Quiet New Year – 2021
New Year’s Eve was very muted and different this time around due to the Coronavirus. A number of countries did still put on displays such as Taiwan, North Korea, New Zealand and Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates. Australia also still held a number of firework displays including the famous one in Sydney, albeit without the usual crowds, which is the case with many countries that still held their displays/shows, there were no crowds present, everyone either watched from the television or from an online livestream.
The United Kingdom did not hold its usual famous fireworks display around the iconic London Eye, instead we had the Big Ben bong at 11pm GMT to mark the end of the BREXIT transition period and then another Big Ben bong at midnight to mark the entrence of 2021. The lack of the spectacular London fireworks display this New Year’s left a notable sense of emptiness to the start of this year.
It is also of particular note to look to the extraordinary, of which 2020 very much was, and among it are smaller extraordinary events, such as that of the Christ Church Bells not chiming in Dublin, Republic of Ireland for the New Year’s, perhaps for the first time in centuries. All of the country’s events were moved online, due to their recently introduced month-long lockdown thanks to rising cases of the Coronavirus.
In the United States of America it was rather the same story with the usual New Year’s fireworks displays cancelled in many major cities and the absence of thousands of revellers in New York City’s Times Square where they would witness the world-famous ball-drop, which for the first time was instead viewed almost entirely from television or livestream. A look at Times Square during this time saw witness to an eerie quiet gloom. And even in South America, such as in Brazil the famous Copacabana Beach sat silent and still in a country well known for its high-energy festivals, carnivals, colours and partying.
It’s little things like this that really give you a sense of how incredibly different 2020 has been, to many the year was a never ending rollercoaster of tragedy and unfortunate events, which obscured all of the good things that certainly also happened.
It is now hoped by many that 2021 will be the beginning of the end for the Coronavirus pandemic, and that as the vaccine enters into general circulation, things will slowly begin returning to some kind of normality.
For me I am pledging to continue this blog but this time I am taking a bit of a different spin and I am no longer going to keep making specific schedules that seem rather limiting to me, instead I will be blogging about stuff that interests me, like everything in this very post. Current Affairs very mucn interests me and it could be that if this works out I may totally convert to a Current Affairs rambling blog if it feels right – and so far it does – it just feels more natural to me rather than forced.
I have had a bit of a problem over the last year with my content feeling forced, I have not been happy with the end result of much of it and as such it has caused me a degree of stress and anxiety. And so I am hoping this new approach where I type up something and simply just post it works out.
Of course stuff I am interested in blogging about isn’t just confined to Current Affairs, and so you will still be seeing other stuff amongst all that to, but again not on a schedule, I will take my time with it and post it when I feel ready to and that I am happy with it.
I will still be finishing off my Paranormal States series and also carrying on with the Government Systems series, but again they will not always be set to an exact schedule. I will also be finishing off the Creative Writing story of Nethersfar, as I have been enjoying that and it is good practice for me.
I will also be ending the Gungeon playthrough (there are a couple more left to published but then that will be it), I may still possibly do playthroughs of other games from time to time and record it on the blog and I may do reviews of TV Series and movies as well sometimes.
These changes should hopefully bring a more natural feel to the blog.
Other things I will continue on with in the New Year is my novels that I am creating and writing, learning French on Duolingo and I am planning to try and learn to code in HTML5, and I also want to learn CSS and Python as well – such things would have the benefit of improving my website and blog as well.
Coronavirus into 2021
It is without doubt that we will still be looking at much and continued disruption from the coronavirus into this year and although Boris Johnson is hopeful that the tier system can begin to be strung down from April onwards, I myself think this is a rather ambitious view, especially considering we do not yet know if the vaccine will have a strong effect on transmission rates, there is still much to wait and see for.
Personally I think the tier system will exist on into at least the Summer of this year and perhaps through it. If though the vaccine does end up beginning to have an impact on transmission rates it is without question that it will be time to start scaling down lockdowns, I will myself become anti-lockdown once I am confident that the vaccine is effective. For those who do not take the vaccine, the irresponsbility will lie upon them.
Spain is planning to keep a register of those who refuse to take the vaccine and will share it with the European Union, although it has been pledged that this register will not be public and also would not be shared with employers and would abide with data protection laws. Perhaps such people may find themselves barred from travelling to some other EU nations if they do not have the vaccine, although this is not confirmed or guaranteed to happen.
But for now the virus remains an immediate threat, especially with the holiday period coming to an end, transmission rates could and already are picking up, in-fact we are seeing almost daily records in transmission rates, which is very worrying. As such the current predicament is what is happening with schools and other places of education, many want to see them closed, as many are scared that already high transmission rates could explode with the return to term.
The Government though, who has made some small u-turns, such as delaying the return of Primary Schools in London and some in the South-East of England, are still aiming to have all other Primary schools opened by the time this blog post is up, and the plan for Secondary schools and other places of higher up education to have a staggered return.
But the Government faces large opposition on this head-strongness, including local authorities and the National Association of Head Teachers having even threatened legal action against the government if such plans for school openings go ahead.
