UPDATE: I have ended the tracker since Bernie Sanders has now dropped out and Joe Biden being nominated by the DNC is basically a certainty now with no other major contenders left standing.
PART 1 IS HERE FOR PREVIOUS RESULTS OF THE LAST 18 STATES AND AMERICAN SAMOA.
I am starting this to keep track of all results from each Democratic Primary and Caucus as they happen, so this post will remain pinned for the duration, it will be ordered by when the caucus/primary took place.
The Primaries and Caucuses will decide the Democratic Party nominee to take on the Republican nominee which is almost certainly guaranteed to be Donald Trump. There are 3,979 pledged delegates at stake in 50 US states and 5 US overseas territories. Democrats living Abroad also get their own primary and the District of Colombia (where the US capital Washington D.C is) also have a Primary. Pledged delegates are proportionally allocated based on set rules by each primary/caucus. 1,990 unpledged delegates are required for the Democratic nomination at the DNC Convention later this year.
There are also Superdelegates appointed by the party, there are 771 of these and they are free to choose who they want to vote for, but for the first time their vote only has an effect if there are subsequent ballots if the DNC Convention is still contested. If Superdelegates votes become decisive in subsequent ballots then a candidate will need a majority of 2,376 of all delegates to clinch the nomination.
Total Delegate Share
2,302/3,979 pledged delegates allocated. 1,990 to win the nomination on first ballot at DNC Convention.
26/50 State Primaries/Caucuses passed
2/7 Overseas, Capital and Democrats Abroad Caucuses/Primaries passed
UPDATE: Donald Trump has surpassed the 1,276 delegate threshold in the Republican Primaries/Caucuses allowing him to be made the Republican nominee at the RNC Convention later this year and run for re-election as US President, despite a challenge from Bill Weld who so far only managed to pick up a single delegate.
ALERT: Due to the coronavirus pandemic several primaries have been postponed, these include the Lousiana Primary, Ohio Primary, Georgia Primary, Puerto Rico Primary, Connecticut Primary, Maryland Primary, Indiana Primary and Kentucky Primary, Alaska Party-run Primary, Hawaii Party-run Primary and Wyoming Primary so far.
Ohio Primary was moved from the 17th March to the 28th April.
Georgia Primary was moved from the 24th March to the 19th May.
Lousiana Primary was moved from the 4th April to the 20th June.
Puerto Rico Primary was moved from 29th March to the 26th April.
Connecticut Primary was moved from 28th April to the 2nd June.
Maryland Primary was moved from 28th April to 2nd June.
Indiana Primary was moved from 5th May to 2nd June.
Alaska Democratic Party-run Primary – in-person voting cancelled, mail-in ballots only – so extended until 10th April.
Wyoming Primary – in-person voting cancelled, mail-in ballots only – so extended until 17th April.
Hawaii Democratic Party-run Primary moved to 22nd May.
The above dates are of course subject to change based on what happens with coronavirus.
| Candidates | Delegates (1,990 to win) |
| Joe Biden (Projected Winner) | 1,217 |
| Bernie Sanders (Dropped Out) | 914 |
| Elizabeth Warren (Dropped Out) | 81 |
| Michael Bloomberg (Dropped Out) | 55 |
| Pete Buttigieg (Dropped Out) | 26 |
| Amy Klobuchar (Dropped Out) | 7 |
| Tulsi Gabbard (Dropped Out) | 2 |
Ahead in the Popular Vote: Joe Biden
Remember that candidates who have dropped out can still be voted for by write-ins in many states. Also note there are other lesser known candidates running in a number of the contests, none of whom are at all likely to win. All of the mentioned candidates are the major ones.
- Richard Ojeda – Nov 8th 2018-Jan 25th 2019 – Now running for US Senate in West Virginia.
- Eric Swalwell – April 8th-July 8th 2019 – Now running for re-election for the US House in California’s 15th Congressional District.
- Mike Gravel – April 2nd-Aug 6th 2019 – Endorsed both Tulsi Gabbard and Bernie Sanders for the DNC nomination.
