Here I am going to do my predictions on the outcome of the US Senate elections and who I think will control the Senate after all is said and done. Also make sure to check out my post on the US Presidential Election from yesterday that goes over the polls and my own predictions on who will win and how.
Now let’s go over the Senate elections that are to be watched this election cycle…
US Senate Races to Watch and Predictions
My prediction is that the Senate will flip to a small Democrat majority. (Not enough to remove Donald Trump from office ((if he is re-elected)) if he is impeached again, unless enough Republican’s are willing to flip).
R53 – D47 – current Senate
D51 – R49 – my prediction after elections.
D50 – R50 – alternative outcome if sexting scandal lead to NC Senate R hold or if Rs pickup Michigan Senate seat. (in this scenario control is determined by who wins the presidency via the Vice-President)
R51 – D49 – alternative outcome if Rs also pickup Michigan Senate seat and Dems don’t flip NC Senate seat.
Naturally the Democrats could get a larger majority if they do well in places like Montana and Georgia and overperform and end up picking up some such as Kansas or Alaska for example which is being shown as possible by polls, although less likely.
For the Democrats they need to win at least 3-4 seats to get a majority in the Senate (3 seats if Joe Biden wins the Presidency as then although it will be a 50-50 split the Democrat Vice-President can break ties) or 4 seats if the Republican’s manage to hold the presidency. This is without taking any possible Democrat losses into account. The Democrats have at least 2-seats that are at risk of being flipped by the Republican’s, one of which is highly likely, this means they would need to flip 1-2 extra seats to guarantee some kind of majority.
There are at least 10-seats (11 if the later Georgia Special Senate Election is included) that the Democrats have a shot at taking that I will go over below.
Races to Watch and My Predictions (Democrat Targets)
Arizona: Seat will flip to Democrats Kelly candidate. (Likely Democrat favour)
Reason: McSally didn’t manage to win the Senate seat she contested in the 2018 Midterms in Arizona and was appointed by the Governor to the Senate seat she currently has due to the original incumbent (John McCain) dying. Due to Arizona’s democratic swings in 2018 and McSally’s performance back then I do not see her holding the seat, polls also have her consistently behind beyond the margin of error, with her opponent Kelly often over the 50% mark.
Prediction: Kelly (D) flips seat from McSally (R).
North Carolina: Seat will flip to Democrats (Lean Democrat favour)
Reason: My reasoning for this is probably the least confident out of the others, but merely that North Carolina is slowly making moves towards the Democrats and the polls currently consistently have it in the Democrats favour outside of the margin of error for this race.
There was recently some sexting controversy with the Democratic candidate which could possibly turn the race against him, although so far he has maintained a fair lead ignoring a couple of outlier polls.
At the same time there is also a good chance that Republican’s can retain the seat as the race is closer than that of the Arizona Senate race, I don’t see it being as much of a slam dunk for the Democrats, but I do think they have a very good chance of winning it.
Prediction: Cunningham (D) flips seat from Tillis (R).
Colorado: Seat will flip to the Democrats Hickenlooper candidate. (Likely Democrat favour)
Reason: Hickenlooper is popular in Colorado due to having been its Governor previously and he also gained some popularity due to his attempt to run for President for the 2020 election. Due to these reasons and the fact that Colorado leans to the Democrats I reckon he will flip this seat, so far polling indicates he is well ahead of the Republican candidate.
Prediction: Hickenlooper (D) flips seat from Gardner (R).
Montana: Seat will be held by R candidate. (Lean Republican favour)
Reason: Bullock is retiring as Montana’s Governor due to reaching its term limit, but this means he is popular in the state due to being its Governor and considering Montana is fairly friendly to Democrats at the federal state level (not presidential level) I think he has a sound chance of flipping the seat. But despite this the R candidate is still maintaining a very slight lead as of recently, I originally believed Democrats would flip this but now I do not think it will happen, but it is still very possible.
At the same time though this is a presidential election at the same time which means the Republican candidate will likely have a bit of a boost and polls do have it very close, often within the margin of error, and so it really can easily go either way.
Prediction: Daines (R) holds seat.
Iowa – Lean Democrat favour
The race for the Senate seat in Iowa has been getting closer and closer as we move towards the election, originally the Republican incumbent was favoured to hold the seat in most polls but this has since flipped towards being in favour of the Democratic challenger, but it is very hard to make a determination on who will win as it is still basically a tossup within the margin of error.
Prediction: Greenfield (D) flips seat from Ernst (R).
Maine – Lean Democrat favour
Collins has one of her most signficant challenges to holding her seat for the Republican’s in Maine, a state that is often a battleground between the two major parties. Polls seem to show that Collins is not favoured to win this time around and is favouring the Democrat challenger to flip the seat.
Prediction: Gideon (D) flips seat from Collins (R).
