Well, the results of the South Carolina and Michigan Republican primaries are in and the results are hardly surprising. But Nikki Haley is still clinging on to the race to the GOP nomination which so far has not been much of a race at all. It seems she is at least going to stick in there until Super Tuesday despite their still being no obvious sign of any kind of miraculous breakthrough. But there you have it.
But before we get to Super Tuesday we have a spate of Republican caucuses to go through first of all. Three of those caucuses will be taking place tomorrow which are the Michigan Caucus (I explained in my last post here why they have both a primary and caucus), the Idaho Caucus, and the Missouri Caucus.
We can assume that Trump will likely easily win in the Michigan caucus just like he did in the state’s primary although it is hard to find any polls on it I guess due to the general confusion of it all. In Idaho polls show that Trump has a very large lead over Haley ahead anywhere from the high 50s to mid-to-high 60s. For Missouri I could only find one poll for Trump v. Haley but it gives Trump a huge 70+ point lead.
So again, the polls would have to be very, very wrong for Trump to somehow lose to Haley. It is of note that the polls have been slightly overestimating Trump and underestimating Haley but not to any degree that is significant enough to make it questionable. Although some suggest this could mean the anti-Trumper Republican vote is larger than realised which could possibly hurt him in the presidential election if they do not turn out to vote for him.
After 2nd March there are then two further contests before Super Tuesday – first is the Republican District of Columbia (D.C) primary on the 3rd March and then the North Dakota Republican Caucus the following day. Unfortunately there do not seem to be any polls for the D.C primary but I reckon Trump will probably still win there over Haley, although perhaps Haley can tap into more moderate voters there. It is a similar story for North Dakota – no polls! But I am even more confident in saying Trump will likely win here though as well.
I am not really sure why Nikki Haley has decided to remain in the race until at least Super Tuesday because there really is just no signs she is going to get close to any single win anywhere over Trump.
As of now Trump sits on 122 delegates while Haley is on just 27 delegates (or 24 according to wikipedia?) I don’t know I never seem to be able to keep track of the totals on these bloody things. 1,215 is the winning number of votes required from delegates to become the GOP presidential nominee.
39 delegates are to be allocated in the Michigan caucus, 32 delegates are to be allocated in the Idaho caucus, 54 delegates are to be allocated in the Missouri caucus, 19 delegates are to be allocated in the D.C primary, and 29 delegates are to be allocated in the North Dakota caucus – so, many to take! Most of whom probably by Trump.
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