Now that it is September I wanted to try and start a series where I look into the polls each week and talk about what it might mean or why such changes have happened and all. I also want to dive deeper into some of the polls to see the other data they have come up with and just try and talk about it.
Obviously, I am no polling expert but I still like to try and give some kind of analysis as we come up to the presidential election in the US in November and just talk about the different movements. As of now the polls have continued to give Biden a fair lead although there is some possible evidence of some tightening since the RNC convention, it seems Trump may have moved up by about 2ish points in the national vote, although more polls are needed to fully confirm this so that it isn’t just statistical noise.
I am expecting things to get a bit closer as we come nearer to the election and so far, that seems to be what is slowly taking place, but there is still yet about 2-months until the election. As of now the polls have Biden in the high-40s to low-50s while Trump is in the low to mid-40s. Biden seems to overall be polling better than Hillary was at this point in 2016.
End of August National Polls
So, let’s go over some of the polls that we got at the end of August, for this we will look at a HarrisX, USC Dornsife, RMG Research, Emerson College, AtlasIntel and Léger polls.
First, we have the HarrisX poll that was conducted from 25th-28th August on 2,862 registered voters, note that these are registered voters and not likely voters, which means not all of them will necessarily vote, their poll puts Biden on 47% and Trump on 38%, giving a difference of 9 points, this poll is clearly good for Biden when taking it in on face value, Trump being in the high-30s is not good for an incumbent, he really wants to be polling in at least the mid to high 40s. 8% said on the poll that they still don’t know who to vote for yet, which when looking at it like that still really puts into perspective that things can easily change. It is also of note that this poll was conducted during the RNC convention and so any possible bounce from that isn’t yet fully recorded. The HarrisX poll also shows Surburban voters supporting Biden 51% and Trump 35%, of which both have been currently targeting. Independent voters support Biden 41% to Trump’s 30%. Margin of error for this poll is 1.83%, which should make it fairly reliable. 538 rates the poll C and gives it a 1.3% Republican bias.
Next up is the RMG Research poll that was conducted from 27th-29th August on 915 likely voters, so voters that are probably going to vote in the election rather than just general registered voters. This poll puts it much closer with Biden on 48% and Trump on 44%, a difference of just 4-points. This poll takes more of the potential post-RNC convention boost into account. The poll shows that the election is all still to play for, although giving Biden a slight advantage with him nearing the 50% mark. The full poll was conducted on 1,200 registered voters but had a focus on the 915 likely voters, when taking the full poll into account Biden’s lead moves up to 50% with Trump on 42%, an 8-point difference which shows that higher turnout would benefit Biden while lower turnout would benefit Trump. The RMG poll has a margin of error of 2.8% for the full sample and 3.2% when only focusing on likely voters, so it is quite a significant possible margin. 538 rates the poll B/C.
Next up is USC Dornsife which is tracking the election day by day and makes an update to its chart at midnight (US time) each day of the week. Currently the chart is giving Biden a strong almost 53% lead over Trump’s 41% (rounded up) which is a difference of 12 points currently (up to the 30th August as it stands). When compared to other polls it seems like it is an outlier but it will still be interesting to keep an eye on day by day to see how it changes as we get closer to the election. If Biden did win the national vote by this margin it is likely he would also win the electoral college vote and beat Trump. USC Dornsife is rated B/C by 538 with a 0.3% Democrat bias.
Then we have a poll that has been giving some shock to observers on Twitter which is a poll conducted by Emerson College on 1,567 likely voters between August 30th-31st putting the race a lot closer with Biden on 51% and Trump on 49% which is a difference of 3-points, uncomfortably close for many people in the Biden camp. One of the upsides for Biden is that he is over the 50% mark giving him the clear majority vote but what is to be remembered is that the race isn’t decided by a national vote win but by an electoral college win, a national poll this close does not guarantee Biden an Electoral College win. The poll also notes that Biden is ahead with the 65+ age voters with Trump losing ground on that front since the start of the pandemic but Trump is up with voters aged 30-49 and 50-64. The poll also highlights an improving approval rating for Trump (49% approve to 47% disapprove). Poll margin of error is 2.4% and it is rated A- by 538 with a 0.3% Democrat bias.
Then there is a poll conducted between August 24th-30th by AtlasIntel
on 4,210 likely voters which also puts it close with Biden on 49% and Trump on 46% which is a difference of 3-points. The poll includes multiple questions outside of the national vote poll including an approval poll giving Trump 52% disapproval and 46% approval, groups that approve of Trump include Republicans at 94%, men at 53%, those earning between $50k-$100k at 51% and those earning over $100k at 53%, those aged 45-64 at 50% and whites at 50%. 49% say Trump is handling the COVID pandemic terribly and 50% are more worried for those whose lives may be in danger from COVID compared to 42% more worried about the economic effect and 7% who don’t know, 45% say the public health crisis from covid is getting worse while 14% don’t know. The poll has a margin of error of 2% and is rated B/C by 538.
Finally, we have a poll by a little-known polling company called Léger which hasn’t been rated by 538. The poll was conducted from 28th-30th August on 861 likely voters and it gives Biden 49% and Trump 42% which is a difference of 7-points, a wider and more comfortable lead for Joe Biden, there were 6% who don’t know who to yet vote for but when prompted to make a choice of who they’d most likely vote for Biden moves up to 53% while Trump moves up to 45%, a difference of 8-points, again although the difference is only +1 point, it is of particular importance that Biden goes over the 50% mark here which is more solid. The poll also asked 1,003 Americans on who they think can do a better job on select subjects that included economy and jobs, COVID-19 pandemic, health system, immigration, police and law enforcement, taxes, federal budget, racial crisis, gun violence, climate change, terrorism, corruption, and the international image of the US, Trump was voted to handle terrorism and the economy/jobs better than Biden by a 4 and 2 point margin respectively while those asked said Biden would be able to handle everything else better than Trump with Biden getting the highest majority votes on handling of pandemic, health system, racial crisis, climate change and US international image.
Conclusion
So from what it appears there may be some possible movement towards Trump but more polls are needed to confirm this as there are several other polls that keep Biden with a wide lead.
Thank you for reading, I hope as time goes on and I do more of these posts I will be able to go into greater depth based on my previous polling observation posts! I will also be doing posts focusing on any interesting state polls as they come about.
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