Well, it is that time of the year again – November – specifically in early November there are usually a number of elections that take place in the US, most specifically local elections within the states, including a number for state legislatures. Some special elections may also sometimes be lumped into this mini-election day that happens in the years between a Midterm election and Presidential election (the two big-boy elections in the US).
These little election days are not always much to look into, unless you are really interested in the smaller very local elections, but this year there is certainly one very important election taking place today that is shaping up to be quite exciting. This is the Governor election in the US state of Virginia, this state has been favourable to Democrats over the last few years, especially during the Trump administration. Virginia has been a state that has been trending blue since 2009, but that does not mean from time to time that there will not be upsets, the state still does teeter on the edge of being a swing state, and so is not to be underestimated.
Although polls started out favourable to Democrats for the Virginia Governor race, as the election has drawn closer the polls have become far tighter well within tossup territory, although perhaps still with a very slight favouring to the Democrat candidate, but even then, this is well within the margin of error and so could go either way. Many polls right now have the race to within 1-point (usually with the Dem candidate up by 1-point) and so is going to most likely be a nail biter for both sides.
Many people have been blaming the Democrats for a poor Governor campaign in the presence of a more energised Republican one within the state, Youngkin (the Republican candidate) certainly seems to have the momentum in this area, but will it be enough?
The Democrats do have the advantage in that they do have the votes there to win, it is whether they can get them to turn out or not, as it stands early voting favours Democrats as it usually does (although perhaps not as much as they would like it to, some indications also point towards higher early voting in rural areas that may also favour the Republicans as well, but nonetheless the Dems will still by far be the overall beneficiary of early voting), but again will it be enough to get them over the line in the face of possibly high Republican turnout on the day itself?
Another advantage for the Democrats is that the candidate (Terry McAuliffe) is more well known in the state due to having previously been its Governor and therefore may also be viewed as more experienced and the ‘safer’ option.
On the night as the results come in there will be some important counties and cities to be watching that will be integral to either win within or perform very well within to have a chance of winning the election altogether. One of these is Loudoun, usually Democrats perform well here but it was once favourable to the Republicans, it is quite a wealthy county and one known for its suburbs, if on the night the Democrat candidate performs well here then there is a good chance the Republican candidate will not win, but if on the other hand Youngkin performs good here then that will spell bad news for McAullife.
Another county to watch is Virginia Beach, one of which is integral for the Republican candidate Youngkin to hold on to, if he fails to win here then it will most likely be an early night and a Democrat win statewide.
Places the Democrats will want to hold on to include Brunswick, Charles City, Greenesville, Northampton, Sussex, Hopewell, Staunton, Suffolk, and Winchester, these will be interesting to watch as they can be close and if the Democrats perform poorly, they may lose a number of these which may indicate a Republican win.
For Republicans they will want to hold on to Chesterfield, James City, Prince Edward, Stafford, Surrey, Chesapeake, Lynchburg, Radford, and as already said Virginia Beach, poor performances or losses here by the Republican candidate will likely indicate a Democrat win for the Governor.
But of course, any better performance by either candidate in a typically Republican/Democrat leaning/favouring county/city will be telling of who will or is most likely to win. But I have just listed the ones that will be of most interest to keep an eye on.
The Candidates
Terry McAuliffe – Democratic Party
McAuliffe is probably the bigger of the two candidates in terms of being known within the state of Virginia, although being the biggest name does not always necessarily equal a good thing, as always it depends on how people see them and what they have done in office in the past, you want the popularity to be largely favorable rather than largely negative. Many Republicans will view him likely in a negative light, while many Democrats will view him in a positive light, but it is the view of the moderate voters that usually comes into it, rather than those that just normally vote down party lines, if enough moderates have turned to have a negative view of McAuliffe, then that is bad news.
Sometimes being a fresher and newer face on the scene is beneficial to being an older has-been, many may want something fresh rather than more of the same, those who are disillusioned then may be more likely to switch over their vote to the Republican candidate if they are dissatisfied with the Democrats bringing back an older face rather than someone who is more likely to bring wanted change.
McAuliffe has after all previously been Governor of Virginia, in a light this can also be a good thing as well, as I previously stated many may opt to go with him as the safer more experienced option, as new can also mean less experienced and less sure of what will actually happen, so those who are happy with the status-quo would more than likely vote for McAuliffe.
One thing for McAuliffe that is a problem is his less-inspiring campaign compared to that of Youngkin’s campaign, this probably has not done him favours in helping to turn out the Democratic vote, and if there is a lower Democratic turnout to the polls, it could spell the nail in the coffin on election night.
McAuliffe has also been using the Trump scare card to try and get more Democrats out to vote by framing Youngkin as a Trumpist-backed candidate. Although it may work, it can also backfire and be seen as a desperate last gasp of his Governor campaign, this is more so the case if many view the case of Trump losing in 2020 equaling him no longer being an issue, and although this may seem like a silly thought, there are a number of people who think in this way. Of course, Trump certainly still does have the momentum to win a future presidential run under the right circumstances, but many may choose to have not thought about this and so dismiss it, and become rather flustered whenever Trump is brought back up again, and merely view it as desperate scaremongering.
Whatever it is, polls have changed little in the face of bringing Trump up.
