Featured Photo: Image by Phillip Roulain from Pixabay
Hey all. I apologise for their not being a blogpost the last two weeks. I was going to do one per week like usual, but I guess I was just a bit out of sorts. I’ve had kind of a bad couple weeks. Failing my driving theory test (by only 3 points) kind of sent me into a bit of a spiral. I passed the questions easily; it was just the hazard perception test I had issues with as I suspected would be the case.
No matter though, I have re-booked for the 10th November and intend to keep trying until I pass. I am obviously not going to give up. But I did give myself a more relaxed week this week to get myself into a bit of a better place. I hope everyone had a good Halloween weekend – for me it was sweets, chocolate, roasted pumpkin seeds, a chicken korma, and some movies (Hocus Pocus 2, Frankenweenie (the Tim Burton animated version), and Prey (which I really enjoyed)). I will need to re-watch Hocus Pocus 2 again as I was distracted through most the movie trying to solve a tech issue. But from the parts I remember it seems good.
I hope everyone also had a good bonfire night weekend. I myself went to a fireworks display. And of course, for those who do not have a bonfire night I hope you simply had a good weekend.
Now I thought I’d do a post on the Midterms with it just around the corner (it’s literally happening today), my did it come fast. I did attempt earlier this year to do a series looking into all the races of each state, including the candidates, but it was a bad call on my part because at the time I was busy with studying and simply just did not have the time to complete it. I am a bit annoyed with myself because originally, I said I would focus on shorter blogposts when I began studying, but instead I then try and take on a big project. Go figure, it’s the mistake I often make.
I am also a bit annoyed I did not get my British Navy post out the previous week either despite saying I had time to do it – I did have time, it’s just the bad mood period I entered really put a dent into that short-lived enthusiasm. I plan to get right back to it next week. But I think from now on it is best I do not make too many big promises because I am struggling to keep up.
Anyway. Let’s get to the post at hand. Elections! I love watching them. I like the data they produce and simply just seeing who and what wins where. And another thing I love about it – lots of polls to look at and digest. For this post I am putting a focus on the Senate races to watch because I do not have time to look into the House races. There are 100 senators while there are 100s more house representatives – covering more complex geographical areas. With Senate races you can simply look at them statewide.
I do though believe that it is very likely the Republicans will win the House – based on the generic ballot shifting towards the Republicans over the last few weeks and the general fact of the opposition party doing better in elections, that’s the usual pattern. Of course, there is a chance the Democrats could hold on to the House with a reduced majority, but you could say that about any election, of course there is always a chance. But it’s best not to get stuck to chances, especially if they are a lot less likely.
The race for the Senate on the other hand may still be hanging in the balance – although again many of the key battleground races seem to have shifted in favour of the Republicans. With Georgia – the battle between the Democrat Warnock and the Republican Walker for example first had a Republican lead – then the Democrat took the lead for a long period, and now as the Midterms near the race has gone right into coin flip territory.
And we may as well start there:
NOTE: All sources are below at the end of the post.
Georgia
One of the big races to watch will be Georgia due to the state being as close as it is. The 2020 elections saw Joe Biden manage to net the state and both Senators becoming Democrat wins in very close races. These events had given hope that the Democrats may be able to rely on Georgia more than before in the upcoming Midterm elections.
The Democratic candidate Warnock also received a boost when his opponent met a number of controversies such as domestic abuse accusations and that he may have aided an abortion (which would possibly put him at odds with some of his Republican voters), and also some parenting controversies, mostly aired by his son Christian who went as far as to directly criticize his father’s campaign. Walker has also made several public gaffes on the campaign trail – such as one where he claimed to have worked as a sheriff.
The reason the above controversies have been so bad for Walker is due to them clashing with a few his main policies such as anti-abortion and pro-traditional family policies. His policies have also been seen as anti-transgender on rights. Other campaign issues have focused on decreasing crime, attacking wokeness, and being against critical race theory.
Much of the campaign tactics used by Walker have been inspired by Donald Trump, and his popularity from having been a superstar player in American football at his university and following decade-long professional career – helped him quite easily clinch the Republican nomination for Senate in Georgia.
