Featured image: Image by mohamed Hassan from Pixabay
Well, the local elections are over with the biggest winners being Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The biggest losses were made by the Conservatives as was widely expected. Gains were also made by the Greens, SNP, and Plaid Cymru.
The total net gains and net losses were…
Conservatives – net loss of 485 council seats and a net loss of 11 councils, 10 in England and its only council in Wales. The Conservatives won the new North Yorkshire council.
Labour – net gain of 108 council seats and net gain of 5 councils, 3 in England, 1 in Wales and 1 in Scotland. Labour also won the new Cumberland council.
Liberal Democrats – net gain of 224 council seats and net gain of 3 councils in England plus they won two of the new councils – Somerset, and Westmorland & Furness.
The Greens had a net gain of 63 council seats in England (and 8 in Wales) where they will play roles in a number of councils that have No Overall Control. Scottish Greens had a net gain of 11 council seats.
Independents made a net gain of 27 seats in England, a net loss of 15 in Scotland, and a net gain of 8 seats in Wales although there they still had a net loss of two councils.
The SNP made a net gain of 22 council seats in Scotland and a net gain of one council there as well.
And although Plaid Cymru had a net loss of 6 council seats in Wales they still managed to make a net gain of 3 councils there, one being down to boundary changes.
Tower Hamlets Outcome
There was also an interesting result in Tower Hamlets where a small local party called Aspire not only beat out Labour for the position of mayor but they also won majority control of the council.
Some also see this as controversial as the person who won the mayorship – Lutfur Rahman – had previously been banned from office for 5-years for electoral misconduct. But it seems him and Aspire have managed to galvanize support in Tower Hamlets against Labour, particularly among the Bengali community who are some of his strongest grouping of supporters in Tower Hamlets, with Rahman himself having been born in Bangladesh (back then part of Pakistan as East Pakistan) before moving to the UK and becoming a British national at an early age.
Lutfur Rahman set up the Aspire Party himself. Rahman was originally part of the Labour Party from 2002 to 2010 and led Tower Hamlets council from 2008 to 2010.
He left Labour after they removed him from being their candidate for mayor due to alleged Islamist fundamentalist group links and in-party electoral misconduct of signing up fake members to enable him to get the candidacy for mayor. After this he ran as an Independent and won the mayorship anyway.
In 2013 he founded and led the Tower Hamlets First party in 2013 and was re-elected mayor of Tower Hamlets in 2014 but was later removed for electoral misconduct and banned for 5-years from running for office.
During this time, he created the Aspire Party in 2018 which included many former Tower Hamlets First councillors, although the party failed to perform well in local elections while Lutfur was barred from office. It seems his return after the 5-year ban was enough to galvanize support for himself and his Aspire Party in Tower Hamlets.
Labour managed to retain all of its other mayors that were up for election, while the Liberal Democrats retained theirs in Watford. Meanwhile in Croydon the Conservatives managed to win the new mayorship by less than 600 votes over Labour in the 2nd round.
It seems Labour had not been doing too well in the areas local politics, such as the local economy and bankruptcy of the council that required the imposition of a ban on non-essential spending, poor development plans and quality of council places, and proposal of benefit cuts as some of the issues brought up by critics.
The Croydon Council was also lost by Labour to No Overall Control with the Conservatives picking up 4 seats from Labour, but as the Greens and Lib Dems also picked up some seats the Conservatives were unable to get an outright majority. This means it is likely Labour will form a coalition with the Greens/Lib Dems. So, a Conservative mayor and a Labour-led coalition council is the likely outcome. Fun.
Hopefully the new combination will lead to more financial responsibility and an ultimate better outcome for the people of Croydon, rather than stalemate.
Other Council Changes – England
In England as well as winning the new Cumberland council, Labour managed to get Barnet, Wandsworth, and Westminster councils from the Conservatives in London which were their main targets there. Winning these are especially significant as Wandsworth council has been held by the Conservatives since the 1970s, while Westminster has been held by the Cons since its creation in 1964, and Barnet has also not been held by Labour since its creation in 1964.
