Featured image: Image by John Mounsey from Pixabay
It’s that time of the year again! Another round of local elections is upon us, taking place next week on the 5th May with results following probably mostly on the 6th May. And just like last year these local elections will be accompanied by an election of a legislative devolved assembly, last time it was the election of the devolved assembly in Wales, this time it will be Stormont in Northern Ireland.
With nationalist parties in Northern Ireland managing to get more seats in the House of Commons than unionist parties in the 2019 General Election many will be eager to see how these nationalist parties perform in the Stormont elections. As it stands both nationalists and unionists in Stormont have around equal representation give or take a few seats.
Of course, the executive of Northern Ireland runs on the principle of power-sharing between the nationalist and unionist groupings as a way to keep the peace following the Troubles and adoption of the Good Friday Agreement, so even if one grouping is larger in number than the other the Executive will proportionally represent the groups in a power-sharing government for Northern Ireland.
This is a good thing given history and is important to maintain to enable effective and balanced governing, especially when it comes to precarious issues. So, even if in the election the nationalists manage to get even more seats or the unionists manage to break luck, the executive will still remain reasonably balanced between the two.
Of course, though, if one grouping or the other gets a higher number of seats in the legislative then it can mean certain legislation is harder to pass which could put pressure on the power-sharing setup. But I am confident that solutions will be found to enable peaceful and effective governance for the populace.
So, the main thing that this election will be a sign of is possibly on signaling potential support for Irish reunification. If the nationalist parties did manage to get a certain chunk more seats than the unionists it could lead to advocation of a possible referendum for reunification.
The voting system used is a proportional one via the single transferable vote. What this means is that candidates do not simply win seats via simple majorities and there are several rounds where the poorest performing candidates are eliminated and their votes are transferred to other candidates based on the ranked preferences chosen by voters. This gives a more equal chance for various candidates to win, and better represent smaller parties and minority groupings, and makes it a lot harder for one party to win a large majority.
The last point is especially good for Northern Ireland as it means unionists and nationalists are both getting fair support, and the system better supports equal power-sharing of the executive.
The proportional Single Transferable Vote method will also be used in Welsh and Scottish local elections, which is why in Wales and Scotland you will often find councils run by coalition or minority administration rather than outright majorities more commonly found in England councils, as England local elections still largely use the simple majority first-past-the-post system or some other non-proportional system such as plurality at-large.
Local elections this year will have a focus on Scotland and Wales as all of their local authorities will be up for election. All of the London Borough councils will also be up for election in England. There will also be various other local authority elections in England but not close to the level of previous local elections.
England is a big and populated place though compared to Wales and Scotland and so England still will have 146 local authority elections in total, more than both Scotland (all 32 of its local authorities) and Wales (all 22 of its local authorities) combined. England will also have seven directly-elected mayoral elections taking place, including a brand new one for Croydon.
These local elections will likely see the Conservatives largely on the defense, especially with their poor position in national polls lately. Many people will say that national polls don’t = local outcomes and that national politics is not the same as local politics… and sure these statements are true to an extent, but it is very often that people will protest vote in local elections and national polls give a pretty good indication of what parties will take the brunt of that.
I encourage people to vote based on local issues, but many times this just won’t happen. Local elections have ended up becoming a very nationalised affair now a days, despite such elections only ultimately having any direct effect on local administration. Will Boris Johnson resign from his local party affiliates getting poor results in the local elections? I highly doubt it, if he has managed to cling on this far, I do not see poor local election results toppling him.
So, let’s take a closer look:
England – London Borough Council Elections
As said all 32 London Borough councils will have all of their councillors up for election. In 2018 Labour performed well among these councils getting their second best ever result there, while the Conservatives returned their lowest ever councillors to the London Boroughs. The Liberal Democrats themselves also gained control of two of these councils from the Conservatives in 2018.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats will likely be looking to improve upon their 2018 results here, with Labour hoping to obtain Barnet, Wandsworth and Westminster councils from the Conservatives. The Conservatives would probably want to make a comeback here but I don’t see it happening under the current circumstances, so their best bet will just be to hold on to what they have rather than gain much of anything.