Walker’s campaign has highlighted that Walker confessed on many of his passed dark periods and that his campaign has a large focus on redemption.
Warnock’s major policies involve being supportive of abortion rights and legislation to protect it, wants full Medicaid expansion in Georgia, supportive of gun restrictions/control, and wants protections for federal voting rights.
In the end we may not even find out who wins following the Midterms in Georgia as Senate elections there requires candidates to get an absolute majority of the vote to win – otherwise it could head for a 6th December runoff, possibly being the ultimate decider of who controls the Senate in such a case.
Goergia also has a Governor election happening with a rematch between Kemp and Abrams, which was quite the close election last time, although polls predict Kemp is in for a more comfortable win this time around. One wonders if a Kemp win could possibly also bring out the votes to push Walker over the line, and how many may split their votes between Kemp for Governor and Warnock for Senate.
Arizona
Arizona also has both a Governor and Senate election, although the Governor election in Arizona is closer than that in Georgia and the Republican candidate is perhaps seen as even more controversial. They will both be races to watch. Polls indicate the Republican candidate for Governor has a slight edge while the Democratic candidate for the Senate seems to be maintaining a small lead according to polling.
Many polls are within the margin of error and so there is no guarantee the Democrat will win. I personally believe the Democrat will just about manage it and that this may even aid a democratic win in the Governorship as well, but that’s merely my own opinion and not to be taken at any face value. It’s all up in the air.
We did see in the 2020 election that Arizona was another of the big states to fall from Republican hands – with Joe Biden managing to win the state. So again, this could indicate that the state could be a bit more reliable for Democrats in the Midterms, and previous recent Senate elections have certainly shown this to be the case. Whatever the outcome, it’s a big target and essential for Democrat’s hopes to win the Senate. I’d say if Democrats do lose the Senate election in Arizona, then they’ve likely lost the Senate as a whole.
Blake Masters, the Republican candidate for Senate, has the backing of Donald Trump and has drawn up some controversy, although not as much as Georgia’s Walker. He controversially blamed black people for a large amount of gun violence. He has also been accused of propagating the racist Great Replacement conspiracy theory when it comes to immigration, although he denies it. He has also supported Trump’s baseless claims of the 2020 election having been stolen.
He has a background in venture capital and is close with Peter Thiel, a German-American multi-billionaire entrepreneur, venture capitalist, and political activist, who has also endorsed him and funded his campaign. His main policies are anti-abortion, anti-immigration, and pro-guns.
Mark Kelly is the Senate Democratic candidate in Arizona. Kelly is the incumbent there having won the seat in a special election in the 2020 election. The win was a major one for Democrats as up until that point the seat had been Republican held consistently since 1962. Kelly is pro-choice on abortion and supports codifying Roe Vs. Wade into law. Although he supports climate action he does not agree with the Green New Deal and advocated for oil drilling to be expanded due to rising gas prices.
Kelly is also an advocate for gun control, especially after the attempted assassination of his wife in the 2011 Tucson shooting where 6 others were killed including John Roll who was a federal judge. He also wants to expand the Affordable Care Act with a public health insurance option.
In the run-up to the Midterm elections the polling gap has been narrowing and as of now Kelly has on average an almost 2-point lead according to FiveThirtyEight, which is not exactly comfortable. The Governor race in parallel has the Republican candidate, who is also Trump-backed, with a 2.5-point lead on average. Again, it will be interesting to see that if the Republicans do win the Governorship here whether it leads to bringing out enough votes for Masters in the Senate race – because if not then that suggests vote splitting.
Or, as I said previously and what I believe could happen is that a Kelly win could perhaps bring out enough votes for the Governorship to go Democrat instead. We’ll have to wait and see on the night.
Nevada
Another one to watch is Nevada. In the last few election cycles the Democrats have been able to rely on Nevada in the presidential, house and senate races in what was once a more Republican-leaning state. But this may be about to change as polls indicate that the current senate race appears to be slightly more favourable to the Republican candidate this time around, with polling averages currently giving him (Laxalt) a 1.2-point lead over the Democratic incumbent (Cortez Masto) according to FiveThirtyEight.