Labour also managed to gain Southampton from the Conservatives as well in another big win.
Labour also gained Crawley, Kirklees, Rossendale, and Worthing from No Overall Control.
The Party lost control of Hastings to No Overall Control in the face of gains made by the Greens, but this likely means the council will just be ran by a coalition of Labour/Greens. And as already mentioned, Croydon, but again that will also likely be a Lab-led coalition.
The Conservatives lost a number of their councils in England to no overall control, this took place in Castle Point due to Independents gaining six seats from them; Huntingdonshire as the Cons lost seats to Independents, Lib Dems and Greens; Maidstone as Cons lost a seat to Labour and Greens; West Oxfordshire due to losses to Lib Dems and Greens; Wokingham due to losses to Lib Dems; and Worcester due to losses to Labour, Lib Dems, and Greens respectively.
One of the only upsides was the Conservatives gaining Harrow from Labour after winning 8 seats from them there. They also won one of the newly created councils.
The Lib Dems could be argued as one of the biggest winners in England, but then again it is usual for them to do well in locals and by-elections. They are yet to prove themselves again in General Elections.
As well as gaining two of the newly created councils they also won Gosport from the Conservatives, Kingston-upon-Hull from Labour, and Woking from No Overall Control. Due to their seat gains else where they will likely be important kingmakers in various council coalitions, specifically in southern England.
The Liberal Democrats also held all of their existing councils that were up for election, making them the only national party with no council losses.
Other Council Changes – Wales
I should make a note that in my last local elections post I made the mistake of believing Wales use the Single Transferable Vote in their local elections similar to how Scotland and Northern Ireland use it. This is not currently the case, for the elections they used first-past-the-post and plurality-at-large like England. Apologies for that mistake!
I probably got confused as the Welsh Assembly (which held elections last year in May) uses a semi-proportional system called the Additional Member System, which I likely misremembered as the STV system and then assumed that was used by the locals in Wales. This is why it is always important to double check with research! I will do better in the future.
From 2027, councils conducting elections in Wales will have the choice between FPTP/block voting or Single Transferable Vote.
Voters in Wales though can vote from 16 and up similar to Scotland, but different to Northern Ireland and England (and national elections) where the voting age is 18 and up. So younger demographics can potentially change things up a bit – if enough of them vote.
In Wales the biggest winners were the Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru party and the Labour Party. The biggest losers were the Conservatives and Independents.
Labour was able to gain Blaenau Gwent from Independents, and Bridgend from No Overall Control. But they did lose Neath Port Talbot to No Overall Control due to losses to Independents.
Plaid Cymru gained Anglesey, and Carmarthenshire by winning seats from Independents and Ceredigion due to boundary changes from No Overall Control.
The Conservatives lost the only council they held in Wales – Monmouthshire – to No Overall Control due to losses to Labour.
Other Council Changes – Scotland
In Scotland, which does use the Single Transferable Vote in its local elections, the biggest winners were the Scottish National Party and Labour. The biggest losers were again the Conservatives.
The Scottish National Party gained control of Dundee by appearing to win a seat from an Independent, while Labour won control of West Dunbartonshire by winning seats from the SNP, Independent, and Conservatives.
Note that gaining full control of councils in Scotland is more impressive as due to the proportional voting system it is a lot more difficult to achieve.
All other councils remain either Independent-control or No Overall Control, which largely means SNP and Labour coalitions or minority administrations.
Northern Ireland Assembly Election Outcome
The election for the Northern Ireland Assembly were historic as Sinn Fein managed to become the largest party for the first time, which is the first time in NI a nationalist party has become the largest. Although Sinn Fein is now the largest party in Stormont, they did not actually make any net gain of seats and so it is purely down to the DUP losing seats.
