EU U-Turn on Northern Ireland Export Controls
- The EU triggered Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol to impose export controls on Northern Ireland, seen as a nuclear option, sparking controversy between UK and EU officials.
- The Northern Ireland Protocol was part of the BREXIT Deal and is to do with Northern Ireland’s special status, allowing it to still be within the European customs union unlike the rest of the UK.
- Due to the ongoing vaccines row in the EU, the Article 16 was triggered over worries that Northern Ireland would be used as a backdoor to move EU vaccines into the UK, who are far ahead of the EU in its vaccine delivery
- This caused outrage, due to it effectively introducing a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
- Anger was also caused as it could have disrupted legally binding contracts for vaccine deliveries into the United Kingdom. The EU backtracked on its decision and made a U-turn upon agreeing on legal contractual obligations of vaccine delivery.
My views
I agree this was a premature decision made by the EU with very poor forethought into the matter. It stems from problems within the EU to do with vaccine supply from EU factories that are currently having unforseen problems, and this has in-turn lead to a clash related with BREXIT arrangements as the EU tries to find ways to combat the vaccine shortfall issue.
In reality the EU really should have negotiated with the UK on the issues of vaccines rather than making this decision, but it is at least good they chose to quickly backtrack from it, but it does cause a degree of embarrasment to the bloc. As I have said previously I’d be happy for the UK to help the EU via supplying any extra vaccines we have to them, to help save lives, just as long as it doesn’t cause negative effects to those who need vaccines in the UK.
This goes to highlight the flaws of the Northern Ireland part of the BREXIT Deal which was always a troubling sticking point.
Myanmar Military Coup
- Myanmar’s military takes control of the country.
- Leading politicians including Aung San Suu Kyi – who is seen as the de facto leader of the country (but is unable to be President due to having children who are foreign nationals), have been detained by the military.
- The military coup comes after what the armed forces called “huge discrepancies” in the November election results where Kyi’s party National League for Democracy largely improved upon its results from the previous election, against the military-backed party.
- The military brought allegations of election fraud but these were rejected by Myanmar’s election commission.
- The military has declared a 1-year-long State of Emergency and the Army’s Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing has been put in charge of the country. Myint Swe, the country’s Vice President, has been made Acting President.
- The coup came less than a day before the newly elected parliament was scheduled to begin.
- Phone and Internet connections in Naypyitaw, the capital and in Yangon were disrupted and state TV was taken off air, although these things were blamed on technical problems, which is doubtful the reason.
- The National League for Democracy party has called on people not to accept the coup and to protest against it. Country’s such as the US, UK and Australia have condemned the coup and asked for the civilian government to be restored.
My view
It is not entirely surprising this has taken place. Myanmar has struggled with the military gripping on to the country’s power structures even as they allowed a transition from military to civilian rule, which in my opinion clearly wasn’t true civilian rule. The military still maintained influential and powerful control of many ministries and institutions as well as security forces, meaning that when things didn’t end up going the military’s way this outcome was highly likely, I’d say even inevitable.
It will now be seen as to what the military plans to do over the next year under the State of Emergency and whether the civilian population does decide to protest or rise up against the military power grab. The military has performed this action under the guise of protecting democracy and are not comfortable with calling it a coup themselves, they claim they are doing it through constitutional means, but anyone can clearly see the military is only in it for themselves due to their military-backed party doing poorly in the country’s November elections – they did follow constitutional convention at first by highlighting possible electoral fraud to institutions set-up to deal with such matters, but they were unhappy with the conclusion after the fact.
I hope that one day Myanmar can shake military control and interference in its democratic institutions and eject the military entirely from government structures, rather than there being another compromise that allows military participation within governmnet, until that happens Myanmar will never be a true democratic republic, but unfortunately it would seem there is yet a long way to go. Things are not yet as bad as when the country was under a brutal military dictatorship after a coup in 1962 following the country’s independence, and civilian government was only allowed since 2011, but obviously many will be scared that this is what it may now lead towards again.
If the people do choose to protest or rise up there is the worrying possibility of bloodshed and death.
I also hope that foreign country’s, namely the US, won’t head blindly towards sanctions as this usually impacts the civilians more than those they’re actually meant to impact. If sanctions are to be implemented they need to be done in a way where civilians won’t face the risk themselves. So let’s not rush this delicate situation.
Russia-Navalny Protests
- Another round of protests have hit areas of Russia, namely the capital Moscow.
- The protests come in response to the arrest of Alexei Navalny after he returned to Russia, he had received treatment in Germany from a poison attempt on his life, which he and the West blame on the Kremlin.