Although these polling averages have shrunk in favour of the Democrat as the big day draws near, it is enough of a potential damper on the Democrats originally more hopeful chances of taking the Senate in 2022. There is also a Governor race here as well where polling also gives slight favour on average – 1.7-point lead – to the Republican.
Laxalt was formerly Attorney-General for Nevada from 2015 until 2019. Members of his family have also held prominent positions in US politics – his father was US senator in New Mexico and his grandfather was the Governor of Nevada and was a US Senator for Nevada. This has likely helped give him recognition in the race. It is also to be noted he attempted to run for Governor himself in Nevada in 2018 but lost to the current Democratic incumbent Sisolak.
His time as Attorney-General saw him fighting in support for laws restricting abortions, against federal environmental protection regulations, and opposed some gun control regulations. Laxalt was co-chair of Trump’s unsuccessful reelection campaign in Nevada, and he also perpetuated false claims of fraud in the Nevada result and even sought to have the results overturned. As such many will see him as another controversial Republican candidate in the Midterms.
The Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto has held her Senate position since 2017 and just like Laxalt was also formerly Attorney-General for Nevada between 2007-2015. She is the first woman elected to represent Nevada in the US Senate and the first Latina to be elected to the upper chamber.
During her time as Attorney-General her office launched an investigation into then Republican Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki over felony charges related to allegations of mishandling the Nevada College Savings Trust Fund when he was State Treasurer. During this investigation Cortez Masto was caught up in a scandal when the Las Vegas Review-Journal discovered her husband had planned to host a fundraising party for the then Democratic candidate for Lieutenant Governor only days before her office was scheduled to prosecute Krolicki, although Cortez Masto claimed to be unaware. Charges against Krolicki were ultimately dismissed and was seen as a political setback for Cortez Masto.
Something else controversial during her time as Attorney-General also saw her office defending Nevada in Sevcik v. Sandoval, which challenged Nevada’s denial of same-sex marriage, prohibited by the state’s constitution and statutory law. Cortez Masto and the state would later abandon this defense following a Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruling. Cortez Masto does now support same-sex marriage.
Cortez Masto is supportive of green environmental policies such as limiting greenhouse gas emissions from powerplants, supporting growth of ‘green jobs’, increasing Nevada’s reliance on solar power and other clean energy sources, and opposing the use of Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste repository.
Cortez Masto has also voiced support for a reform of the Senate fillibuster. She is also supportive of gun control policies; wants to improve upon the Affordable Care Act; has supported policies against harsh tactics used by ICE when it comes to immigration; and she is pro-choice.
So, you have quite a bit to digest here. But, quite tough to say who will win. I feel like Cortez Masto may just about be able to hold on, but that’s just what I think and should not be taken for anything.
North Carolina
The state of North Carolina, once also more favourable to Republicans, has slowly seemingly been moving towards the Democrats over the last few election cycles, with Donald Trump only very narrowly managing to win it in the 2020 election, as well as a close Senate race. This of course gave many Democrats hope they may be able to pick up the Senate seat there in the 2022 Midterms.
But, unfortunately for the Democrats once again, polls seem to indicate that it will likely be retained by the Republicans, with it being one of the least close races when looking into the polling averages. Initially the Republican did hold an even larger average lead, and then for a time the Democratic candidate took the lead before that lead was then retaken by the Republican as the Midterms drew closer. As of now the Republican candidate, Ted Budd who is running to replace the incumbent Republican Richard Burr who decided not to run again, has a 3.8-point average lead according to FiveThirtyEight, which is more comfortable than other races on this list.
The lead isn’t foolproof, the Democrat could still win with the average being that close, but probably not. If the Democrats did manage to pick up this seat, then we could probably assume they will pick-up the Senate as a whole, it would certainly be close to over-performing. Pretty much every reliable pollster has given the Republican the edge since around October, a few within the margin of error, others not.
