It is about that time again. Hey all. Been a while since I have done a blog post as life has just been generally busy lately and I have also just kind of been taking a break too. I have a job now (which is very, very good and still hard to believe) but that does naturally mean I have less time during the week now for obvious reasons. I have also been working on developing my social life and on that front much progress has also been made.
So, right now for me, things are going pretty well fortunately. Are things perfect? Nah… but are they really for anyone? I still have a long way to go on many things and I am still not feeling entirely secure with things but all of that are a work in progress.
But enough of that. I am back here for the reason of tracking the Republican Primaries/Caucuses that will determine the Republican nominee for the 2024 election in November. Based on the observations and polls I have seen so far it seems pretty evident that Donald Trump is well ahead with the closest opponent to him seemingly being Nikki Haley (rather than Ron DeSantis as many had thought would be the closest opponent to Trump).
But close does not really, truly come into it as Trump is so far ahead. By the looks of things the only state that Trump might not win in during the Republican primaries/caucuses is New Hampshire where polls show it is actually pretty close between Trump and Haley, but even then I reckon Trump will probably still win there to in the end.
It is quite unfortunate that despite all that has happened Trump still seems to be by far the most popular among the Republican base. Given all the scandal, court cases, and investigations he is currently facing. This in itself makes this election quite an unusual one as something like this has not quite happened before.
Trump has been thrown off of the Colorado and Maine ballots due to the events of 6th January 2021 – being labelled as an insurrection and using that to disqualify him from those ballots – but I believe ultimately the Supreme Court will likely reverse these decisions and Trump will probably be on all State ballots for the 2024 election in the end. But even the fact that these things have happened anyway are pretty insane as it has never happened before.
It is hard to tell what it may all mean if God forbid Trump manages to win 2024. And the threat of that happeneing I believe is a very real one. Current polls for the election show it is uncomfortably close. But there is still plenty of time between now and November for things to change. I personally believe that Biden should step aside for a stronger Democratic candidate to face Trump, but it is pretty clear this is not going to happen and it is basically a foregone conclusion that Biden will be nominated again as is usual for incumbents.
With that said let us get into the Republican primaries and caucuses. The first one will be the Republican Iowa Caucus that takes place today actually and we should know the outcome by tomorrow which will give us an idea of how future primaries and caucuses are likely to shape up, and dependent on performances we may already see some Republican candidates drop out of the race – one of them already has before they even begun which was Chris Christie, the former Republican Governor of New Jersey who was originally a Trump ally but upon starting his campaign for the presidency made it clear he was opposed to Trump winning the presidency and became one of his biggest critics of the primaries.
Other Republican candidates have been wary of voicing criticism of Trump within their campaigns, talks, and debates. Perhaps some of them holding on to the hope they may become a Trump VP pick or get the offer of some other office or position in a potential second Trump administration once he gathers enough delegates to become the Republican nominee.
The other candidates who have some degree of prominence in the race for Republican nominee are as said Nikki Haley – formerly Governor of South Carolina and the former US ambassador to the UN under the Trump administration – she announced her run on 14th February 2023 despite previously saying she would not run if Trump ran again. Some of her stances include:
- Has been Supportive of an abortion ban from the 15th week of pregnancy except for cases of rape, incest, health, and life of the mother.
- Supports promoting access to contraception.
- Has said the controversial Florida Parental Rights in Education Act – ‘Don’t Say Gay’ law – does not go far enough, saying prohibitions against discussing sex and sexuality before 3rd grade should be subject to opt-in parental consent, and possibly extended up to 7th grade.
- Has said the participation of trans women in women’s sports is a threat to the ability of cisgender women to compete in women’s categories.
- Signed a placard from Concerned Women for America that stated only women can be pregnant and bear children and that federal agencies should uphold the concept of binary sex in every policy and programme. It had also been signed by Donald Trump and Vivek.
- Willing to make significant budget cuts, including to Medicare and Social Security, also called for increasing the retirement age for future beneficiaries of those programmes and is supportive of means-testing those programmes.
- Says she would pardon Trump if she became President and has been generally critical of criminal proceedings and investigations against him. She also said she would support Trump if he became the Republican nominee even if he were to be convicted.
- Although she had admitted climate change is human-made she has been largely critical of enviromental and green policies. She has pledged to withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Accord again just like Trump did, and would revoke regulations that restrict fossil fuel production and that curtail pollution from power plants, vehicles, and that she would eliminate renewable energy subsidies.
- Has said she supports congressional term limits and mandatory mental competence tests for politicians aged 75 or older.
- Opposed to labor unions.
