Well if you thought the debacle in New Hampshire for the Democrats was a bit of a shambles, just wait until you hear what has happened in Nevada for the Republican caucus and primary… yes you heard that right they are holding both in an opposing fashion and neither Trump nor Haley are on the same ballot as each other so both will likely be trying to claim victory… oh boy. Well, let’s get into exactly what has led to this mess. And hopefully this will be the final mishap in this crazy but also not so crazy primary season.
By the time this post goes up the Nevada Republican primary will have already been held on Tuesday but only Haley and not Trump will be on that ballot. The Nevada Republican caucus on the other hand is taking place on Thursday where Trump will be on the ballot but Haley won’t be… so, what happened to cause this confusion?
A caucus and primary are not exactly the same thing. A primary is more of a traditional vote where voters go to a poll (or can usually vote by mail instead) and place their vote in-secret in a booth to whoever they choose to vote for. Caucuses on the other hand are a more involved process where attendance to vote is required and is more of a longer process as it usually involves some events and debates before the actual voting begins, and the voting in a caucus is often more in the open, sometimes done in a hall via a show of hands.
Caucuses are not as common as they once were and most states hold primaries now instead as they are often more efficient and accessible. Nevada is one of the states that up until recently had held caucuses for decades, but delays in the voting in the caucuses in 2020 led to the passing of legislation in the state by state Democrats to replace caucuses with primaries similar to many other states.
But the state Republican party was not happy about this change and unsuccessfully challenged it in court to try and get the legislation reversed. Having failed that the state Republican party has simply decided to hold its own caucuses while the state government holds the primary.
Trump has chosen to take part in the caucus while Haley has chosen to take part in the primary. Since the Republican party controls the awarded delegates this means that those taking part in the caucus will be the only ones able to win the delegates while those in the primary will not be able to win any delegates no matter how well they do. Now that to me is pretty crazy since the state Republican party is basically ignoring the law, but that’s the oddity of it.
You’d think this would be good news for Trump as he should just be able to sweep up the delegates basically unnopposed. But in actuality the Trump campaign is still quite afraid of Haley still getting more votes in the primary than Trump in the caucus, which can still be damaging in a symbolic way. This is a possibility as again primaries will often get higher turnouts than caucuses simply due to them again being more simple and accessible. The Trump campaign as such is trying to convince people to vote ‘none of the above’ in the primary while voting for him at the caucus in the hopes of preventing an outcome where Haley gets more votes than him.
So, how did this strategy go on Tuesday? It seems it has worked out for Trump so far. Haley has actually lost to the None of the Above option which will be quite a humiliation for her campaign and will once again raise questions on how much longer she should go on for. Turnout to the primary is also reportedly quite low as well.
Now all Trump needs to do is get a reasonable win in the caucus on Thursday which should not be too difficult as he is pretty much the only popular candidate on that ballot, and also hope for better turnout to the caucus than the primary and that Trump ultimately gets a higher vote count than Haley did in the primary.
So, will Haley drop out after this? It is possible, but I reckon she will at least hold on until the South Carolina primary.
It is all pretty dramatic as things seem to be lately in US politics, or even that is actually pretty normal for US politics it would seem. Due to the mess up most have already turned and focused their attention on to the next Republican primary in South Carolina where there is no such shambolic drama taking place, and in which is seen by many as Haley’s last chance to pull out some surprise win against Trump as she is somewhat popular there due to having formerly served as the state’s Governor, although polls indicate a likely Trump win. If Haley cannot muster up a good result here then I really do not see where she can go from there. In my eyes it is already over for her anyway.
Oh, and also on Thursday there will be the Republican US Virgin Islands caucus as well, many people forget that the US territories have these elections too, and they can sometimes produce interesting results, but ultimately have little influence on the primaries and caucuses held in the US states. But they are still worth a few delegates and every one counts to the nomination!
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