Ted Budd, the Republican candidate, currently holds the 13th Congressional District US House seat – since 2017. Budd personally visited Mar-a-Lago before officially announcing his candidacy with Donald Trump’s endorsement, as well as the endorsement of Lara Trump who it was said may have run for the seat instead but eventually declined.
Budd’s political positions have involved supporting pro-life policies; pro-second amendment; being in favour of repealing the affordable care act; and he voted against the For the People Act that intended to strengthen voting rights. He also signed the amicus brief which challenged results of the 2020 election and voted against certifying Pennsylvania electoral college votes for Biden, saying officials there acted illegally and violated both the state and US Constitutions, their remains no proof of the claims.
It is to be noted the current incumbent who is stepping aside, Richard Burr, was one of only seven Republican senators to vote to convict Trump for incitement of insurrection following the January 6th attack during his second impeachment hearing.
Other issues of Budd’s campaign include but are not limited to support for lower taxes, less regulatory burdens, and reduced federal involvement when it comes to the economy. He supports greater involvement of parents in their children’s education and wants schools to have a greater focus on teaching civics, US history, and reinforce values that make America great. When it comes to healthcare he wants more choices, more competition, and more affordable health insurance plans, and that there is less decision-making in the hands of Washington. He also supports building the Mexican border wall and defunding ‘sanctuary cities’.
The Democratic challenger, Cheri Beasley, formerly served as the chief justice on the North Carolina Supreme Court. Her campaign says that it has refused PAC-monetary support and is only accepting grassroots support. The main issues of her campaign include fixing the immigration system, improving housing affordability, reforming the criminal justice system, protection of voting rights and strengthening of democracy, climate crisis and environment, women’s rights, and expanding the Affordable Care Act.
Ohio
Ohio, like Florida, has seemingly become more friendly to Republicans over the last few election cycles. Both states were quite easily won by Trump in 2020. But Democrats have still held out hope to make a comeback in such states, and it is to be noted that the Democrats managed to hold a Senate seat in Ohio in 2018. When it comes to Ohio the Democrat challenger is Tim Ryan, an individual fairly popular among Democrats in the state and who has formerly run for the US presidency. He has been a US House representative in Ohio since 2003.
Originally there were some hopes Tim Ryan could pull off a win in the state with him having a consistent but small lead, but April through June saw the Republican challenger, J. D. Vance, take the lead, and then Tim Ryan regained the polling averages again for quite a long period from July until October. But since October the Republican has remained consistently in the lead and has seemingly greatly expanded that lead up to a 4.7-point polling average according to FiveThirtyEight.
In that light it does seem unlikely that the Democratic candidate will win, and if they were to win then it may well again indicate the Democrats winning the Senate as a whole. Most polls have J. D. Vance leading, including outside of the margin of error.
J. D. Vance was little known up until 2016 when he released his best-selling book – Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis. Vance is also a venture capitalist who has received monetary support from Peter Thiel as well as Robert Mercer, he has also been endorsed by Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump, he also visited Mar-a-Lago before announcing his Senate bid. He has been influenced by Blake Masters, the Republican Senate candidate in Arizona. He has also criticized the left for waging ‘cultural wars’ against the entire country and criticized childless politicians who do not have a personal indirect stake in improving the country.
J. D. Vance opposes abortion after the 15-week mark and described the overturing of Roe v. Wade as an amazing victory. On exceptions for abortion when it comes to rape and incest, he has said that two wrongs do not make a right. Vance opposed the Respect for Marriage Act saying he believes marriage is between a man and a woman and that he does not think the gay marriage issue is alive right now.
On immigration Vance has said to win election in 2022 the Democrats need to bring in new voters to replace those already there – seeming to believe in the Great Replacement conspiracy theory. He also remains supportive of Trump’s Mexican border wall and would like to see it finished.
Vance has strong views against childless people and even has said that couples with children should have a bigger say in democracy than those without children. He has criticized the sexual revolution and ease of partner change and seems to have suggested that violent marriages should continue in some cases according to a Vice article, although his campaign denied this and called it misleading. Vance has said that domestic abuse has sky-rocketed due to modern-society’s war on families, despite data showing domestic abuse has actually decreased.