It is to be noted that 25 of the London Borough councils will be elected based on new boundaries so it may have some effect on the outcome.
So out of these the ones to watch…
- Con defense in Barnet against Lab;
- Lab defense in Croydon against Cons;
- Lab defense in Harrow against Cons;
- Whether Cons can gain control of Havering from No Overall Control;
- Possibility of Merton going from Lab to No Overall Control;
- Cons performance in Kingston upon Thames, Richmond upon Thames and Sutton against the Lib Dems;
- Cons defense against Lab in Wandsworth;
- Cons defense against Lab in Westminster City.
England – Metropolitan Borough Council Elections
Some Metropolitan Boroughs in England will also be up for election, four of which will elect all of its councillors while 29 elect only one-third of its councillors. Labour largely dominates in these areas.
Ones to watch here include…
- Lab defense in Bury against possible No Overall Control;
- Whether Cons can maintain minority administration in Bolton;
- Lab defense in Calderdale against possible No Overall Control;
- If Lab can take control of Kirklees from No Overall Control;
- Lab defense in Leeds against possible No Overall Control;
- If Lab or perhaps even Lib Dems take control of Sheffield from No Overall Control, or if the Greens can increase their own numbers here.
- Cons defense against possible No Overall Control in Solihull (perhaps Lib Dems/Greens/Independents could form a coalition here if they knock out Con majority)
- Whether Lab or Lib Dems can take control of Stockport or if Lab maintains minority administration.
- Lab defense in Sunderland against possible No Overall Control;
- Con defense in Walsall against Lab;
- Whether Lab can take full control of Wirral.
England – District Council Elections
There will be some District Council elections in England, five electing all councillors two of which (Gosport and St. Albans) will be on new boundaries. Six District Councils will be electing half of its councillors while 49 District Councils will elect one-third of its councillors.
District Councils are areas where the Conservatives are largely better at competing so it will be interesting to see how they do here, most likely on the defense against Labour and the Liberal Democrats this time.
I would say elections to watch among these are…
- Cons defense against Lib Dems in Gosport;
- Cons defense against Labour in Newcastle-under-Lyme;
- Lib Dems defense against Cons in St. Albans;
- Lab defense against Cons in Hastings;
- Lib Dem performance in Brentwood against Cons;
- If Labour can gain Burnley from No Overall Control;
- Labour/Lib Dem performance in Colchester – maybe they could win enough seats to form a coalition?;
- If Labour can take Crawley from No Overall Control;
- Whether the Resident’s association in Elbridge takes control or retains Lib Dem coalition;
- Performance of Loughton Residents and Lib Dems in Epping Forest;
- Community Campaign/Lib Dem coalition defense against Cons in Hart;
- Lab defense in Hyndburn;
- Lib Dems/Independent Group coalition defense against Conservatives in Maidstone;
- Lab/Lib Dem coalition defense against Conservatives in North Hertfordshire.
- Conservative defense against possible Lab/Lib Dem coalition in Pendle.
- Lab/Lib Dem performance in Rugby.
- If Cons can retain minority control over Tunbridge Wells.
- Lab/Lib Dem performance in Welwyn Hatfield.
- Minority Labour defense of West Lancashire.
- Minority Con defense in Woking against Lab/Lib Dem.
- Minority Con defense in Worthing against Lab/Lib Dem.
England – Unitary Council Elections
Some unitary authorities in England will also be having elections as well. This includes five full unitary council elections, with Reading Borough Council electing on new boundaries. Somerset County Council will be becoming a unitary authority in 2023 and so elections electing twice as many councillors.
Cumbria County Council is also being replaced by two new unitary authorities, and so elections are taking place in shadow authorities (Cumberland/Westmorland and Furness) in anticipation for that.
North Yorkshire Council will also be a new unitary authority being elected in anticipation of its creation in 2023.
16 other unitary authorities will be electing a third of its councillors.