McAuliffe also faces issues on the federal level that could play into hurting his strive for the Governorship, these include signs of Biden’s approval slipping, and also the fiasco with the massive spending bill currently deadlocked in the Senate, due to the moderates Manchin and Sinema, both elected Democrats in areas that have and do favour Republicans. These events of sliding approval and Democrat stalling (considering it is being done by members of their own party) may cause a lack of enthusiasm down the ballot, although it would not be a major reason for a McAuliffe loss, just something that may play into it.
Education has also been thrust into the limelight by Youngkin’s campaign, framing McAuliffe as someone who supports keeping parents “out of the classroom”, meaning less parental interference within the school boards decisions on curricula, one especially major part of this is how children are being educated on the subject of racism that Youngkin has managed to weaponize against McAuliffe.
McAuliffe’s campaign has been working on increasing the black turnout on election day, which data shows may not have as good a turnout in this election than previous elections in Virginia. His campaign has brought out big names such as Barack Obama, Vice President Kamala Harris, and prominent activist and former Democrat Georgia legislator Stacy Abrams to try and help in this effort.
Glenn Youngkin – Republican Party
Youngkin, the person that may win back Virginia for the Republicans, or perhaps just another who will lose against possibly stronger-than-expected Democratic pushback within a state that is now favourable to the Democrats. For Youngkin this will either be career-making or perhaps a dud in the water after all is said and done. But the chance for him to pull an upset is very possible, and he is sure doing his best to bring that into reality with his optimistic and high-energy campaign that may very well grab him the turnout he needs to win.
Although Youngkin has been endorsed by Trump and has adopted some of his phrasing and mannerisms, he has nonetheless made sure to keep his distance from the man who could be the poison to his success, instead he has centered the campaign around himself and Virginia’s future. He is a Republican with a vision of a post-Trump surge for the Republican party, and that I think is certainly one of the integral ingredients needed to pull out a win within the current political environment and build up momentum, especially with the Midterms coming up next year, which are beginning to look ominous for the Democrats, although it is still far too early to be making any predictions on that front, politics can be a fast-changing thing.
Youngkin also hopes his own victory will mean a victory for the Republicans in taking the state’s lower house legislature which is also up for election today, allowing Republicans greater control over legislative affairs in Virginia, and enabling Youngkin to do more as Governor. Although he is hopeful on this, it is less likely of an outcome than him winning the Governorship, but is nonetheless certainly still possible.
As stated above one of his major stances is allowing parents greater influence within the state’s school boards and has pledged to end critical race theory on day one if he is elected, saying that not everything should be viewed through the lens of race, basically snubbing the Democrats.
Campaign Finance (Donations/Raised)
When we look at the financial situation of both campaigns, we see that Youngkin has raised more money than McAuliffe but despite this has spent less money, with the McAuliffe campaign having spent more money. Both have also broken fundraising records in Virginia, making it the most expensive Governor election in the state so far, with both candidates having raised a combined $117 million, double that of the previous record.
Youngkin himself poured $20 million from his own finances into his campaign, while raising another $15.4 million dollars (Oct 1st-21st), which includes a $3.5 million loan (yikes). McAuliffe on the other hand raised $12.9 million (Oct 1st-21st).
Spending totals paint a different picture though, with Youngkin having spent $11 million while McAuliffe spent $18.8 million on his campaign.
My Prediction
Predictions are very tough to make in this circumstance when it is a tossup and it can also be hard to be free of any potential bias one may have which can also skew a prediction and make it less impartial and sometimes also unrealistic or unreasoned. Truly I do not know who will win and pretty much everyone should admit the same, it is a tossup and there is no safe bet as it stands. It could go either way, that is the simple truth of the matter.
So, my guess on who wins goes upon the turnout and the momentum, which I think the momentum is behind Youngkin and I have a feeling that turnout for the Democrats is not going to be what they had hoped it would be, and that there will be higher than usual turnout for the Republican candidate due to the well-conducted campaign. So, I am going to predict that Youngkin manages to edge it – BUT I could easily be wrong.
Predictions are as always to be taken with a grain of salt and is more something I do for fun rather than in any serious fashion. I am also going a bit against the grain I think, many others who make predictions, and have a longer history of doing so, predict that McAuliffe will screech out a win. But I think such a prediction is going on a safer bet as Virginia does favour Democrats and McAuliffe is a well-known name in the state’s politics.
Please do not use my prediction to make any financial bets on who you think will win, use your own judgement, I shall not be held responsible for basing any bets made on my prediction! Better yet, I would not bet at all, I have never been a fan of it and it can be risky for obvious reasons, especially in a race like this.
Other Elections?
Virginia will also be electing a Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General, which are expected to be retained by Democrats despite the tossup of the Governor election itself. Maybe if Democrats have a really bad night here, they will also lose them, but as of now it seems unlikely, but such a possibility does remain.
There is also a Governor election and legislative elections for the state of New Jersey but these will very likely be Democrat wins, with perhaps a few seat changes in the legislature, but nothing major enough to change the control from the Democrats.
It depends on if you believe in the one term curse that has been active since the 1970s, as Democratic Governor’s elected since then have only managed a single term and been unable to get re-elected. Will this be broken this time, or will the curse strike again? If you go by polling the Democrat should win a second term, but if you believe in the curse then the polls should be wrong. For me, I am going with the data and the fact that New Jersey is a very blue state now a days.
There are also numerous low-level elections across several different US states that you can look into if you are really into elections, no matter where they are held and how much significance they hold for just the local area or beyond.
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