Originally Vance was vehemently anti-Trump, calling his policy proposals immoral and absurd. But since 2018 he has begun taking more of a supportive approach on Trump, including reversing and removing previous anti-Trump content posted by him. Vance also has perpetuated Trump’s claims of election fraud, saying Trump lost due to widespread voter fraud.
Tim Ryan has focused advocating for economic protectionism, unionization, and the fight against reducing income inequality. He has fought to increase the minimum wage, expand access to affordable childcare, and protecting dignified retirement. Ryan was strongly against NAFTA due to its effects on Ohio and is critical of outsourcing. He supports a bill to improve infrastructure and also create clean energy infrastructure in Ohio; is fighting for affordable healthcare; expansion of Medicare; and against the opioid epidemic. He supports two-years of tuition-free community college and universal pre-K. He also supports gun safety reform, ending racial disparities, modernising the immigration system, strengthening democracy, and protecting reproductive rights.
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Pennsylvania
The state that Trump unexpectedly won in 2016 and then lost in 2020. Democrats were hopeful for an easier win here, especially against the Republican candidate Mehmet Oz who is seen as a rather weak and controversial candidate and who originally polled badly. John Fetterman, the Democratic candidate, had maintained a strong lead up until October. But issues that relate to Fetterman’s health (he had a stroke in May 2022 due to a clot caused by atrial fibrillation) have seemingly been working against him, especially following a recent debate. All of this is despite doctors saying that Fetterman has no cognitive deficits, can speak intelligently, and has significantly improved on communication.
The race, like the one in Georgia, now hangs in the balance. The FiveThirtyEight polling average has Fetterman up by only 0.4-points, a stunning decline from a height of as much as 10-points. The Governor race in parallel still has its democratic candidate maintaining a 10-point average lead, suggesting a high amount of vote splitting. But again, a comfortable win for the Democrats in the Governor race could still be enough to also bring out enough votes to push Fetterman over the line.
Mehmet Oz is the first Muslim to be nominated by either of the major US parties for the US Senate and his professions/titles include television presenter, author, professor emeritus, and formerly a cardiothoracic surgeon. In relation to his medical background there have been a number of controversies and criticism related to his promotion of pseudoscience such as alternative medicine – including for coronavirus, faith healing, and a number of paranormal beliefs, and that scammers have exploited some of the things he has promoted.
Oz served under Trump from 2018 on the President’s Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition until he was removed by President Biden, he was initially told to resign by the Biden administration, but he refused. He has been endorsed by Donald Trump in the Senate election. It is also said that Oz’s television appearance influenced Trump’s decision-making during the pandemic and that he even became an informal advisor during the pandemic.
Some of his main views include opposition of abortion, being against the Affordable Care Act, and not being in favour of legalizing recreational cannabis, but supports its medicinal usage, and he has criticized marijuana being labelled a Schedule I drug and praised Biden for pardoning those convicted of simple marijuana possession. He believes students and parents should be able to choose alternatives to public schooling, wants to reduce the power of teachers’ unions and accused them of being too close with Democrats, he supports fracking, wants closer relations with Israel, supports the right to bear arms, and supports federal protection of same-sex marriage.
Oz has had mixed views on climate change, he has previously highlighted the threats of climate change but has also downplayed the risk of carbon dioxide towards greenhouse effect and climate change. He also originally wanted more regulations on fracking and wanted it to be halted until more research had been done.
He has also flip-flopped on gun control as well. Although he supports the right to bear arms he has been supportive of red-flag style laws – although against a national red flag law registry. He has also previously supported waiting periods before obtaining guns and even once co-wrote a column in 2019 that advocated for an assault rifle ban.
And although he has said he is against the Affordable Care Act he has supported similar universal healthcare systems and was even featured in an Obamacare advertisement, promoting the Affordable Care Act.
