NOTE: PART 2 TRACKER HERE.
I am starting this to keep track of all results from each Democratic Primary and Caucus as they happen, so this post will remain pinned for the duration, it will be ordered by when the caucus/primary took place.
The Primaries and Caucuses will decide the Democratic Party nominee to take on the Republican nominee which is almost certainly guaranteed to be Donald Trump. There are 3,979 pledged delegates at stake in 50 US states and 5 US overseas territories. Democrats living Abroad also get their own primary and the District of Colombia (where the US capital Washington D.C is) also have a Primary. Pledged delegates are proportionally allocated based on set rules by each primary/caucus. 1,990 unpledged delegates are required for the Democratic nomination at the DNC Convention later this year.
There are also Superdelegates appointed by the party, there are 771 of these and they are free to choose who they want to vote for, but for the first time their vote only has an effect if there are subsequent ballots if the DNC Convention is still contested. If Superdelegates votes become decisive in subsequent ballots then a candidate will need a majority of 2,376 of all delegates to clinch the nomination.
Total Delegate Share
1,409/3,979 pledged delegates allocated. 1,990 to win the nomination on first ballot at DNC Convention.
18/50 State Primaries/Caucuses passed
1/7 Overseas, Capital and Democrats Abroad Caucuses/Primaries passed
| Candidates | Delegates (1,990 to win) |
| Joe Biden | 670 |
| Bernie Sanders | 574 |
| Elizabeth Warren (Dropped Out) | 69 |
| Michael Bloomberg (Dropped Out) | 61 |
| Pete Buttigieg (Dropped Out) | 26 |
| Amy Klobuchar (Dropped Out) | 7 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 2 |
Ahead in the Popular Vote: Joe Biden
Remember that candidates who have dropped out can still be voted for by write-ins in many states. Also note there are other lesser known candidates running in a number of the contests, none of whom are at all likely to win. All of the mentioned candidates are the major ones.
Candidates who have Dropped Out
- Richard Ojeda – Nov 8th 2018-Jan 25th 2019 – Now running for US Senate in West Virginia.
- Eric Swalwell – April 8th-July 8th 2019 – Now running for re-election for the US House in California’s 15th Congressional District.
- Mike Gravel – April 2nd-Aug 6th 2019 – Endorsed both Tulsi Gabbard and Bernie Sanders for the DNC nomination.
- John Hickenlooper – March 4th-Aug 15th 2019 – Now running for US Senate in Colorado. Endorsed Micheal Bennet for DNC nomination.
- Jay Inslee – March 1st-Aug 21st 2019 – Now running for re-election for Governor of Washington.
- Seth Moulton – April 22nd-Aug 23rd 2019 – Now running for re-election for the US House in Massachusett’s 6th Congressional District, endorsed Joe Biden for DNC nomination.
- Kirsten Gillibrand – March 17th-Aug 28th 2019.
- Bill de Blasio – May 16th-Sep 20th 2019. Endorsed Bernie Sanders for DNC nomination.
- Tim Ryan – April 4th-Oct 24th 2019 – Now running for re-election for the US House in Ohio’s 13th Congressional District. Endorsed Joe Biden for DNC nomination.
- Beto O’Rourke – March 14th-Nov 1st 2019.
- Wayne Messam – March 28th-Nov 19th 2019.
- Joe Sestak – June 23rd – Dec 1st 2019 – endorsed Amy Klobuchar for DNC nomination.
- Steve Bullock – May 14th-Dec 2nd 2019.
- Kamala Harris – Jan 21st-Dec 3rd 2019.
- Julian Castro – Jan 12th 2019-Jan 2nd 2020 – endorsed Elizabeth Warren for DNC nomination.
- Marianne Williamson – Jan 28th 2019-Jan 10th 2020.
- Cory Booker – Feb 1st 2019-Jan 13th 2020 – Now running for re-election to US Senate in New Jersey.
- John Delaney – July 28th 2017-Jan 31st 2020.
- Micheal Bennet – May 2nd 2019 – Feb 11th 2020
- Andrew Yang – Nov 6th 2017 – Feb 11th 2020 – endorsed Joe Biden.
- Deval Patrick – Nov 14th 2019 – Feb 12th 2020
- Tom Steyer – July 9th 2019 – Feb 29th 2020
- Pete Buttigieg – April 14th 2019 – March 1st 2020 – endorsed Joe Biden.
- Amy Klobuchar – Feb 10th 2019 – March 2nd 2020 – endorsed Joe Biden.
- Michael Bloomberg – Nov 24th 2019 – March 4th 2020 – endorsed Joe Biden
- Elizabeth Warren – Feb 9th 2019 – March 5th 2020
Iowa Caucus – 3rd Feb
The Iowa Democratic Caucus was a closed caucus. State Delegate Equivalent numbers decide how many unpledged Delegates each candidate gets, the S.D.E numbers are based on vote performance in each County and statewide. There are 41 pledged delegates at stake.
The results are 100% now according to the local Iowa Democrat Party.
UPDATE: Despite results being complete, the Associated Press, which most of the trackers out there seem to be sourcing their results from, have said they are unable to declare a winner due to errors in the results… and so the choas continues, could we see a recount?
UPDATE 2: Both the Bernie and Buttigieg campaigns have requested a recanvass in Iowa.