Georgia – Tossup (Lean Republican favour)
In the Georgia race Ossof is back up for the Democrats, he was the Democratic candidate in a 2017 Special House-seat election in Georgia which he ended up losing despite large funding and media coverage, it is now hoped he may instead be able to flip the Senate seat in Georgia to the Democrats.
Prediction: Perdue (R) holds seat.
There is also going to be a Special Senate Election in Georgia as well which will likely head for a run-off between Warnock (D) and either Loeffler (R) or Collins (R) later on next year which the Democrats have a chance at winning and could potentially determine control for the Democrats if they don’t perform as well in the current Senate races.
Alaska – Possible Chance (Likely Republican favour)
Although the Democrats are not running a candidate for Senate in the state of Alaska they are nonetheless backing an Independent who is willing to caucus with Democrats who is running against the Republican incumbent. Some polling have put the race into a tossup between the Democrat-backed Independent and the Republican incumbent.
Prediction: Sullivan (R) holds seat.
Texas – Possible Chance (Likely Republican favour)
There is limited hope that the Democrats might be able to flip a Senate seat in Texas this time, with the state slowly trending towards the Dems, although the challenge looks harder than it did in 2018, where they still lost. So it seems unlikely, but some polling does show it is close enough for it to be possible.
Prediction: Cornyn (R) holds seat.
South Carolina – Possible Chance (Likely Republican favour)
Interestingly the Senate race in South Carolina also appears to be tightening as well and serves as another possible seat for the Democrats to take in the race for a majority, but it likely won’t be easy here and the advantage remains with the Republican’s in South Carolina, but some polls have given both Graham (R) and Harrison (D) leads.
Prediction: Graham (R) holds seat.
Kansas – Possible Chance (Likely Republican favour)
Shockingly there is a chance that the Democrats could even pick up a Senate seat from deep-red Kansas, with some polls showing the race in a tossup with a slight favouring towards Republican’s. It will be impressive if the Democrats could pull this one off, limited polling available show it is possible, but more polling is realistically needed for a full determination.
Prediction: Marshall (R) holds seat.
Races to Watch and my Predictions (Republican Targets)
The Republican’s will mostly be on the defensive this time around and cannot afford to have more than 3 losses (they could take a couple more losses depending on if they can win some seats), there are 2-seats that the Republican’s have a fair chance at winning from the Democrats, one of which is highly likely. Let’s look at some of the races they are targeting that should be interesting to watch…
Alabama: Seat will flip to the Republicans. (Likely Republican favour)
Reason: Jones won due to luck last time in deep-red Alabama against a controverial candidate who was also disgraced by peadophillia accusations which all together lead to his defeat in the state. This time Jones will be facing off against Tuberville, who appears for whatever reason to be even more popular than even Sessions. It would seem this time Jones really does not stand much of a chance. Democrats can at least be happy in the sense that this will perhaps be their only loss in the Senate to the Republican’s.
A few outlier polls have shown a very small chance for Jones to hold on, but it is very unlikely.
Prediction: Tuberville (R) flips seat from Jones (D).
Michigan: Possible Chance. (Lean Democrat favour)
John James is back again for the Republican’s and trying to win a Senate seat in the state of Michigan, he came fairly close in 2018 against his challenger and this time it would appear James has an even greater chance of possibly flipping the seat as his challenger is seen as less popular and less charismatic than James’ 2018 opponent.
Prediction: Peters (D) holds seat.
Other Republican Targets…
Some other Republican Senate seat targets include Virginia, Minnesota and New Hampshire but I have chose not to go into greater detail in those as I strongly feel like the Democrats will easily hold on to these seats. But there is always room for a possible upset or two.
State Governor’s Predictions
Montana: Governor flips to Republican’s Gianforte candidate.
Reason: incumbent Bullock is not running for the Democrats in the Montana Governor election as he reached the term limit and so he is running for the Senate election instead which I think he has a fair chance at winning, but this means Bullock (being popular as he is in Montana) thus leaves the Governor election to a less popular Democrat to run against the Republican’s Gianforte who will be popular in Montana due to holding the Montana-at-large seat in the House, therefore likely flipping the Governor to him.
Prediction: Gianforte (R) wins Governor.
North Carolina: Possible Change but unlikely
Reason: Polls continue to show the Democrat incumbent Governor with a fairly comfortable lead over the Republican challenger. Of course though since North Carolina is a battleground state it is within the realm of possibility that Republican’s could flip the Governor, but for now it remains unlikely.
Prediction: Cooper (D) holds Governor.
And of course Vermont and New Hampshire, despite having Democrat leanings continue to have popular Republican Governors that are very unlikely to change this election. Some also possibly believe that the Missouri Governor has a chance of flipping to the Dems but I do not believe this will happen myself.
It will be exciting to see how my predictions go. See you for the after-election analysis the week after the election has taken place!
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