The Government has pledged that the Armed Forces will be used to help testing for coronavirus in Secondary Schools, Colleges and Universities, but many complain that this will merely cause unnecessary chaos and confusion, when such places could instead be closed and such manpower used elsewhere needed. So it is certainly possible with all this that more u-turns could yet take place.
It is very unfortunate that young people are having their education fall once again into uncertainty for another year, and it is certainly damaging, but is not something that cannot be fixed at a later time, and educational places must continue to the best of their abilities to adapt further to distance/online learning, to at least stem any such damage.
One of the biggest blows in the coronavirus fight are the two newest mutations of the virus, one that was first identified in England, and then another in South Africa, both of which were far more contagious strains, and of which, the England variant most particularly, have been found in many other European countries now and also the United States, it is already likely that the strain is certainly well in circulation around the world, the strain is also noted for infecting more children as well, giving another reason to push for school closures. But scientists are confident that the vaccine will still work against it. But continued mutations of the virus into 2021 and beyond will be a continued worry and threat.
As of now the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, has asked for a new National Lockdown to be imposed within 24-hours to slow down the spread of the coronavirus, this comes not long after Liverpool Council leaders also asked for a national lockdown to help contain the spread of the new varaint. I strongly suspect though that the government will be avoiding this, as if they do another national lockdown, it once again shows a failure of their local tiered lockdown system.
Boris Johnson has said recently that in the next few weeks coronavirus restrictions may be made even more tougher than they already are, although he himself believes that lockdowns are ineffective at ultimately curbing coronavirus. Experts say at least 2 million a week need to be vaccinated to slow down the current wave of cases.
Local and Mayoral Elections?
Another thing on some peoples minds, such as my own as I am very enthusiastic about elections and the interesting data they bring, is if the local and mayoral elections, which were delayed from last year, will be going ahead this year. I can only imagine that the government will be trying their hardest to make them happen, as they are with schools.
I myself really do want the elections to be held this year, as I do enjoy watching their outcomes, but of course it is tough times and many others would rather not see them go ahead if transmission rates remain high, it could be possible that they will once again be delayed. The usual timing for them to be held is in May, and so it will remain to be seen what the situation will be for the Coronavirus during that time. Perhaps they will be delayed into the Summer or Winter instead.
Polls show that Labour and Conservatives are near enough level-pegging as of now, although this doesn’t exactly mean too much for local elections as I am going off national polls, but in the BREXIT climate the national polls did seem to correlate more than usual to local outcomes than ever before. It did take a while for the Labour Party to catch up, but continued divisions in the party, as well as a leader who is rather dull and uninspiring, will likely give continued problems against a Conservative Party that is more united after the 2019 General Election.
End of the BREXIT Transition Peroid
On New Year’s Eve at 11pm GMT Big Ben’s bongs signalled the end of the BREXIT transition period and the execution of the BREXIT deal that was clinched by Boris Johnson close to the deadline – who some suspect may have been a bit of a last minute show for increased praise and support.
What this means is that we are now completely out of the European Union including the Single Market and customs union and as such are no longer bound by EU rules and regulations, and the Deal agreed between the UK and EU will now come into force.
Such immediate impacts of this include the UK now having full control over immigration policy with the power to end the Freedom of Movement clause for EU citizens that they were subject to follow under EU law, of course this also has the effect of no longer allowing UK citizens to freely travel to other EU member states as well.
Another immediate effect will be the governments promised repeal of the so-called “Tampon tax” a tax of at least 5% VAT on sanitary products that were seen as non-essential items. Due to the tax seeing sanitary items such as tampons as non-essential many have dubbed the tax as sexist and have long fought against it, with the UK as a member being one of the driving member states against the regulation. Some believe that the UK’s exit from the EU could stall efforts to get the union as a whole to repeal/amend the regulation.
Another effect will be increased bureacracy for the exporting of goods between the UK and EU, of which many companies and businesses will need to adapt to on top of adapting to various other regulatory changes, and as such many businesses may be able to perform practices also that they could not under the EU.
Those who voted to leave the EU solely on the issue of immigration will likely be disapointed to realize that immigration from outside the EU is not likely to be stemmed, but increased as a way to accomadate the loss of those from the EU coming to work in the UK. It is a simple fact that with lowering birth rates in the West, immigration becomes a greater and greater need to fill jobs, these include both high-skilled jobs and minimum wage jobs.
As said a trade deal was signed and activated between the UK and EU, which does put the UK on better footing rather than just crashing out with no-deal. The deal does include tariff-free trade on goods, but the services sector is excluded from this, a sector that makes up a large part of the UK economy, and so this could see a hit in the long-term. The UK has also signed as many as 62 trade deals outside of the EU, although some big ones such as with China, India and the United States are yet to be finalised.
But despite knowing about these immediate impacts of a completed BREXIT, which took almost half a decade from the 2016 EU referendum, the long-term effects of BREXIT is still rather like a dark forest, we just won’t know until such things take place, such as the true economic effect, implications of National Security and international crime control etc.