- John Hickenlooper – March 4th-Aug 15th 2019 – Now running for US Senate in Colorado. Endorsed Micheal Bennet for DNC nomination.
- Jay Inslee – March 1st-Aug 21st 2019 – Now running for re-election for Governor of Washington.
- Seth Moulton – April 22nd-Aug 23rd 2019 – Now running for re-election for the US House in Massachusett’s 6th Congressional District, endorsed Joe Biden for DNC nomination.
- Kirsten Gillibrand – March 17th-Aug 28th 2019.
- Bill de Blasio – May 16th-Sep 20th 2019. Endorsed Bernie Sanders for DNC nomination.
- Tim Ryan – April 4th-Oct 24th 2019 – Now running for re-election for the US House in Ohio’s 13th Congressional District. Endorsed Joe Biden for DNC nomination.
- Beto O’Rourke – March 14th-Nov 1st 2019.
- Wayne Messam – March 28th-Nov 19th 2019.
- Joe Sestak – June 23rd – Dec 1st 2019 – endorsed Amy Klobuchar for DNC nomination.
- Steve Bullock – May 14th-Dec 2nd 2019.
- Kamala Harris – Jan 21st-Dec 3rd 2019.
- Julian Castro – Jan 12th 2019-Jan 2nd 2020 – endorsed Elizabeth Warren for DNC nomination.
- Marianne Williamson – Jan 28th 2019-Jan 10th 2020.
- Cory Booker – Feb 1st 2019-Jan 13th 2020 – Now running for re-election to US Senate in New Jersey.
- John Delaney – July 28th 2017-Jan 31st 2020.
- Micheal Bennet – May 2nd 2019 – Feb 11th 2020
- Andrew Yang – Nov 6th 2017 – Feb 11th 2020 – endorsed Joe Biden.
- Deval Patrick – Nov 14th 2019 – Feb 12th 2020
- Tom Steyer – July 9th 2019 – Feb 29th 2020
- Pete Buttigieg – April 14th 2019 – March 1st 2020 – endorsed Joe Biden.
- Amy Klobuchar – Feb 10th 2019 – March 2nd 2020 – endorsed Joe Biden.
- Michael Bloomberg – Nov 24th 2019 – March 4th 2020 – endorsed Joe Biden.
- Elizabeth Warren – Feb 9th 2019 – March 5th 2020
- Tulsi Gabbard – Jan 11th 2019 – March 19th 2020 – endorsed Joe Biden.
- Bernie Sanders – Feb 19th 2019 – April 8th 2020.
Contests
7 Contests – 10th March
There will be 5 state primaries and a firehouse caucus in North Dakota and as well as that the voting for the Democrats Abroad Party-run primary/caucus ends which is where registered Democrats who live outside the US are represented. A total of 365 delegates are at stake.
Democrats Abroad Party-Run Primaries/Caucuses
Democrats Abroad primary allows registered Democrats living outside of the US a chance to participate in the nomination process. 13 delegates are at stake and they are proportionally allocated based on the results.
I doubt there will be any polls possible for this but I can say that Bernie Sanders won the most delegates from this in 2016, so I guess it just depends on how the composition of these voters have changed over the last 4-years. FiveThirtyEight is giving Sanders a 60%+ chance of winning the most delegates from this.
Delegate Share
Bernie Sanders – 9
Joe Biden – 4
Popular Vote Winner: Bernie Sanders
Idaho Primary
Idaho’s closed Primary will have 20 delegates at stake. 13 delegates are proportionally allocated based on performances in the states congressional districts and 7 delegates are proportionally allocated based on at-large performance.
Idaho Polls
| Lead | Percent | MoE | Runner Up | Company | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Joe Biden | 51% – +4 | 5.4% | Bernie Sanders | Data for Progress | 329 likely voters | Mar 7th-9th |
Delegate Share
Joe Biden – 11
Bernie Sanders – 9
Popular Vote Winner: Joe Biden
Despite the Data for Progress poll being within the margin of error Joe Biden ended up getting the win here over Sanders, a seemingly better win also than the one poll predicted.
Michigan Primary
Michigan’s closed Primary will have 125 delegates at stake. 82 delegates are proportionally allocated based on performances in the states congressional districts and 43 delegates are proportionally allocated based on at-large performance.
