An interesting parliamentary by-election will be taking place today. It is shaping up to be a test of the Conservatives and Boris Johnson’s electoral confidence of which lately we have seen backsliding in the polls over recent weeks, especially in light of controversies relating to whether or not Christmas parties took place at Downing Street by Cabinet, Prime Ministerial, and Ministry staff, potentially directly involving members of the Cabinet and even possibly the Prime Minister themselves during the lockdowns in December of 2020 where many of us would have had to spend Christmas away from family and friends.
The North Shropshire by-election was already controversial for the Conservatives as its MP, Owen Paterson who has held the seat since 1997 (a year before I was born which is odd to think about), had resigned due to facing suspension from the House of Commons due to having broken advocacy rules and also faced the possibility of a recall petition which as such may have triggered a by-election anyway if he had chosen not to resign. What brought further controversy were the attempts by Johnson’s government to block Paterson’s suspension from Parliament at the time, but the pressure against Paterson was untenable and so for the Government it seemed a badly thought out move.
Lobbying sleaze has been something that had been causing some amount of controversy for the Conservatives at the time, especially with the David Cameron Greensill fiasco earlier this year, which for him was embarrassing as his Conservative administration had spoken for a toughening of lobbying rules.
Lobbying is a perfectly normal part of a democracy but MPs are only meant to lobby on behalf of their constituents. But the position of an MP can afford them to be more influential at lobbying than the general public due to their position and connections, which is why lobbying rules exist to make sure that MPs do not over-reach by acting within their own interests or that of close family, any other jobs they have, and associates, or whereby it could lead to something to gain for the MP in question, such as a monetary benefit. This is why it is also important for MPs to declare any other jobs they have or any that their close family have that could possibly influence them, which would be sleazy lobbying – the bad kind.
The North Shropshire constituency first came into being from 1832 as a two-seat constituency and existed until 1885, the Conservatives during this time consistently won the seats apart from one instance where the Whigs picked up one of the seats before the Conservatives won it back. Eventually this constituency was split up into four new ones in 1885, with Oswestry being what is today North Shropshire (more or less), Oswestry was also held consistently by the Conservatives apart from an instance in a 1904 by-election where the Conservatives temporarily lost it to the Liberal Party.
Oswestry was abolished and replaced with North Shropshire (with slightly amended boundaries) from 1984 where it has been safely held by the Conservatives in each election. But could this by-election spell a new defeat for the Conservatives within the constituency? If so, it would be a major upset for the Conservatives and put Boris Johnson’s already unstable position into greater uncertainty, even possibly paving the way for a challenge of Boris Johnson’s confidence. It would seem that Boris Johnson’s teflon has gone to his head, with his questionable behaviour as of late.
It will potentially be a longshot but if there is enough turnout that consistently focuses on one opposition party then it might certainly flip. The best bet would be to vote for the Liberal Democrats who have better chances in many seats that would historically be considered as Tory safe seats as they are more fiscally aligned with Conservative voters. In such a constituency it is extremely unlikely for Labour to win and if anything they will merely split the vote between them and the Liberal Democrats allowing the Conservatives to come up through the middle and retain the seat. It is going to need to be one of those so-called tactical voting moments for those who are aligned against the Conservatives.
As for my own prediction I believe that this hill is one too high to climb at this time and although the polls show that the Conservatives would certainly lose dozens of seats if an election was held, North Shropshire would likely not be one of them. Of course we do have the wild card that it is a by-election and sometimes odd things happen during by-elections, and also the aformentioned wildcard of the ex-MP being disgraced, and all the allegations and controversy surrounding Boris Johnson and his government.
But I still feel like without some kind of opposition electoral pact in place the Conservatives will probably come up and clinch the seat. There is also the fact that North Shropshire was an area that supported BREXIT so if enough issue still remains over that then the Liberal Democrats may still be tainted on that in North Shropshire. But there is also the chance that Conservative voters who are unhappy with Johnson could be lost to parties such as Reform UK (formerly the BREXIT Party) which could potentially increase the chance, if other circumstances align, for the seat to flip.
Under any normal circumstances this election would be an insignificance and a certain Conservative hold, but we are in strange and unusual times, and so it is still one to watch.
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