Sources
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Another candidate who was thought to be the original top runner – had Trump not ran – and who was thought to then be someone who would at least be the closest rival to Trump – before Nikki Haley rose in the polls – is now seen as someone who probably isn’t going to be such a figure as either now. DeSantis was always a big Trump supporter and it has been clear from the get-go he wanted to capitalise on that in his run for President.
DeSantis ever since being elected the Governor of Florida has been a controversial figure both in the state and nationwide due to his support of Trump and Trumpian politics and policies. Although his run for President has caused his alienation from Trump and many of Trump’s supporters, this has not led to DeSantis changing his own tact towards Trump much if at all. Some of his stances include:
- Is supportive of abortion ban and has signed bills for banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy and later on signed an even stricter bill that banned it after 6 weeks.
- Has led efforts to remake education curriculums by restricting classroom discussions on sex and gender identity and is behind the controversial ‘Don’t Say Gay’ bill.
- Is strongly critical of illegal immigration and the handling of it and is supportive of continuing to build Trump’s border wall along the Mexico border. Pledges include ending catch and release, reimposing Remain in Mexico for asylum seeker processing, ending birthright citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants, and increasing deportations, among various other measures.
- Although he has supported the implementation of a medical marijuana programme in Florida he does not support legalising cannabis recreationally.
- Has economic and foreign policy pledges aimed at countering China on the global stage.
- Would require all military services to impose gender neutral physical qualification standards. Would also ban race and gender quotas in military recruiting and promotions. Also wants to reinstate unvaccinated service members. Wants to get rid of diversity, equity and inclusion hirings in the military.
- Would take a harder line against narco-trafficking in Mexico and Latin America including by use of sanctions against cartels, their leaders, and other entities, the usage of force, including direct action like stopping precursor drugs going through Mexican ports via the Coast Guard and Navy if the Mexican government fails to stop it themselves.
Sources
Next up is one of the lesser known candidates but also someone who seems to have (unfortunately) developed a bit of a cult following due to his pledges and policies. That person is Vivek Ramaswamy. He does not have a background in politics like the other candidates (but then again neither did Trump before he ran and ended up becoming President). He is an American entrepreneur and investor who founded the Roivent Sciences pharmaceutical company and co-founded the investment firm Strive Asset Management. Some of his stances include:
- Has claimed the US is in the middle of an identity crisis which he says was precipated by what he calls new secular religions such as COVID-ism, climate-ism, and gender ideology.
- Is a critic of environmental, social, and corporate government initiatives.
- Supported Trump in the 2020 election and continues to vocally support Trump despite running against him – has also said he would pardon Trump if he became President.
- Also promised to pardon Julian Assange, Ross Ulbricht, and Edward Snowden.
- Opposes affirmative action and said he would rescind Exective Order 11246.
- Says critical race theory has indoctrinated students in public schools.
- Opposes abortion and supports state-level bans on abortion at the 6th week of pregnancy, with exceptions for cases of rape, incest, and danger to the women’s life. Does not support a ban on the federal level.
- Has called the LGBT movement a ‘cult’ and has been supportive of broad restrictions on the rights of transgender Americans.
- Wants to make substantial changes to federal government including firing 75% of federal employees; dismantle civil service protections; allow the ability to dismiss any federal employee at-will; would abolish at least five federal agencies including the Education Department, FBI, ATF, IRS, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and the USDA Food and Nutrition Service, also threatened to expose and ultimately gut the Food and Drug Administration; among other changes.
- Favours raising voting age to 25, although those aged between 18-24 who either serve in the military, work as first responders, or pass the civics test required for naturalization could still vote.
- Wants to end birthright citizenship for anyone born in the US and require passing of a civics test in school to attain citizenship.
Sources
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Anyway I could keep going but I think you get the gist. This Vivek guy is pretty insane and the fact he is even placing as high as 4th in the Republican primaries is worrying to say the least. This guy would by far be worse than Donald Trump. In my own opinion none of these top candidates have any particularly good policies and are all controversial in their own ways and all have some degree of Trumpism within them. So really, do you want Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump, or that absolutely insane entreprenuer?
They will all be going up against Donald Trump in Iowa later today and we shall find out tomorrow who the big winner is. I suspect Trump (the real one) will probably win in Iowa ultimately but the question is by how much and will anyone be dropping out? It is possible we may find out pretty quickly this year who the Republican nominee will be, perhaps even before Super Tuesday.
Although it is a shame there is no actually moderate Republican candidate that has a chance of winning (some would argue if such candidates even exist anymore) I still enjoy all the numbers and analysis that come from these things so I am at least excited for that, if not for any of the choices…
See you then.
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