Michigan Polls
| Lead | Percent | MoE | Runner Up | Company | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Joe Biden | 27% – +5 | 3.1% | Bernie Sanders | Baldwin Wallace Uni | 1,023 registered voters | Jan 8th-20th |
| Bernie Sanders | 25% – +9 | 3-4% | Joe Biden | YouGov | 1,300 | Feb 11th-20th |
| Joe Biden | 29% – +7 | 4% | Bernie Sanders | Glengariff | 600 | Feb 28th-Mar 2nd |
| Joe Biden | 54% – +21 | 4% | Bernie Sanders | Mitchell | 602 likely voters | March 8th |
| Joe Biden | 51% – +24 | – | Bernie Sanders | EPIC-MRA | 400 likely voters | Mar 4th-6th |
| Joe Biden | 51% – +15 | 3.1% | Bernie Sanders | Monmouth University | 977 registered voters | Mar 5th-8th |
| Joe Biden | 54% – +13 | – | Bernie Sanders | YouGov | 566 registered voters | Mar 6th-8th |
| Joe Biden | 53% – +30 | – | Bernie Sanders | Concord | 305 likely voters | Mar 7th-8th |
| Joe Biden | 65% – +41 | 4% | Bernie Sanders | Target Insyght | 600 | March 8th |
| Joe Biden | 59% – +21 | 5.5% | Bernie Sanders | Data for Progress | 320 likely voters | Mar 7th-9th |
| Joe Biden | 48% – +8 | 3-4% | Bernie Sanders | AtlasIntel | 1,100 registered voters (528 likely voters) | Mar 7th-9th |
Delegate Share
Joe Biden – 73
Bernie Sanders – 52
Popular Vote Winner: Joe Biden
Joe Biden got his big win in Michigan as the polls had predicted in the end and Sanders didn’t cause the upset that was needed for him to really be put forth as a strong contender against Biden, things now look very shaky for Sanders going on.
Mississippi Primary
Mississippi’s open Primary will have 36 delegates at stake. 23 delegates are proportionally allocated based on performances in the states congressional districts and 13 delegates are proportionally allocated based on at-large performance.
Mississippi Polls
| Lead | Percent | MoE | Runner Up | Company | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Joe Biden | 77% – +55 | 5.1% | Bernie Sanders | Data for Progress | 340 likely voters | Mar 4th-7th |
Delegate Share
Joe Biden – 34
Bernie Sanders – 2
Popular Vote Winner: Joe Biden
Joe Biden got the landslide win that the Data for Progress poll had predicted in Mississippi which isn’t too surprising, it was widely expected that Biden would do well here.
Missouri Primary
Missouri’s open Primary will have 68 delegates at stake. 44 delegates are proportionally allocated based on performances in the states congressional districts and 24 delegates are proportionally allocated based on at-large performance.
Missouri Polls
| Lead | Percent | MoE | Runner Up | Company | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Joe Biden | 39% – +25 | 2.6% | Michael Bloomberg | Remington | 1,460 likely voters | Jan 22nd-23rd |
| Joe Biden | 22% – +5 | 2.83% | Michael Bloomberg | Americana Analytics | 1,198 likely voters | Feb 20th-21st |
| Joe Biden | 48% – +4 | 4.7% | Bernie Sanders | Emerson College | 425 likely voters | March 4th-5th |
| Joe Biden | 53% – +22 | 3% | Bernie Sanders | Remington | 1,040 likely voters | March 4th-5th |
| Joe Biden | 62% – +30 | 5.3% | Bernie Sanders | Data for Progress | 348 likely voters | Mar 4th-7th |
Delegate Share
Joe Biden – 44
Bernie Sanders – 24
Popular Vote Winner: Joe Biden
No surprises in Missouri as Biden goes on to get the win expected here over Sanders.
North Dakota Firehouse Caucus
Don’t let the title confuse you, the North Dakota contest actually runs more like a state-run Primary rather than a party-run caucus, the difference is the primary is being run by the party instead of the state government, but they are still voting via secret ballot like a primary and not by groups and debating like in a traditional caucus.
