And just like that there is just Trump and Haley as both DeSantis and Ramaswamy come tumbling down after only one vote. This was despite DeSantis just barely managing to clinch second place in the Iowa Caucus above Haley but it was clear from that point (and realistic for a while now) that DeSantis did not really stand much of a chance – Haley at least has New Hampshire and South Carolina coming up where she is polling quite well (although again, not really well enough) – DeSantis had nothing to look forward to after Iowa despite his second placing he was still far behind Trump.
And so as both DeSantis and Ramaswamy fall in line and endorse Trump (big shock there, did not see that coming) Haley is going to attempt to fight on – arguably though now her position is worse as the DeSantis and Ramaswamy voters are more likely to go to Trump in the future votes, making it even less likely for Haley to pull off some kind of upset.
So, it is pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point that Trump will be the 2024 Republican nominee, just as is the case for Joe Biden with the Democrats. An interesting note on the Democratic New Hampshire primary given we are on the topic – Biden is not actually going to be on the ballot in that state for the party’s primary vote, not that it will make much of a difference in the grand scheme of things.
The reason for this is due to a fued between the national and state Democratic parties over the DNC’s decision to have South Carolina be the first state to hold its Democrat Primary this year, traditionally New Hampshire holds the first Democratic party primary for each election year. As such the New Hampshire state Democratic party has decided to ignore the decision of the DNC and hold its primary before South Carolina anyway.
The decision by the DNC was a Biden-backed one with the aim of having a more racially-diverse state kick-off the voting process, which could help to shape the ultimate outcome. The New Hampshire Democrats on the other hand have argued that the state’s laws means New Hampshire must be the first to hold a Democratic primary each cycle. Biden as such did not file to be on the ballot in the New Hampshire Democratic primary, choosing to abide with the DNC’s decision.
Seems like pretty petty stuff on the part of New Hampshire Democrats – but there you have it, we live in unusual times it would seem. But as said, it really is just a little blip in an otherwise Biden dominated field, he will certainly still easily take the nomination. Note that voters in New Hampshire will still be able to cast write-in votes for Biden and there is some momentum in an attempt to have that become some kind of protest vote in response to the New Hampshire Democrats. Biden will still ultimately be on the ballot in the state for the presidential election in November.
Looking at the majority of the polls for the Republican primary in New Hampshire Trump remains the clear frontrunner with most polls putting him in the +50% range with Haley trailing anywhere between the mid-30s and low 40s. So it is pretty likely he will win tomorrow over Haley and the question will be by how much and will it be enough to make Haley drop out of the race?
We may also hope for a better turnout than that of the Iowa Caucus which although Trump did get a major win there, the turnout was quite appalling which kind of dampens the ‘big win’ vibe for Trump. One of the possible reasons for the low turnout could have been due to the very cold weather in the state, others have also suggested disatisfaction with Trump (and other candidates), but really there is no true way of telling the reason unless some kind of study is done on it.
If turnout is more convincing in New Hampshire then the win can perhaps be considered a legit ‘big win’ for Trump, but that remains to be seen. Consider that primaries are – at least in my own opinion – more accessible than caucuses (caucuses require in-person voting, primaries usually do not) – that may help the turnout to some degree, although I am not saying the fact Iowa was a caucus was the sole reason for low turnout as obviously that is not the case.
Anyway. We shall see the result tomorrow. (Sorry bros, Trump wins, spoiler alert) let’s just hope he don’t win in November.
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