters can.
Biden has two strong groups at his side, which is the older white vote as well as the strong black vote due to his affiliation with former president Barack Obama as his Vice-President. Moderate voters will now rally around Biden with Klobuchar, Buttigieg and Bloomberg out of the race and all of whom have endorsed Biden, giving him a big boost, unfortunately for progressives, the moderates still make up the vast majority, although many would likely still agree with certain Sander’s policies such as Medicare-for-all, they simply don’t believe he will be strong enough to beat Trump.
Looking at the polls in the big states such as Florida, Ohio, New York and many of the other upcoming pivotal states, Biden is easily in a position to win them, especially now, perhaps I am jumping the gun a bit, but what Bernie really needed was to get a big win on Super Tuesday and the contests after that, especially Michigan and Washington, one of which would have been really hard to deny him the nomination, but it just hasn’t materialized and that is now putting him into an uphill battle with many future states that are not Bernie-friendly. There is also the question of what Warren may do now she has dropped out, some speculate she may become Biden’s running mate, which if it is the case, could fracture the progressive vote, damaging Bernie, but even if that doesn’t happen, I think at this point it really is basically over.
Many people thought that finally, 2020 would be the year for Bernie, and I also thought this as well. But it seems once again the moderates will prevail. Of course, it isn’t yet over and things in politics can quickly change, as we have witnessed here, but the window is closing fast and Bernie is going to need a lot of luck and higher turnout from now to win the nomination, otherwise it simply isn’t going to happen if the motivation isn’t there.
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