Well, the local elections have now concluded and all the results are in. Let’s go over them, and highlight some of the interesting ones.
Senedd and Holyrood Parliament Elections
These elections went overall as was expected although with some slight overperformances for some parties in certain areas. For example, in the Welsh Senedd elections Welsh Labour performed well in defending their seats against the Welsh Conservatives of which were expected to make some potential gains in the constituencies, but in the end only made one gain from Labour in this area (Vale of Clwyd) and also a gain from the Lib Dems in Brecon and Radnorshire, eliminating them from the constituencies. Welsh Labour also made a gain from Plaid Cymru in Rhondda.
Since Labour did well in holding their constituency seats, they would naturally receive less seats in the regionals as that is how the electoral formula works, they still managed one gain here nonetheless. But, the Conservatives performed best in the regionals where they made most of their pickups, coming mostly from what were the remnants of UKIP. Plaid Cymru also performed well in the regionals, enabling them to finish off with a net gain, despite a loss to Labour. The regionals also enabled the Liberal Democrats to hold on to one seat in Wales.
So overall in the Senedd it is basically a victory for Welsh Labour and also a good result for the Welsh Conservatives as they managed 5 net gains. Welsh Labour was one seat off of having an outright majority so it is quite regrettable they lost the one seat to the Conservatives in the constituencies, but it could have been a lot worse, they will still easily remain in power in Wales on 30-seats via a coalition with Plaid and/or the Lib Dem seat.
There were also five Police and Crime Commissioner elections in Wales, here again Labour did well, gaining the North Wales region PCC from Plaid Cymru, the other four were retained by their respective parties (three Labour and one Plaid Cymru).
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Then we have the Holyrood elections. As was expected the SNP easily remained the largest party by far but ended with one seat off of an outright majority, having gained seats from the Scottish Conservatives (Edinburgh Central, and Ayr) and Scottish Labour (East Lothian) in the constituencies and managing to hold on to all their seats here as well, despite the threat of potential Conservative gains that never came to fruition. The Lib Dems also held on to their four remaining constituency seats in Scotland in the face of SNP gains.
Labour managed to hold on to Dumbarton and Edinburgh Southern which the SNP had hoped to gain, while the Conservatives held on to Aberdeenshire West which was an SNP target, and also held four other seats in Scotland here.
Again, since the SNP performed so well in the constituencies that meant the regional list seats were a lot more favourable to the other parties due to how the electoral formula works. This enabled the Conservatives to go up from net losses to no losses, and the Scottish Greens finished off here with a net gain of two seats, not as good as what some polls said it’d be (a number of polls showed they could have gained as many as 5). The Lib Dems did less well here and lost their only regional seat, leaving them with a net loss as they only retained their seats in the constituencies.
Alex Salmond’s Alba Party failed to make any gains in the regionals, which the most recent polls had predicted correctly, at most they may have gained one seat but clearly this didn’t happen.
And so, to no one’s surprise it comes down to a SNP-Scottish Greens coalition again easily keeping the SNP in power. The outright majority hoped for by the SNP did not happen but it was going to be a tough one nonetheless, they still finished up one seat but just one off of a majority, again regrettable for them they were unable to take just one more of their target seats from the Conservatives or Labour in the constituencies. Nonetheless, the SNP are still aiming for Indyref2 after this result, we shall see how that comes about but I can only imagine there will likely be some legal clashes as Boris Johnson is likely not to budge, and is likely happy the SNP did not obtain an outright majority as to him that means there is less of a mandate for another independence referendum.
The Local Council Elections and Hartlepool By-Election
Of course, one of the biggest elections was the Hartlepool House of Commons constituency by-election, where the Conservatives won with over 50% of the vote, which is a devastating blow to Labour in what was once a solidly safe seat for them and a continuing trend of losses in the North of England to the Conservatives that begun in 2019. The loss prompted a Shadow Cabinet reshuffle by Labour leader Kier Starmer, of which itself met mixed controversy between Labour Moderates and Corbynistas.
As is the most apparent it’s clear that in the local council elections Labour did not do as well as they really should have given, they are not the ruling party, but as we know politics is weird lately and there seems to be a political realignment going on following BREXIT. It was most clear in the North of England that Labour was still falling to the Conservatives across numerous councils, but we can also point towards the South of England where there are signs that the Conservatives are starting to, perhaps, decline in the face of Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
But without doubt the Conservatives are the overall biggest winners here, gaining over 200 Council Seats and winning a net of 13 Councils – many from No Overall Control and others from Labour – while Lab lost control of a net 8 Councils and over 300 council seats. The Liberal Democrats were off to a bumpy start at first, losing seats in places to the Conservatives and others, but then started making a comeback in the South finishing with a Council gain and net gain of 7 council seats. Another very notable party are the Green Party who did very well in these local elections, although they did not gain any Councils, they still managed a net gain of 88 Council seats from both Conservatives and Labour, with them performing best in Bristol.