- Alexei Navalny is seen as Russia’s most influential opposition figure against Vladimir Putin who has ruled the country for 21-years and is seen as a corrupt and undemocratic figure, namely changing the constitution to allow him to remain in power and rigging of elections.
- In response to his arrest upon returning to Russia, which many were shocked at him doing, a series of protests from Navalny supporters have taken place in cities across Russia.
- The latest round of protests took place on Sunday 31st January, with over 5,000 people having been arrested. The BBC says this number of arrests is more than at any point in Putin’s 21-year-rule.
- Pictures and videos showed heavy-handed tactics used by police such as clubbing people bloody and using stun weapons.
My view
Russia is a large place and although I have seen lots of pictures and videos from OSINT sources on social media of what happened on Sunday, it’s hard to determine truly how much of Russia is against Putin. But these latest protests are without little doubt the largest seen against Putin in a very long time, perhaps ever seen. The arrests of thousands can be construed in many ways such as due to breaking of any coronavirus restrictions or simply that as the media says, Putin is paranoid to allow peaceful protest to go ahead.
There were certainly heavy-handed tactics used by police that should not have been allowed, but so I have also seen this performed by riot control in other countries as well, such as in the US. Of course this doesn’t excuse it and it should not happen. But it can be hard to justify protests during a coronavirus pandemic when such protests would very much be cracked down upon within other countries due to coronavirus restrictions, that in ways may also be seen as totalitarian if there were no coronavirus.
I am not a supporter of Putin and I agree he is corrupt and works to keep himself in power and I do hope that one day Russia’s democracy improves to the level of other western nations. I do not expect these latest protests to lead to that yet, but many times these things start slowly and build-up, usually over many, many years or even decades, before enough momentum finally comes for change.
We only have to look at Venezuela and Belarus to see that even if half the whole world is against you, even if there are lots of punishing sanctions, doesn’t mean they’re going to collapse from some protests/unrest, even if they appear to be large in scale. Very specific circumstances are required for a government to be overthrown/removed from power, and they aren’t easy to meet. And in the case of Russia I’d say winning the fight for democracy is even harder than it would be in Venezuela. These things in my opinion should also always be organic without interference from foreign adversaries, otherwise this usually leads to more/other problems or can even make things worse.
I can only assume though that if things in Russia did change it could be one of those French Revolution moments that in-turn leads to various other liberal events around the world, namely in countries heavily influenced and kept afloat by Russia, such as corrupt and totalitarian former Soviet states for example.
Hong Kong Residents Eligible for Special UK Visa
- A visa scheme that allows Hong Kong residents to come to the UK begun yesterday. The visa is open to those in Hong Kong who hold a British National (Overseas) passport and their immediate dependents. The scheme will offer a fast-track to UK citizenship.
- As many as 300,000 Hong Kong residents are expected to apply to the scheme during the first 5-years, with ultimately 5.2 million Hong Kong citizens eligible in total.
- Those who apply and obtain the visa will be able to apply for settlement after 5-years and then British citizenship after 12-months.
- The scheme was put together in response to China’s anti-democracy crackdown and encrouchment on Hong Kong’s special administrative status, more specifically introduction of a controversial security bill.
- In response the Chinese foreign ministry said it no longer recognises the BNO passport as a travel document.
- The move by the UK is also symbolic as Hong Kong was once a British colony and then Overseas Territory but it was transferred to Chinese administration under a special status agreement in 1997.
- The Special Status agreement was a one country two systems method, and included rights to freedom of assembly, free speech, and freedom of the press. But the UK believes that the security bill that was enacted now violates this agreement.
My view
It is exciting to see how this goes. It’s a very ambitious move made by the United Kingdom but also a right one I think, as they were responsible for giving it over to China and are going to honour the agreement and terms that it was given over for. The UK isn’t going to allow China to erode away the rights that the agreement was signed on.
And for those that hold BNO passports they do have a connection to the older system, they were effectively British nationals and offering them protection if they so choose to take it is the humane thing to do. Of course many things can go wrong and a strong response from China is likely, so there is much anxiety over how this pans out.
Not only does it have implications for international diplomatic relations with China but it also has implications for the UK itself, as many of these people will require economic support to get started in the United Kingdom, it could well at-first put a strain on the economy. But at the same time after the hard parts are pushed through these peoples can become beneficial to the UK’s economy.
But ultimately it isn’t just about benefits, it’s about honouring the rights they were given under the special status agreement. What’s the point of signing agreements if they are to just be disragarded on not only one but both sides, if the UK had chosen to do nothing? The UK has honoured the agreement here by choosing to go out of its way to harbour these peoples and protect their freedoms that they were suppose to keep.
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