An immediate massive crisis caused by leaving the EU was never really realistic, but it is possible a sort-of crisis could develop over the coming years, like a slow creep, and this will likely shape our political world and the parties within it. I certainly see many future General Elections still having topics and issues that have come-about from BREXIT, some may look for solutions via either looser or closer integration with the EU and others most likely eventually (but not instantly) will develop a political ideal to rejoin the EU – which in itself is more easier said than done and brings a whole host of other issues, such as the UK’s currency as a big example.
Another thing yet to consider is that all this could not have come at a worse time in history during the midst of a global pandemic. It is wondered by many if leaving the EU during this time will create new adverse effects or worsen existing adverse effects of the pandemic.
There are also some interesting anomalies yet to note. For example Northern Ireland, although a part of the United Kingdom, will trade with the EU as if it were still apart of it, what this special exception means is that goods moving between NI and Britain will now need a customs declaration first – the effects of avoiding a hard border with the Republic of Ireland has instead sort-of created one down the Irish Sea.
What’s more is that Gibraltr, a British Overseas Territory (that voted to remain a part of the EU and can cause political tensions between Britain and Spain) will be joining the Schengen Area, an organisation of European countries who have abolished border checks between them, allowing Freedom of Movement. Incredibly what this means is that citizens from the UK will be forced to require a passport to travel to Gibraltr, even though it is a British territory.
Further it will also be remain to seen what happens with Scotland and Northern Ireland, both of whom voted to remain a part of the EU but had to leave with the United Kingdom. The Good Friday Agreement allows NI to organise a referendum to reunify with tthe Republic of Ireland and with such parties as Sein Fein and Alliance gaining ground it could only be a matter of time before this happens.
For Scotland it isn’t as straight forward as there is no such agreement with them, that would allow them to hold an independence referendum for example. Boris Johnson has also said a number of times that he will not give permission for a referendum to take place. As such it will be interesting to see what happens on that front as we move into the future. Polls show that Irish Reunification and Scottish Independence certainly have a good chance of happening if such referendums were to go ahead. Some who are an indyref supporter have suggested that the Scottish government should attempt to hold a referendum without the approval of the UK government, which could possibly bring about a Catalonia-style incident.
Scotland’s parliament – Holyrood – already rejected the BREXIT Deal in a move that although has no power to stop its implementation, was still a symbolic move showing that the country was not going to be backing down. The First Minister – Nicola Sturgeon – also tweeted a message shortly after the transition period ended asking the EU to keep the light on for them as they would be “back soon”.
It sounds triumphant and perhaps inspiring to those who support becoming independent and rejoining the EU, but it is not as simple as it seems. Even if Scotland did achieve independence, simply joining up to the EU afterwards would not happen and would instead likely be a long and tedious process that Scotland would need to make sure it can handle as an independent nation. It could be disastrous for Scotland to leave the UK and then face years of waiting through the complex process and loops of bureacracy and political wrangling – such a period of purgatory would require Scotland to be sure that it can handle the social and economic consequences of such a period.
If a referendum were to be given approval, I would not be surprised to see Unionists using such talking points as a way to scare pro-independence supporters by emphasising larger economic insecurity and uncertainty and an unknown period of isolation, and pushing the point in the face of that, that it would be more secure and safer to remain with the UK.
United States Georgia Runoffs, Electoral College & Joe Biden
In the US there is an important week coming up, a week that includes an astonishing two Senaste Special Elections in the same state – Georgia – and of which will determine what party controls the Senate in the coming Biden administration. The Democrats would need to flip both seats from the Republicans to take control of the Senate (with Kamala Harris as Vice-President able to break 50-50 splits in favour of the Democrats) while Republicans need to hold at least one to retain control. The elections take place on 5th January. The new 117th Congress was already sworn in yesterday, as it usually is on 3rd January after an election.
The Republican Senators are still seen to have the advantage of holding the two Senate seats in a state that usually leans towards the GOP although has become tighter over recent years – the Democrats on the other hand hope to ride on Joe Biden’s success of flipping the state in the presidential election to push the two Senate seats into their column.
What’s more is that the fiasco over the COVID Stimulus, where the Senate GOP blocked $2k handouts could play to the Democrats advantage in the state, even more so in that the GOP also went against Trump on this, which could have the effect of making some pro-Trump supporters in Georgia not bother voting.
Early voting has been pretty high, close or even at normal election levels which is generally good news for the Democrats.
Only a day after the above elections will be another important day, where Congress will be making the final certification of the Electoral College vote of which should cement Joe Biden’s victory.
Although quite significantly there are at least 140 GOP legislators in the House of Representatives who plan to vote to contend the results, while at least 10 GOP members of the Senate headed by Ted Cruz are demanding a commission to investigate election fraud allegations via an emergency 10-day audit. This opposition though is expected to fall through and it is still widely expected that the EC vote will be fully certified despite these objections.
On this same day Donald Trump has called on his supporters to march in Washington D.C against what he see’s as an election rigged by vote fraud. It is possible that would could see some hot tensions and maybe even some violence on the day.
Finally after all this on 20th January near the end of the month the inauguration of Joe Biden as President and Kamala Harris as Vice-President is planned to take place and certainly will take place – despite the many who continue to connive over ways of how Trump can somehow still win.