When it comes to seat losses the SDLP, DUP, and Green Party of Northern Ireland were the biggest losers. The biggest winner when it came to seat gains were the Alliance party who shot up to being the 3rd largest party, before that 2017 had the SDLP as the 3rd largest.
Originally the Alliance party were 5th largest (SDLP now take that place) after the 2017 election behind the DUP, Sinn Fein, SDLP, and UUP.
Let’s look at a break down:
Nationalists Bloc total – 35
- Sinn Fein – 27 (no change from 2017)
- Social Democratic and Labor Party – 8 (net loss of 4 seats)
Unionists Bloc total – 37
- Democratic Unionist Party – 25 (net loss of 3 seats)
- Ulster Unionist Party – 9 (net loss of 1 seat)
- Traditional Unionist Voice – 1 (no change from 2017)
- Independent Unionist – 2 (up by 1 from 2017)
Other – 18
- Alliance – 17 (net gain of 9 seats)
- People Before Profit – 1 (no change since 2017)
- Green Party (NI) – 0 (lost both of their seats)
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Although Sinn Fein managed to become the largest party for the first time in Northern Ireland’s history the nationalist grouping as a whole is still smaller but by only two seats compared to the unionist grouping.
The Alliance party is not counted as they have declared they are neither unionist nor nationalist, so in that sense they are a bit of a wild card. For one since Alliance are in support of being a member of the EU it could be a number of their members have nationalist leanings for reunification as a way to reenter the EU.
I should also note that while the People Before Profit party label themselves as Other like Alliance, they are in support of their being an Irish reunification referendum. In this sense you could count the nationalist grouping as down by only 1 seat as these parties also aim for such a referendum to take place at some point.
Sinn Fein have made sure to say they have a priority to focus on the cost-of-living crisis, big on many minds now, and that any unity referendum would come on a 5-year framework, it would not be instant. It is to be noted that no opinion polls currently show majority support for Irish reunification. I do not expect to see NI unifying with the rest of Ireland any time soon, and for now remains something sensationalized by the media.
But outside of that. It is perhaps going to be some time before we see the next NI government form as the nationalist and unionist blocs must now come to an agreement on who takes what positions, and the First Minister spot is as such not necessarily guaranteed for Sinn Fein due to the power-sharing dynamic.
The DUP themselves have not yet said they will nominate a deputy First Minister which could mean they are looking for a way to maintain First Minister. Let’s hope that negotiations do not break down.
As it stands the blocs have 6-months to come to an agreement, during that time the assembly will continue to operate in a caretaker capacity with former ministers prior to the election remaining in place for now.
If after 6-months there is no agreement then a fresh election for Stormont could be called or the Northern Ireland Secretary, which is currently Brandon Lewis, could try and draw up an alternative solution to try and break any deadlock.
So, it shall be an interesting period. Personally, I think the DUP should just play fair and nominate a deputy First Minister… but then politics is often not fair and gets messy. I mean if the DUP want to be especially petty, they could choose to point out that the declared nationalist grouping overall is slightly smaller than declared-unionists and as such they (or some other unionist) should still have the position of First Minister.
Also, with the power-sharing dynamic it shall be interesting to see how Alliance fits into it, if at all, considering they are now the 3rd largest party in Stormont. The party itself has stated it wants to see changes to this system, believing there should be voluntary coalitions, and not mandatory power sharing between nationalists/unionists.
This makes sense as the party does not align with either nationalists or unionists and as such the system is rather exclusionary for them.
The above would of course have major implications for Ireland, would require changing of the Good Friday Agreement, and as such lengthy negotiations between the British and Irish Governments and Northern Ireland parties. All of which will bring up delicate topics and decisions which could open up old wounds.
Westminster By-Elections
And finally, let’s talk about two upcoming by-elections that are likely making many Conservatives sweat right now.