Below I shall list the main losses, gains, and also big seat movements within councils.
Conservatives
Amber Valley – Cons gain this directly from Labour after winning 9 seats from them.
Basildon – Cons gain this from No Overall Control after winning 4 seats, 2 from Labour, 2 from Others.
Basingstoke & Deane – Cons gain this from No Overall Control after winning 4 seats. Lab lost 8 seats, Lib Dems lost 2, Others gained 6.
Cannock Chase – Cons gain this from No Overall Control after winning 9 seats from Labour.
Cornwall – Cons gain this from No Overall Control after winning 19 seats, from Lib Dems and Others.
Dudley – Cons gain this from No Overall Control, winning 12 seats, 11 from Labour and 1 from Others.
Harlow – Cons gain this directly from Labour after winning 7-seats from them.
Maidstone – Cons gain this from No Overall Control after winning 5 seats, 4 from Lib Dems, 1 from Others.
Northumberland – Con gain from No Overall Control, by winning 1 seat from Labour. Lab also lost two seats to the Greens here.
Nottinghamshire – Con gain from No Overall Control, with them winning six seats from Labour, Labour also lost another 2 seats to Others.
Nuneaton & Bedworth – Big gain from No Overall Control for Cons here, with them gaining 10 seats, all from Labour.
Pendle – Cons gained this from No Overall Control after winning a seat from Labour.
Southampton – Cons gained this Council directly from Labour by winning 7 seats, 6 from Lab, 1 from Others. Big blow to Labour.
Welwyn Hatfield – A Conservative gain here after winning 5-seats, 4 from Labour 1 from the Lib Dems.
Worcester – The Cons gained this from No Overall Control, Labour lost four seats, two to the Cons, one to Lib Dems, one to Greens, giving the Cons a 1-seat majority.
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Buckinghamshire – Cons still have a big majority here, but they did lose 10-seats, 5 to Others, 3 to Lib Dems, 1 to Labour, 1 to Greens.
Hertfordshire – Remains Cons, but they lost 5-seats, to Lib Dems and others.
Kent – Cons still hold large majority here, but lost 6 seats nonetheless, to Lab, Greens, and Others.
Shropshire – Although Con hold, they still lost 6 seats, 3 to Greens, 2 to Lib Dems, and 1 to Labour.
Surrey – Although a Conservative Hold, they still lost 14-seats here, 7 to Others, 5 to Lib Dems, 1 to Labour, and 1 to Greens.
Worthing – the Conservatives almost lost this council with Labour taking six seats, five of which came from the Cons. The Cons held on by just one seat.
Wiltshire – Here the Cons held but lost 7-seats, 6 of which were to the Lib Dems.
West Sussex – Cons lost 8 of their seats here, spread across various parties. They still maintain control.
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Cambridegeshire – One of the few Conservative Council losses, Interesting as also along lines with the mayoral contest Cons lost, they also lost the Council to No Overall Control after losing 8 seats, 5 to Lib Dems, 2 to Labour, 1 to Others.
Castle Point – Cons lose this to Independents after losing 3 seats to Others.
Isle of Wight – Cons lose this to No Overall Control after losing 5 seats to Others.
Tunbridge Wells – this one to No Overall Control after they lost six seats, 4 to Lib Dems, 1 to Labour, and 1 to Others.
Labour
Durham – Big loss for Labour here, losing it to No Overall Control after losing 21 seats, 14 to the Cons, 3 to Lib Dems, 3 to Others, and 1 to Greens.
Plymouth – Labour lost this to No Overall Control after losing six seats to the Conservatives.
Rossendale – Labour lose to No Overall Control after losing two seats to the Conservatives.
Sheffield – Another big blow for Labour here, losing this to No Overall Control after losing 8-seats in face of Green and Lib Dem gains.
West Lancashire – Labour lost this to No Overall Control after losing three seats, one to the Cons and two to Others.
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Hastings – Lab majority, but still 5-seat loss, 4 to Cons, 1 to Greens.
Ipswich – Still a Lab majority, but they did lose 6-seats, all to the Cons.
Oldham – Still a Lab Hold, but they lost six seats, 4 to Cons, 2 to Others.
Rotherham – Although Lab Hold, the Cons still gained 20-seats here, from both Labour and Others.
Sandwell – Lab Hold, but they still lost 9-seats, all to the Cons.
Stevenage – Lab Hold, but they lost 6-seats, 5 to Cons, 1 to Lib Dems.
Sunderland – Although a Labour Hold, they still lost 9-seats in this heartland, 6 to the Cons, 3 to Lib Dems.
Warrington – Although Labour held this, they still lost 9-seats, all to the Conservatives.
Wakefield – Again Labour Hold, but still 6-seats lost to the Cons.
