Hey all. Well the big day is right around the corner and things are still not looking too good for Trump. What makes it different this year from 2016 is that polls are showing Biden generally over the 50% mark and also with a much wider lead in the national ballot overrall, which would seem to make it very likely that he should win the election, although it still isn’t a guarantee of course.
In 2016 although Hillary was ahead in state polls by a similar margin, she didn’t do as well as Biden seems to be doing in the national ballot polls and she was often under the 50% mark (in the mid to high 40s) in battleground states polls and so there was a lot more room for movement and unpredictability, which is exactly what happened. Right now this isn’t the case and it remains difficult to find any possible movement towards Trump as there just doesn’t appear to be enough undecideds.
Another thing to consider was the unpopularity of Clinton and all of the conspiracy thoeries and other bad things that followed her around like a shadow, this is generally not what Biden has attached to him and Biden has the benefit of a connection with one of the most popular US President’s and first black president, as well as decades of experience in the Senate and US politics in general. He is certainly attracting the support of seniors more so than Trump and he is also mostly up in each demographic and age group over Hillary, meanwhile Trump has generally maintained his 2016 groupings (and hasn’t really increased them), apart from the senior group which has moved towards Biden.
More and more evidence exists than 2016 to say that there is more reason to believe Trump will lose this time than not. But nothing is impossible I guess and we won’t truly know who has won until all is said and done. But I am going to put up two pictures below, one that is entirely based off of my interpretation of the current polls and then another under that where I tweak it to match my own predictions as a bit of fun. So let’s get to it.
As can be seen the polls show Biden could be in for a very big win, at least based on my own interpretation of the polls. If the polls are exactly correct then this should be the general outcome, but although polls can be fairly accurate most the time they are not 100% accurate and so it is likely some things on the above map will be different, which is where my own prediction comes in on what I think will happen below…
Now my prediction may seem a lot more scary but it still gives Biden the win and I think that he has a really, really good chance of holding states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania which is what will get him the win.
I am predicting Biden won’t win states such as Ohio, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina but I could also easily be wrong on this, but I think Trump may just to be able to barely hold on to these states, but as can be seen it possibly won’t be enough for him to win a 2nd term.
I look forward to seeing how close my prediction will be. But yes, I do believe that Joe Biden will win and that Donald Trump won’t win a 2nd term.
Now next up I will be going on to my Senate outcome prediction and also a look at some Governor races. I will not be doing a prediction on the House of Representatives this year as I strongly believe that the Democrats are going to easily hold the House, possibly even with a slightly increased majority.
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