Tiverton and Honiton
As many know by this point a certain Tory MP – Neil Parish – resigned around a week ago after having been caught watching some naughty videos in Parliament. I don’t know what he was thinking, there is a time and a place if you like to watch that kind of stuff… but here we are, he goofed up and it cost him his seat.
The former MP had held the seat for the constituency of Tiverton and Honiton which is located in the Southwest English County of Devon. The constituency was first created in 1997 and has elected a Conservative MP in each election, so if they were to lose it in the upcoming by-election it would be quite significant.
The closest another party has come to winning it was actually in its first 1997 election when the Liberal Democrats were around 2,000 votes away from winning the seat. The Lib Dems continued to place second in the constituency all the way until 2010, the subsequent electoral collapse of the party following the Lib-Con coalition government has not seen the Lib Dems place second there again so far.
The 2015 election saw UKIP place second there amid their surge in that election (which would be one of the reasons that led to BREXIT) although the party did not come close to beating the Cons there despite placing second, being around 20,000 votes behind. The Cons have consistently improved their vote total in the constituency since this time going from 29,000 in 2015 to 35,400 in 2017, and then 35,800 in 2019.
2017 and 2019 saw Labour place second in the constituency for the first time but again not as close as the Lib Dems had previously placed before their collapse. With some good recent signs for the Lib Dems in other recent by-elections, notably Chesham and Amersham, and especially North Shropshire, as well as their good performance in the just finished local elections, many believe that they will have the best chance at winning the seat from the Cons instead of Labour, especially given it is in the south of England, typically a place where the Lib Dems have performed well before.
I would agree that the Lib Dems probably have a better chance than Labour at winning this seat, if they get a similar swing to North Shropshire then they will have certainly won it. Of course, it is impossible to say who will ultimately win but I think the Lib Dems have a very good chance of getting it. We shall probably once again see calls for tactical voting.
One thing is, if the Lib Dems keep being the go-to party for by-elections… even in places where Labour have been coming second… then perhaps Labour needs to ask itself why it cannot seem to compete in such by-elections anymore. One thing that is understandable is that Conservative voters are much more likely to switch from Con to Lib Dem and vice versa, so Labour voters tactical voting for the Lib Dems in strong Conservative seats does make more sense under such circumstances.
Wakefield
Another by-election is set to be held in the constituency of Wakefield which is located in West Yorkshire in the north of England. This is after the resignation of Imran Ahmad Khan following him being kicked out of the Conservative party after his conviction of child sexual assault.
The constituency is an old one that has existed in some form since 1832 where it was first won by a candidate a part of the Radicals, a loose parliamentary grouping that would later merge into the Liberal Party.
The constituency would swap between the Liberal and Conservative parties up until 1923 when Labour first won the seat. Then from the 1932 by-election and onwards Labour consistently won the seat until the Conservatives finally won it again in the 2019 election which saw many northern constituencies held by Labour fall to the Conservatives.
As the Conservatives are now below Labour in recent Westminster polls there is a strong likelihood that Labour will be able to win the seat back. I actually expect the seat to be won back by Labour and if they do fail to win it in the upcoming by-election then there should certainly be some questions on that to Keir Starmer.
There is not really much more to say about this one. The Conservatives failing to win this constituency back will not be as big of a symbolic loss as a constituency like Tiverton and Honiton, although it would still nonetheless be a smaller blow. It could also indicate that other northern seats won from Labour by the Cons are under threat. Chip, chip, chip.
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Another by-election loss (possibly two!), especially after the Conservatives poor performance in the recent local elections, will be another big blow to Boris Johnson. Yet it seems no matter how many blows he receives… he manages to cling on. Could losses here be the final straw that breaks his back? The final upset that tips the balance of letters in the 1922 Committee that leads to an in-party no-confidence vote against Boris Johnson?
We shall have to see… but things are looking very precarious right now for old Boris, the date for these by-elections is yet to be officially set.
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