I did a post last week talking overall about the polls in general but this time I have decided to take a closer look at some of the state’s that are looking like they are going to be quite interesting – although it is still early yet so I will do another similar post to this closer to the time. But I am going to be looking at states that could potentially cause an upset or that are tossups.
As it stands things remain to look good for Joe Biden and realistically Trump is going to want to start seeing more polls that look competitive rather than polls that seem to point to a big Joe Biden win. There is still plenty of time for things to change and there are many things that are yet to happen and can still happen, it remains all to play for. But let’s take a closer look at some of the interesting states…
Arizona
Could it be the year that Arizona flips to the Democrats? Arizona has a strong history of voting for the Republican’s and it hasn’t flipped to the Democrats since 1996. But in 2016 Trump did not manage to get over 50% of the vote in the state as other Republican candidates have managed to do in recent elections and it is looking more and more like the state will flip to the Democrats at some point in the near future. Could 2020 be the year?
Most polls are suggesting that the race is going to be a tossup with many polls putting it within 5-points, some even having it as close as 1-point. It’s certainly still a likely R state, but it certainly isn’t a safe bet for Trump. For now, the advantage appears to be with Biden if polls can be relied on and it will remain to be seen if Biden can maintain this as the election nears.
Arkansas – Honourable Mention
Earlier this month a very interesting poll dropped for the state of Arkansas conducted by Hendrix College from June 9th-10th of this year putting the race within 2-points. In a deeply red state such as Arkansas this likely comes to quite a shock to many familiar with state voting history and patterns. There is no way a state such as Arkansas should be a tossup at any time – especially during an election year.
Now that’s not to say it cannot happen, as the state did flip blue in 1992 and held blue in the following 1996 election before going back to the Republicans, but recent elections show Republican candidates winning by vast majorities here, Trump himself won the state by 27-points in the last election.
Although I highly doubt it will actually come to fruition, it is still interesting nonetheless. Besides it is only a single poll, if we can get more polls on the matter that correlate with this one, it will likely be sending some shivers through the Trump campaign, if they are potentially in trouble in this typically deep red state… then you could only imagine how much worse it could be in the typical tossups.
Florida
Of course, there is always the nail-biter that is Florida to look out for each election cycle as it is a complete tossup as usual. Trump managed to just about scrape it last time as many have scraped it over the line in recent elections.
As always, it’s going to be another challenge for Trump to hold on to it and as polls stand it is looking like Biden is at the advantage, not that it means too much and isn’t safe by any means. Obviously, the state can easily go either way. In the Midterms we saw how the Republican’s managed to flip a Senate seat and hold the Governorship – which likely have the Democrats a bit nervous on the state’s stance for 2020. The latest polls have Biden up from 7 to 10 points.
Georgia
Talking about could it be Arizona’s year… could it also be Georgia’s year? The state hasn’t gone to the Democrats since the 1992 election with Republican’s getting at least 50% of the vote in recent elections, including Trump who although reached at least 50% of the vote was still down compared to previous Republican wins seemingly due to the 3rd party vote.
Recent polls seem to indicate that Georgia could be a toss-up with polls bouncing back and forth between unsafe Biden and Trump leads. Since Republican’s can’t really afford to lose much in presidential elections it will be something nagging away at them.
Also, on the Senate-seat election it is looking like Ossof could make a comeback, the hopeful candidate who failed to win the hotly contested 6th Congressional District seat in a 2017 Special Election is polling quite well in the Senate election. And despite the Republican Special Election win, the Democrats did end up taking the seat anyway in the 2018 Midterm elections. Such tidings will continue to keep Republican strategists up at night, although the Republican’s did manage to hold on to the Governorship.
Iowa
Iowa can often be a tossup state although Trump won it quite easily in the 2016 election. But right now, polls are once again pointing towards an unsure race, with polls bouncing between Biden and Trump in the state similar to how they are in Georgia.
Democrats have been able to count on the state in recent elections more than the Republican’s, with the Rs only winning it in 2004 and 2016 elections, before 2004 they had not won it since 1984. Will Trump be able to pull off another smooth win in Iowa? For now, polls don’t seem to think so and it is likely to be a lot closer this time.
Michigan
Trump’s shock win in Michigan was one of the great hallmarks of the wild 2016 election, but could it have been a onetime affair due to Hillary’s unpopularity? For now, it appears Biden is polling quite well in the state and at a somewhat safe-ish margin, although I would not be completely comfortable.