The North Dakota party-run primary is an open contest. 14 delegates are at stake, proportionally allocated by the statewide vote as ND only has a single congressional district for the whole state anyway.
Delegate Share
Bernie Sanders – 8
Joe Biden – 6
Popular Vote Win: Bernie Sanders
With the results now in Bernie Sanders went on to win North Dakota which was the expected outcome at least from FiveThirtyEight’s analysis.
Washington Primary
Washington’s open Primary has 89 delegates at stake. 58 delegates are allocated based on performances in the states congressional districts and 31 delegates are proportionally allocated based on at-large performance.
Washington Polls
| Lead | Percent | MoE | Runner Up | Company | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Bernie Sanders | 26% – +5 | – | Joe Biden | SurveyUSA | 536 | Jan 26th-28th |
| Bernie Sanders | 21% – +6 | 5% | Michael Bloomberg | Elway | 404 likely voters | Feb 15th-18th |
| Joe Biden | 36% – +1 | – | Bernie Sanders | SurveyUSA | 1,200 (550 likely voters) | March 4th-6th |
| Joe Biden | 47% – +3 | 3.6% | Bernie Sanders | Data for Progress | 737 likely voters | March 4th-5th |
| Joe Biden | 49% – +6 | 5.1% | Bernie Sanders | Data for Progress | 751 likely voters | Mar 7th-9th |
Delegate Share
Joe Biden – 46
Bernie Sanders – 43
Popular Vote Winner: Joe Biden
With 67% of the vote in at the Washington Primary the race is still too close to call. Recent polls predict that Biden may get a slight win here, but whatever the outcome it was going to be very close, for now Sanders narrowly leads.
At 77% reporting Biden has now took the lead over Sanders by just over 1% but it is still too close to call. With 87% of the vote now counted and more delegates allocated the race is STILL too close to call with them tying in the delegate race and Biden ahead in the popular vote.
At 94% of votes in it is looking like Biden is heading for victory, but still waiting for an official declaration.
With 95% of the vote in some news websites such as CNN have projected that Joe Biden will get a narrow win here.
Northern Mariana Islands Caucuses – 14th March
The Northern Mariana Islands caucuses will have 6 delegates at stake which are proportionally allocated based on the at-wide vote.
Delegate Share
Bernie Sanders – 4
Joe Biden – 2
Popular Vote Winner: Bernie Sanders
Despite FiveThirtyEight’s analysis showing that Joe Biden had the highest chance of winning the most delegates here, it seems Bernie managed to instead be the winner here. Although it is a smaller glimmer in a sea of shortening odds. It won’t obviously change much.
Up Next: 4 Contests – 17th March
Four state primaries will take place on the 17th March including in a number of pivotal states such as Ohio and Florida. There are a total of 577 delegates at stake on the day. The other two states are Arizona and Illinois.
Arizona Primary
Arizona’s closed Primary has 67 delegates at stake with 44 delegates proportionally allocated based on performance in the state’s congressional districts and 23 delegates proportionally allocated based on the statewide vote.
Arizona Polls
| Lead | Percent | MoE | Runner Up | Company | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Joe Biden | 45% – +28 | 4.91% | Bernie Sanders | OH Predicative Insights | 398 likely voters | Mar 3rd-4th |
| Joe Biden | 51% – +17 | 4.2% | Bernie Sanders | Latino Decisions | 541 likely voters | Mar 6th-11th |
| Joe Biden | 51% – +13 | 5.1% | Bernie Sanders | Monmouth | 373 likely voters | Mar 11th-14th |
| Joe Biden | 50-53% – +13-17 | Varies | Bernie Sanders | Marist | 2,870 registered voters | Mar 10th-15th |
Delegate Share
Joe Biden – 39
Bernie Sanders – 28
Popular Vote Winner: Projected Joe Biden
As polls had been projecting and as is now projected with 88% of the vote in Joe Biden will win the most delegates in Arizona.
Florida Primary
Florida’s closed Primary will have a large 219 delegates at stake with 143 delegates proportionally allocated based on performance in the state’s congressional districts and 76 delegates proportionally allocated based on the state-wide vote.