So, elections to watch out of these:
- Cumberland’s 46 councillor elections;
- Westmorland and Furness’s 65 councillor elections;
- North Yorkshire’s 90 councillor elections;
- Somerset’s 110 councillor elections;
- Lab/Lib Dem performance in Derby against Cons;
- How Lab performs in Hartlepool (currently Con/Ind coalition);
- Lab defense against Lib Dems in Hull;
- Lab/Lib Dem coalition defense against Cons in Milton Keynes;
- Whether a coalition can form in Peterborough against Con minority control;
- If Cons can retain minority control in Plymouth;
- Lib Dem defense against Cons in Portsmouth;
- Con defense against Lab in Southampton;
- How the Lab/Lib Dem/Ind coalition performs in Southend-on-Sea;
- Con defense against Lab in Swindon;
- Con defense against Lab in Thurrock;
- Con defense against Lib Dems in Wokingham;
England – Mayoral Elections
And finally in England are the seven directly-elected mayoral elections. Six of these elections will be for local authority mayors (Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, Watford, and a new one for Croydon). And an election for a combined authority mayor in South Yorkshire.
Mayoral elections use a two-round absolute majority system to elect the mayor. So, if no outright majority in first round the top two candidates advance, votes are transferred based on second preferences of voters, and that determines the winner.
Excluding Croydon and Watford, all of these positions are currently held by Labour mayors, Watford is held by a Liberal Democrat mayor. I am very much expecting Labour to retain all of its current mayors. Tower Hamlets has previously been interesting as it has been won by an Independent and local party previously, but I think overall Labour has the advantage.
I also expect Labour to win the new Croydon mayoral election as well due to them usually performing well in Croydon Borough council elections. But I do not see it as an impossibility for the Conservatives to win the mayoralty here, just that it is unlikely especially under current circumstances.
I expect the Lib Dems to retain the Watford mayor as well which they have so far won each time since its creation in 2002.
Bristol will also be having a legally-binding referendum on whether it should keep its own mayor (with the position established in 2012 following a different referendum) or go back to a committee system. The committee system means councillors would choose their own leader for the authority, which means it would normally be the head of the largest political grouping. Basically, similar to how the Prime Minister is chosen.
Scottish Local Elections
Pretty much all 32 local authority elections in Scotland should be interesting as they use the Single Transferable Vote and pretty much all councils either have a coalition or minority administration and so things could easily change in many of the councils following these elections.
The SNP will likely be looking to make gains, especially following its large-scale successes in the 2019 General Election. Labour will probably also be looking to make a comeback across the councils in Scotland as well, which it has seen collapse over the years. Lib Dems, Cons, Scottish Greens and Alba will also be looking to make gains.
As it stands 3 councils, Na h-Eileanan Siar, Orkney, and Shetland are controlled by Independents. All other councils are controlled by coalitions or minority administrations. Coalitions that exist can be unique as often parties like the Conservatives and Lib Dems will team up against the SNP to control the council, basically a unionist versus nationalist thing.
Labour on the other hand, despite being unionist, are more willing to coalition with the SNP on many of the councils. Independents are often also important parts of many of the coalitions as well. Minority administrations are largely SNP or Labour controlled.
So yeah, all of those elections are interesting to watch.
Welsh Local Elections
It’s a similar story for the 22 local authority elections in Wales which also use the Single Transferable Vote. Seven of the councils are Labour controlled, one Conservative controlled, one Plaid Cymru controlled, and two controlled by Independents. Labour, Lib Dems, and Plaid Cymru will very much be looking to make gains. Cons will probably mostly be on defense again.
All others are either controlled by coalitions or a minority administration, again due to Single Transferable Vote making it harder to get outright majorities. Independents are once again often important in such coalitions, coalitions include Plaid Cymru/Ind, Con/Ind, and one Lab/Ind, there is also a rainbow coalition of Ind/Lab/Plaid/Lib Dem in Pembrokeshire. The two councils under minority administration are both Labour, both of which Independents could prove pivotal in tipping the balance.
So, all of the councils with coalitions or minority control will be interesting to watch. Labour will also be on the defense in Cardiff, which could possibly go into No Overall Control if Cons and Lib Dems do well. Independents will be on the defense in Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil against Labour.
Plaid Cymru will very likely retain their one council in Gwynedd but I do not see them taking outright control of any other councils.
Thank you for reading. I always enjoy making these little election posts. Hopefully it was helpful in deciding which elections you want to watch, if you want to watch any.
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