John Fetterman, the Democratic candidate for Senate, has been Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania since 2019 and as such is prominent in the state’s politics. Before that he was mayor of Braddock where he was known for his art and youth programs. Fetterman previously attempted to run for US Senate in Pennsylvania in 2016 but did not get nominated. As Lieutenant Governor Fetterman became widely known for his push to legalise cannabis in the state and his defense against Donald Trump’s claims of election fraud in the state following the 2020 election.
Fetterman’s main policy focuses on his Senate campaign include the right of universal healthcare, reform of the criminal justice system, raising minimum wage to $15 an hour, and the legalisation of marijuana.
Fetterman has received criticism over a 2013 incident after he heard what he thought were gunshots, he followed an unarmed jogger and detained them with a shotgun. The jogger, Chris Miyares, a black American, said that the supposed gunshots were actually kids shooting bottle rockets, although Fetterman said there were no signs of debris. Miyares said Fetterman aimed the gun at his chest, loaded it, and then pointed it at his face – although Fetterman denies this account, saying he did not point the gun directly at him but only in a way that showed he was armed, and that there were no rounds chambered and the safety was not off.
The incident did not result in any charges or formal complaints. Fetterman has been accused of racism over the incident but denies this. Miyares said that Fetterman had lied about everything related to the incident but also went on to say that he had done far good than just one bad act and should not be defined by it – and even said he wants Fetterman to win the Senate race.
As for what I personally think? I feel like Fetterman will just about manage to pull off a win in Pennsylvania, but it is uncomfortably close. The stroke he had was extremely unlucky and if not for that – as well as the recent debate where he seemed to struggle in ordering his speech – he would probably have won a lot more comfortably.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin, another state that Trump failed to win in 2020, has a Republican incumbent fighting to retain their Senate seat. Polls indicate that as of now the Republican incumbent, Ron Johnson, holds the advantage by around 3.4-points. The state had been consistently picked up by the Democrats in each presidential election since 1984 before Trump won it for the Republicans again in 2016.
Republican Ron Johnson has held his Senate seat since 2011, while the Democrats have held the other Senate seat since 2013. Johnson is running again in 2022 despite originally saying in 2016 that he would retire after two terms. The Democrats would naturally hope to pick up the other Senate seat considering the state’s favourable history and Trump’s loss there in 2020. But similar to states like North Carolina it is one of the less close states and if Democrats did manage to pick the seat up it would likely be another sign that they’d also win the Senate as a whole. Personally, I do not see it happening this time around. Most reliable polls give Johnson the win.
Ron Johnson is another Trump supporting Republican who has perpetuated false claims of election fraud following the 2020 election and supported/voted for his policies during the Trump administration. Johnson does not believe in the scientific consensus behind climate change and was critical of coronavirus lockdowns and also helped the spread of coronavirus misinformation/theories, including around vaccinations and the invitation of witnesses to the Senate Homeland Security Committee who promoted fringe theories about the virus.
Johnson has said he supports a federal minimum wage increase ‘to some extent’ in 2021 but also said in 2022 that it’s better for the marketplace to decide wages rather than have government mandate it. As well as rejecting the scientific consensus over climate change Ron Johnson has also perpetuated a number of falsehoods in attempts to explain climate change as something not caused by human activity. He has been supportive of tax cuts, including Trump’s tax cuts, and critical of Congress raising the debt ceiling, and has blamed federal Social Security and Medicare programmes for contributing to the debt further, and wanted them to be reformed. He has also been against continued COVID stimulus cheques after supporting the CARES Act in 2020.
Johnson has been staunchly opposed to any form of gun control legislation and regulation. Johnson opposes the Affordable Care Act and was one of those who voted to repeal it. He is in favour of a renewed attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act if Republicans win congress in the 2022 midterms. Johnson is anti-abortion and has supported bills that aim to ban abortions even in cases of rape and incest, although has also supported bills that allow such exceptions.
On immigration Johnson supported ending DACA and has played credence to the racist Great Replacement conspiracy theory.
Mandela Barnes is the Democratic candidate for Senate in Wisconsin. He is currently Wisconsin’s Lieutenant Governor which he has held since 2019, being the first African-American to hold the position. He also served as a representative in the Wisconsin State Assembly. If he were to win the Senate seat he would also become the first African-American senator for Wisconsin.