Florida Polls
| Lead | Percent | MoE | Runner Up | Company | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Joe Biden | 34% – +9 | 1.9% | Michael Bloomberg | St. Pete Polls | 2,788 | Feb 25th-26th |
| Michael Bloomberg | 25% – +<1 | 3.5% | Joe Biden | Saint Leo | 900 likely voters | Feb 17th-22nd |
| Joe Biden | 61% – +48 | 2.3% | Michael Bloomberg | St. Pete Polls | 1,882 | March 4th |
| Joe Biden | 55% – +26 | 2.3% | Bernie Sanders | Point Blank Political | 3,376 | Mar 6th-8th |
| Joe Biden | 61% – +36 | 4.9% | Bernie Sanders | Florida Atlantic | 399 | Mar 5th-7th |
| Joe Biden | 69% – +59 | 2% | Bernie Sanders | St. Pete Polls | 2,480 | Mar 6th-8th |
| Joe Biden | 66% – +44 | 2.5% | Bernie Sanders | Uni of North Florida | 1,502 likely voters | Mar 5th-10th |
| Joe Biden | 65% – +38 | 4.7% | Bernie Sanders | Emerson College | 434 very likely voters | Mar 11th-12th |
| Joe Biden | 66% +41 | 4.3% | Bernie Sanders | Gravis Marketing | 516 likely voters | Mar 10th-12th |
| Joe Biden | 57% – +29 | 2.3% | Bernie Sanders | Point Blank Political | 3,165 likely voters | Mar 11th-13th |
| Joe Biden | 63% – +38 | 4.3% | Bernie Sanders | Latino Decisions | 531 likely voters | Mar 6th-12th |
| Joe Biden | 67% – +40 | 4% | Bernie Sanders | AtlasIntel | 532 likely voters | Mar 14th-16th |
| Joe Biden | 67% – +40 | 3.3% | Bernie Sanders | ROI Rocket | 877 likely voters | Mar 6th-12th |
Delegate Share
Joe Biden – 162
Bernie Sanders – 57
Popular Vote Winner: Joe Biden
Joe Biden got a big win in Florida winning the most delegates and a sizeable popular vote win.
Illinois Primary
Illinois open Primary will have a large 155 delegates at stake with 101 delegates proportionally allocated based on performance in the state’s congressional districts and 54 delegates proportionall allocated based on the state-wide vote.
Illinois Polls
| Lead | Percent | MoE | Runner Up | Company | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Bernie Sanders | 22% – +5 | 4.5% | Michael Bloomberg | Southern Illinois | 475 | Feb 10th-17th |
| Bernie Sanders | 26% – +5 | 2.83% | Joe Biden | Victory Research | 1,200 likely voters | Feb 17th-19th |
| Joe Biden | 55% – +29 | 4.58% | Bernie Sanders | Ogden & Fry | 457 | March 8th |
| Joe Biden | 57% – +20 | 4.1% | Bernie Sanders | Emerson College | 567 very likely voters | Mar 11th-12th |
| Joe Biden | 63% – +38 | 4.2% | Bernie Sanders | Gravis Marketing | 549 likely voters | Mar 10th-12th |
| Joe Biden | 55% – +19 | 2.83% | Bernie Sanders | Victory Research | 1,200 likely voters | Mar 7th-9th |
| Joe Biden | 57% – +23 | 3.1% | Bernie Sanders | ROI Rocket | 960 likely voters | Mar 6th-12th |
Delegate Share
Joe Biden – 95
Bernie Sanders – 59
Popular Vote Winner: Joe Biden
Another big win for Joe Biden this time in Illinois.
Wisconsin Primary – 7th April
Wisconsin has 84 delegates up at stake. 29 delegates are proportionally allocated based on the statewide vote while 55 delegates are proportionally allocated based on candidate performances in each congressional district.
The Wisconsin Primary is going ahead despite the Coronavirus pandemic. The Governor of Wisconsin attempted to postpone the election but Republicans in the state legislature blocked this move, which was upheld by the courts.
Joe Biden is expected to win the most delegates.
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