Most polls are putting Biden’s lead above 10-points with only a select few being below that. We’ll have to see if Trump is able to pull off another miracle unless polls begin to change towards him here. Obama pulled off two sizeable wins in Michigan in 2008 and 2012 and so it leaves one to wonder if such popularity in-relation can play into Biden’s hands here.
Up until Trump’s 2016 win the Republican’s had not won the state since 1988.
Minnesota
Now it’s time for one that could be worrying Democrats and that is Minnesota. Back in the 2016 election it almost seemed like it’d be another Trump upset as he came within about 1-point of winning it, most likely due to the sheer amount of 3rd party voters once again owing to candidate unpopularity.
One would think though this isn’t the case with Biden as we have been seeing in the polls at least, but one such poll in Minnesota has put the race within 5-points, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling in late May. Such a poll may give a bit of worry to the Democrats but again just like how it is in Arkansas – it’s only one poll – and more polls are required to see if there is any correlation.
But considering how close Trump came to winning it in 2016, it is certainly one that will be on Democrat and Republican strategist’s minds. If Trump does manage to pull it off it will be the first time the Republican’s won it since the 1972 election.
Personally, though as of now I feel like it is going to be harder for Trump to get as close this election.
Nevada
Although the state has been trending more towards the Democrats over the last few election cycles, there is still a good chance the Republicans can nab it back as the state is often within the margin of error. Trump did come quite close here in 2016, once again we can point towards 3rd party support for that. Such cannot really be counted on this coming election and so it is more likely to go to Biden than Trump, but it isn’t completely out of the question by any means.
More recent polling here is needed.
New Hampshire
Trump came within a fraction of winning this in 2016 and so it is another that isn’t out of the question for Trump to try and get it this time – again though as the trend was in 2016 the close outcome can be pointed towards the 3rd party support – which can’t be counted on in 2020, so I’d say it is more likely Trump won’t get as close this time, but there’s no being completely certain on that. A recent poll is favouring Biden though (in contrast to polls in February favouring Trump), although more polls would be good.
North Carolina
NC could originally be relied on by the Republican’s but after Obama flipped it in 2008 (the first time Democrats had won it since 1976) the game changed and has since been seen as a tossup state. For now, polls are certainly indicating such a tossup with a small advantage seemingly to Biden, could Biden flip it just like Obama did in 2008? Could the relation in popularity allow it? It remains to be seen and is certainly far too close to make any definitive conclusion, but it will continue to bother Republican strategists.
Ohio
Ohio is another of the classic tossup state’s and it is considered one of those that the Republican’s need to win to have a chance, it also appears to be a good predictor of whether the Republican candidate will win the election or not. Polls are bouncing between Biden and Trump and so it’s set to be a close one. In 2016 Trump managed to win the state by a fair margin over Hillary. I do not feel like it will be as easy against Biden for Trump.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is still in the game and was another of Trump’s big upsets in 2016, with the Republican’s not having won it since 1988. Surprisingly polls are seemingly keeping it a quite close tossup, more so than polls are showing for Michigan and Wisconsin. This means the Democrats are going to need to focus more specially on it as time draws near to the election as chipping away these states from Trump will make it a lot harder for him to win. Polls are for now giving unsafe leads to both Trump and Biden.
Texas
Texas in its polling is being quite the surprise right now, normally it is a state the Republicans have been able to solidly count on and is one of their main treasure troves of electoral votes, losing it would be an absolute disaster for the Republican’s and would make winning the election next to impossible for them. If Texas goes it’s basically game over for the Republican’s.
So, with the polls showing a dead heat or leads of only 1-3 points for Trump is likely very much scaring the Republican’s.
It is expected that at some point the state will flip to the Democrats but I doubt that it was expected to be a scare so soon, I myself would not think it would flip to the Democrats until at least a couple more election cycles.
This will certainly be one to keep an eye on. If the Democrats do manage to pull it off it will be the first time since 1976 and they will have also won the election.
Wisconsin
Finally, we move to the last of the trio of upsets that Trump achieved in 2016, this one being Wisconsin. Trump’s win here in 2016 was the first time Republican’s won it since 1984 and so it is another the Democrats will be working on. For now, it’s looking like it is trending Biden in a similar fashion that Michigan is (by about 10-points or so) and it will remain to be seen if this continues on.
All in all, the election is all to play for still if you think about it. There is many things that can go wrong for either side in the election, the Democrats need to make sure they win back the states that Trump took in his shock trio as well as picking up a few of the typical tossups, while the Republicans are needing to fight tooth and nail to hold on to as many states as possible to be able to win.
I will come back probably around September-October time to have another round-up of the polls to see if anything has changed as there is plenty of time still for the polls to move around. No side is yet safe.
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