Barnes is pro-choice and wants to codify Roe v. Wade into law, even if it means eliminating the Senate filibuster to achieve that goal. Barnes has a prominent focus on gun control to prevent gun violence such as via red flag laws, universal background checks, banning private individuals from making their own guns, and banning assault weapons and high-capacity magazines. He also wants to remove protections from liability from gun manufacturers and dealers when they sell guns to someone who uses it to commit crime.
He is also a supporter of Medicare for All and its expansion. He also supports a Green New Deal, raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, wants the cash bail to be eliminated to prevent holding of defendants before a trial unless there is clear evidence of them being a flight risk or a danger. Barnes supports legalising marijuana.
New Hampshire
Another of the lesser close races, New Hampshire is usually pretty reliable for the Democrats – Trump came somewhat close to winning the state in 2016 but did not manage to. The Governor race will easily be won by the Republican but this is par the course currently for a number of New England states popular with Democrats but that have popular Republican Governor incumbents. So, in that case vote splitting is very much expected and probably won’t serve to help the Republican Senate candidate all that much if the usual pattern holds.
The current Democratic Senate incumbent in the state – Maggie Hassan – has held the seat since 2017 (which she narrowly won during the 2016 election) and according to FiveThirtyEight holds an average polling lead of 2.2 points – this is down from a height of 7.8 points as the Midterms have drawn closer – with most of that narrowing only taking place over the last few weeks. Most reliable polls give Hassan the win and I reckon that will likely be the case. If the Democrat does lose here, then that probably indicates a very bad night for the Democrats overall.
Before becoming senator, Hassan was the Governor of New Hampshire from 2013-2017. She also served in the state senate and became a majority leader there. She has also been vice-chair of the Democratic Governors Association and a superdelegate of the Democratic National Convention, giving her some say and influence over nominating the Democratic presidential contender.
When it comes to gun control, she is supportive of restrictions on selling guns to those who are mentally ill. She was in favour of keeping a Trump era immigration policy limiting migrants and asylum seekers crossing the southern border. Hassan is supportive of medicinal marijuana but against the legalisation of recreational marijuana. She is also one of the few Democratic senators who voted against raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour. As can be seen she is a lot more of a moderate Democrat compared to other more progressive candidates on this list.
She has had a focus on improving infrastructure in New Hampshire, working to bring more manufacturing to the US, and work towards lowering prices of prescription drugs and the cost of healthcare. She is supportive of incentives for making homes more energy efficient, and also has a focus on building a clean energy economy. She is openly supportive of law enforcement and increasing their funding.
The Republican candidate is Donald C. Bolduc. He has previously attempted to run for US Senate in New Hampshire in 2020 but did not make it through the primaries. He like many on the list is seen as a controversial candidate with some going as far to call him far-right. He is a supporter of Donald Trump and has attempted to obtain an endorsement from him – which although Trump acknowledged him, did not give him a direct endorsement.
He, like others, have also stated the election in 2020 was rigged in favour of Biden and that President Biden was not legitimately elected, although he eventually said he believed Biden did win but still nonetheless believes the 2020 election was marred by fraud, despite having no solid evidence. He has also promoted misinformation on coronavirus, masks and vaccines.
He has called for the repeal of the 17th amendment which would end US senators being elected in direct popular elections. He was also critical of allowing Government involvement of negotiating drug prescription prices via the Inflation Reduction Act. He is strongly against abortion and celebrated the repeal of Roe v. Wade.
On immigration he wants to see more border agents put in place to try and prevent illegal immigration. He strongly supports the oil and gas industry and is in favour of leasing and exploring federal lands for oil and gas, and wants to finish pipelines that have halted construction, all to increase domestic energy production. He is pro-guns and wants parents to have a larger say in their child’s education.
Thank you for reading. I hope this gives you an indication of some of the races to watch later on today and also into tomorrow and onwards. Many believe that these current Midterms are very important when it comes to defending democracy and preventing candidates with extreme views from getting into office. It shall be interesting to see what happens.
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