Well, my prediction for the US Presidential Election wasn’t too far off. I was wrong with Arizona and Georgia although I did say they could go either way and I was also wrong with Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district. But the rest was basically how it has come about with Pennsylvania being what it all pretty much came down to.
Even despite Biden winning it was still much closer than what the polls said it would be, which is what I had expected myself would happen in my prediction of the election outcome and so it was correct to have Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania as lean Democrat as they have come out closer than they should have, polls said Biden would win these states by 5+ points.
The polls were also wrong with Florida and Texas with Trump very much overperforming in those two states, with one of the reasons looking to be stronger support for Trump from the Latino voting blocs here, specifically in Florida the Cuban-American vote for Trump. Trump also performed better on the popular vote than he did in 2016 but of course Joe Biden has performed even better than Barack Obama in the popular vote who up until that point had held the record for highest popular vote of any presidential candidate, of which Biden will now take that record.
All of this is due to there being a much higher turnout than in previous elections, in fact it is said to be the highest turn out in an election for a century. Earlier in the night it seemed that the Republicans were going to win Georgia but this was part of the so-called red mirage that the Democrats had warned of in a number of states, where it looks like Trump is way ahead in the earlier vote counts but then the later vote counts he eventually drops down, this is due to many states counting mail-in ballots (which mostly skewed to Joe Biden) after the in-day ballots (which mostly skewed towards Trump), this was the case in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania where Trump maintained a lead, including an especially large lead in Pennsylvania, but then dropped off and lost the states after the mail-in ballots came in.
Georgia is certainly a historic win for Biden (assuming he does maintain it as there hasn’t been an official call yet as of writing this) but it does seem that Biden will win it as his lead continues increasing in the state. It would appear that large swings towards Joe Biden in the state’s capital of Atlanta is one of the major contributing reasons for Biden winning the state.
It’s a similar story in Arizona if Biden maintains it and wins it, it will be another historic state flip for the Democrats. It was for a time possible for Trump to take over the lead again and win the state but it now appears Trump is no longer winning enough of the remaining ballots from Maricopa county to take the lead.
But even if Biden were to somehow lose Georgia and Arizona he would still have enough electoral-votes from Pennsylvania alone (which has been called for him) to win the presidency, and so for Trump it certainly seems a done deal, even despite his challenges to the legitimacy of the vote in the courts which I highly doubt will make any difference to the outcome. I fully expect to see Joe Biden inaugurated on 20th January 2021.
One more thing of historic note to also mention is that although Biden didn’t win Florida or Ohio, he has still won the election, which is rather different to past elections where the winner of the presidential election almost always wins both of those states, which is why they are historically seen as bellwether states.
The polls were also not quite right on the Senate as well, for example on the Iowa Senate seat (where I was also wrong in my Senate prediction as well) and also the Maine Senate seat where Collins pulled off a quite extraordinary win despite not being ahead in the polls there, the fact that the Democrats risk not taking the Senate (Senate control is now going to be decided by two runoff Senate elections in Georgia in January 2021), is one of the big disappointments of the election for the party, realistically they would have wanted to win the Senate on election night rather than leaving it hanging in the balance until next year, causing remaining uncertainty.
The House of Representatives is also another interesting one as the Democrats majority there gets cut down into the single digits all the way from a 34-seat majority, it was again expected that the Democrats would in-fact either maintain or even increase their majority here, so it will be another eye-opener for the party and I myself believe that the Republicans have a genuine shot of taking the House of Representatives in the 2022 Midterm elections.
So, although Joe Biden has won the presidency for the Democrats, they are left with the headache that although Trump was defeated the fact that it was still as close as it was shows that Trumpism is still alive and well and that there is a strong possibility that Donald Trump will run again in 2024 and have a good chance of winning.
As well as that the Democrats will have a headache to also contend with if they do not manage to win over the Senate in January as it will make it harder for their administration to get legislation through Congress, and they live with the overshadowing worry that the Republicans have a very good chance of taking the House in 2022 – so that even if the Democrats fail to win the Senate later next year but take it in the 2022 Midterms, they may instead lose the House and be stuck in basically the same predicament.
Another thing about not having the Senate is not being able to have control over confirming nominees for the Supreme Court or having the power to possibly expand the Supreme Court, which some Democrats had talked about after Republicans rushed through the Amy Coney Barret nomination, which means control of the Supreme Court will be firmly in Conservative hands for possibly the next 2 or more years.
So, when you think about it, the outcome is bitter-sweet, but for many the fact that Donald Trump is out remains good enough for them – for now.
Oh yeah and very quickly on the Governor elections I got my predictions on those correct but that wasn’t too hard as there were not many and most were not competitive.
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