Libs and Greens
St. Albans – The Liberal Democrats soul council gain in this election, gaining it from No Overall Control by taking 5-seats, 3 from Lab, 1 from Cons, and 1 from Others.
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Bristol – Remains No Overall Control, but it is one of the Greens best Council results, with them winning 13 seats from Labour making them the joint largest council party here alongside Labour. Cons kept 14 seats, Lib Dems kept 8.
Oxfordshire – Remains No Overall Control, but Cons lost 9 seats here, Others lost 3, Lib Dems gained 8 seats, Greens gained 3, Labour gained 1. Lib Dems now sit with 21 seats here to the Cons 22.
Stroud – Remains No Overall Control, but Greens gained five seats here from Cons and Lab. This gives them 13 seats to Cons 20 and Labs 15.
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Hartlepool – Is an interesting one due to the by-election as well. Here an Independent coalition lost control of Hartlepool Council after Cons won 10-seats, 7 from the Independents, and 3 from Labour. The council is now No Overall Control.
Mayoral and London Assembly Elections
The mayoral elections were more mixed, the Conservatives managed to hold the Midlands and Tees Valley but lost the West of England and more unexpectedly, Cambridgeshire and Peterborough.
More specifically Tees Valley was a blowout for the Conservative incumbent winning with over 70% of the vote, again in an area that was once Labour heartland. For Labour the West of England mayoral gain was not completely unexpected and shows that in some traditional Labour areas it is possible for them to pull back. And if anything for Labour an unexpected win of the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoral also showed us other areas they may be able to play in against the Conservatives, I think we can say that the strong BREXIT remain support in this area likely played a factor, as well as some good tactical voting by opposing party supporters.
Labour also held on to the mayoralties in Liverpool despite the recent controversies in the Labour run council here, and more specifically the former Mayor of Liverpool having left in disgrace. But the Conservatives are not at all popular here, the closest challenger was an independent in the Liverpool race who managed to take it to 2nd preference, but Labour prevailed in the end.
Labour also won the newly created West Yorkshire Region mayoralty on the 2nd preference against the Conservatives, although this is good for Labour again as it is in a traditional heartland, it does mean that the Batley and Spen House of Commons constituency will have a by-election as Labour’s winning candidate sat there. This could be another potential pickup for the Conservatives, although it likely won’t be as easy as Hartlepool, but it will certainly be a worry for Labour, and I imagine they will likely bide their time over more so this time, perhaps also choosing a more strategic candidate.
Then we head over to London where it was strongly suspected that Labour’s Sadiq Khan would be re-elected as London Mayor, which he was. But it was a bit closer than was expected, with the Conservative candidate flipping two of the mayoral constituencies from Khan and forcing it on to decision of 2nd preferences, which went against some poll predictions that said Khan would win outright on the 1st round with 60% of the vote. It is possible that if the Conservatives had chosen a better candidate and put more focus on the race, they may have possibly been able to get a narrow win.
In the London Assembly election all of the constituency seats were retained by their respective parties (Conservatives and Labour) with no changes, but the regional proportional results of the remaining seats were more interesting, with Labour Party losing a seat, and the Conservatives, Lib Dems, and Green Party each making a net gain, with the remainder of UKIP (rebranded as the BREXIT Alliance here) being eliminated. This means a likely Lab-Lib-Green coalition rather than a Lab outright majority, with Conservatives remaining as opposition.
I also want to give a mention to the Bristol mayoralty race, as again we see the upsurge of the Green Party, although Bristol is one of the places they usually do fairly well in, they have certainly outdone themselves here this time, managing to beat the Conservatives into 2nd place and face off against Labour in 2nd preferences, although the greens won the most 2nd preference votes, it was not enough to overcome the Labour lead, so although Labour retained it, the Greens still did very well here and it may be an area to keep watch of in the future, especially considering their success in the Bristol Council election as well.
Police and Crime Commissioner Elections – England
28 of the 35 Police and Crime Commissioner elections in England have so far been declared and the Conservatives have done best here, with them making a number of pickups from Labour and Independents. Labour on the other hand so far have made no gains here, and I am suspecting it will remain that way.
Conclusion
So clearly overall it isn’t so good for Labour, more so in England. But it is not all to despair for Labour as they made pickups in the mayoral elections and managed to stand firm in Wales and there are signs in England of areas to work in for the future. But there will certainly be things for Labour to consider, specifically Keir Starmer who has already had a small reshuffle of his Shadow Cabinet. But it depends on what stance is chosen, it is likely Starmer will head further down a more moderate route, and perhaps will make further policy announcements, although the pandemic has made effective opposition pretty difficult.
I think Kier Starmer will stay in post and I do not think there will be a leadership challenge. But if let’s say he loses the next by-election or performs poorly in the next set of local elections, his position could begin getting shaky. It’s a long road ahead for Labour and there will be little room for sweeping under the rug or failing to get the next big challenge right, they will need to start clawing back in England.
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