On 6th May there are going to be a whole large range of local elections due to the previous year’s local elections having been postponed due to the Coronavirus pandemic. There will be elections taking place in Scotland, Wales and England.
Assembly Elections
Specifically for Scotland and Wales they will both be holding elections for their devolved parliaments, Holyrood in Scotland which will be an indicator of how strong support remains for the SNP and nationalism in general, and the Senedd in Wales where we shall see if Labour will remain in office. As it stands for those two elections it does appear in Scotland that the most obvious outcome is a nationalist majority, possibly an outright SNP majority. The Alba Party created by Alex Salmond and only standing in the regional seats rather than single-constituencies looks as if it may not gain any seats at all or at the most, they may gain a couple.
Polls indicate that the main players will be the SNP, Scottish Greens, Labour, and Conservatives. Polls indicate that the Conservatives may be the biggest losers in the elections, but that many of these races are on a knifes-edge. The Scottish Greens could be the biggest winners in net gain of seats. Labour have moved up above the Conservatives in some of the recent polls and so they may not lose many or possibly any seats at all, and might even make one or two gains, but again many of their races are also down to the wire so it could really go either way for them. Either way SNP will certainly remain the largest party, it’s just whether they get an outright majority or not, again either way Nationalist parties will lead.
Recent polls for the Senedd elections in Wales have Labour on the defense against the Conservatives who seem to have risen up. The Welsh Nationalist Plaid Cymru party is hanging around in 3rd place, and so they will be the three main parties to watch in these elections. The Liberal Democrats, Greens, Reform UK and Abolish the Welsh Assembly (irony) Parties are all battling among each other below the three big parties in Wales, it’s unlikely they will make any big gains. It is of note that polling in Wales is not the most reliable, particularly for their assembly elections and so there may be some surprises in store. But generally, the expected outcome is that Labour will remain the largest party in Wales and may be held up in some form by Plaid Cymru if needed. The Conservatives are expected to make gains, whether it is enough to significantly change the power dynamic will remain to be seen.
It is of note that both the Scottish and Wales Parliament elections use parallel voting, in this case a mixture between first-past-the-post and party-list proportional representation. 16–17-year old’s are also able to vote in these elections if they have registered to do so, this is different to elections in England where you must be at least 18. Although 16-17 year olds can vote in Wales and Scotland they are exempted from the Police and Crime Commissioner elections (relevant to Wales in this case) where one must be at least 18 specifically for those elections.
There will also be an election for the Greater London Assembly’s 25 seats, the body gives oversight to the actions and policies of the Mayor of London and has the power via a two-thirds majority to change certain decisions made by the Mayor of London, such as on the Budget. The assembly is elected via a mixture of party-list proportional representation and first-past-the-post. As it stands Labour is the largest party here with 12 seats but it does not hold an outright majority, which requires one further seat which they will be aiming to obtain. It is likely they will remain the largest party either way.
Council Elections
Around 5,000 councillor seats are also up for election in England in 145 councils, 21 of which are county councils and the other 124 are unitary, district, and borough councils. Councils are either elected in thirds, halves, or entirely. There will also be some council-seat by-elections in Scotland and Wales.
Labour Defenses
Labour is battling to keep overall control of
- Bradford Council
- Calderdale Council
- Amber Valley Council
- Crawley Council
- Harlow Council
- Rossendale Council
- Norwich Council
- Plymouth Council
- West Lancashire Council
- Sheffield Council
Labour on a very bad night could lose…
- Bury Council (to NOC)
- Trafford Council (to NOC)
Conservative Defenses
- Brentwood Council will be a battleground between the Conservative and Liberal Democrats.
The Conservatives are fighting to keep overall control of
- North East Lincolnshire Council
- Thurrock Council
- Solihull Council
- Swindon Council
- Walsall Council
- Gosport Council
- Northumberland Council
Conservatives on a very bad night could lose…
- Worthing Council
- Suffolk Council
Targets
- The Conservatives will be hoping to gain control of Colchester, North Hertfordshire, Peterborough, Welwyn Hatfield (unlikely), Basingstoke and Deane, and Cornwall Councils.
- On a very good night the Conservatives might gain Southend-on-Sea Council.
- Labour will be hoping to gain control of Kirklees, Milton Keynes, Wirral, and Nuneaton and Bedworth Councils
- Labour and Conservatives will battle over control of Dudley, Basildon, Worcester, Nottinghamshire, and Pendle Councils.
- Labour and Conservatives will battle over Derby Council, although NOC likely to remain.
- Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives will battle for control over St. Albans, Maidstone, and Wiltshire Councils.
- Liberal Democrats and Labour will battle for control over Stockport Council (likely NOC).
- Cambridgeshire Council will be a battleground between Labour, Lib Dems, and the Conservatives (who hold majority).
- Chorley Council may be a Labour/Conservative battleground. Hartlepool Council will be interesting to watch between Labour and Conservatives.
- Labour and Lib Dems hope to make gains in Gloucester, and Gloucestershire Councils.
- Stroud Council is competitive among Conservatives, Labour, and Greens.
- North Northamptonshire and West Northamptonshire are two newly created unitary councils up for election and so will be of some interest to watch.
Other Elections
39 Police and Crime Commissioner elections are also happening, four in Wales and thirty-five in England, two being defended by Plaid Cymru, fourteen being defended by Labour, twenty being defended by the Conservatives, and two being defended by independent candidates.
There are also thirteen directly-elected mayor elections, which includes the highly-covered Mayor of London election. 8 of the mayoral elections are being defended by Labour, four are being defended by the Conservatives, and one that is currently vacant (Mayor of West Yorkshire) as the position has only just been established. As said the most watched election will likely be the London Mayoral election, although it is highly suspected that Labour’s Sadiq Khan will be re-elected.
Elections to watch out of the mayoral elections include Tees Valley, a Conservative defense against Labour, if Labour are able to take it back it may be an indication they can start pulling back ahead within their traditional heartlands. The newly created West Yorkshire mayoralty is set to be a battleground between the Conservatives and Labour, again it exists within traditional Labour territory so a win for Labour will be a goal to prove a comeback. Labour is also hoping to win the West Midlands mayoral election, although polls indicate the election leans Conservative.
There is also a strongly contested by-election for the House of Commons constituency of Hartlepool which was formerly held by a Labour MP who stepped down following sexual allegations. The constituency is one that heavily voted to leave the EU in 2016 and this is thought to be a large factor in the outcome of the election on the 6th, where from the looks of polling the Conservatives have a strong shot at flipping the seat. Considering the seat has been held by Labour since its creation in 1974 (excluding a short period where the previous incumbent was an Independent), a win here by the Conservatives will have big ramifications for Labour as it continues to show that Red Wall seats are still not safe.
So that’s a simple roundup of the elections that will be taking place on the 6th May and what ones will be interesting to watch. I hope you found this useful and/or interesting.
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