Buttigieg narrowly tops it with 14 of the 41 delegates followed by Bernie Sanders with 12, meanwhile Elizabeth Warren has 8. Biden has 6 and Amy Klobuchar has 1. All delegates have now been allocatted according to Google’s tracker, this is despite the ongoing discrepancy with the results, there is potentially still a chance we see a recount in Iowa, but for now the local Iowa Democrat Party, who runs the state’s caucus, is refusing this, despite being asked by the DNC Chair. Despite Buttigieg winning in delegates, Bernie still won the popular vote overall.
Joe Biden has performed badly in the Iowa Caucus compared to what was expected, it will be a big damper for him in the start of the Primary/Caucus season and could hurt his chances in the Primaries and Caucuses soon to come, there is speculation that it may cause more moderate voters to move over to other candidates such as Buttigieg, who are more stable, Bloomberg may also possibly benefit from this later on. Although he called it a “gut punch” he has vowed to go on, but it does bring back memories of his two previous failed attempts at the Presidency nomination.
UPDATE 3: The Iowa Democratic Party have finished the recanvass and announced that Buttgieg still had a tiny lead in the state delegate count over Bernie Sanders. Bernie’s campaign is continuning to challenge the result while AP News has said it isn’t making a call on who won due to worry over the accuracy of results. The ending of the recount finally allows the last delegate to be allocated to Buttigieg.
Popular Vote Winner: Bernie Sanders
Delegate Share
Pete Buttigieg – 14
Bernie Sanders – 12
Elizabeth Warren – 8
Joe Biden – 6
Amy Klobuchar – 1
New Hampshire Primary – 11th Feb
New Hampshire is a semi-closed Primary. 24 delegates are at stake with 8 allocatted proportionally based on statewide vote and the other 16 delegates are proportionally allocatted based on vote tallies in the states congressional districts.
In the New Hampshire Primary the candidate Bernie Sanders got his expected win but it was a narrow win and Buttigieg who came 2nd still got the same proportional share of the 24 delegates than Bernie did at 9. In 3rd place was Amy Klobuchar who did surprisingly well in the state, beating both Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden in the state primary and got the final 6 delegates in the state.
Joe Biden’s dismal 5th placement is once again a terrible result for who was the national front-runner, but he still has a chance of redemption in South Carolina which he is now strongly focusing on. Meanwhile Elizabeth Warren also performed poorly, placing 4th and unlike Biden, her future path is more unclear.
Andrew Yang and Micheal Bennet have dropped out of the presidential race after their performance, Micheal Bennet was really hoping to do well in the state due to his mass campaigning there, but in the end it didn’t pay off. Meanwhile Andrew Yang, who had got quite the cult following, just could not get the support he needed in the first two contests, likely indicating his support is too widespread and not focused enough, but he may be someone to watch in the future.
The long-shot candidate Deval Patrick also later dropped out of the race, being the latest candidate to enter the race. He dropped out due to poor showings in the early states.
Exit polls from CNN showed that Bernie Sanders obtained the highest vote share from both nonwhites and Hispanics and also narrowly got the highest votes from whites with Buttigieg very close behind.
Exit polls from NBC showed that Bernie Sanders obtained the highest vote share from men, while Buttgieg obtained the highest vote share from woman.
Delegate Share
Bernie Sanders – 9
Pete Buttigieg – 9
Amy Klobuchar – 6
Popular Vote Winner: Bernie Sanders
My Prediction (before the primary): Close race between Sanders and Buttigieg again. Likely Sanders win, but could be narrow win. Another poor performance from Biden.
Nevada Caucus – 22nd Feb
The Nevada caucus is a closed caucus, caucuses are held in all of the states precincts which depending on their outcome will determine how the delegates are allocated by congressional district and at-large levels. There are 36 delegates at stake. 23 delegates are proportionally allocated based on performance in each of the states congressional districts and the other 13 are proportionally allocated based on overall performance at-large. Each county proportionally awards “county delegates” based on how well candidates do in precinct caucuses, these county delegates are then the basis of how the state delegates are allocated.
So far in very, very early results/observations Bernie Sanders appears to be doing very well. Elizabeth Warren on the other hand seems to be having a hard time as it stands and there are reports of her nonviable groups in precincts switching over to Biden giving him an unprecedented boost. This puts my prediction fairly off on some points if this holds. But it is very early yet.
Nevada is one of the states that Tom Steyer is banking on to keep his momentum going, another is South Carolina, both states he has spent lots and lots of money on TV ads. If he does bad in this caucus and also in the SC Primary it could likely spell the end of his presidential run. Very early results so far don’t look promising.
With just about 50% of the results in Bernie Sanders is projected to get a comfortable win in the state, winning both the popular vote and the most delegates. Joe Biden although as it stands, 3rd in the popular vote, is 2nd place in county delegates (which determine state delegate allocation). Buttgieg is in 2nd on popular vote but 3rd in county delegates. For the rest of the candidates it is a bad showing, especially for Elizabeth Warren who despite doing very well in the latest Democratic Debate has failed to see this turn into a boost for her in Nevada like some projected that it may, she will likely be hoping for a good showing on Super Tuesday in states such as California, which if doesn’t happen could see her presidential run in trouble.
With 88% of results now reporting, Joe Biden has now pulled quite a bit ahead of Pete Buttigieg in the popular vote, likely giving him a more comfortable 2nd placing. Results though are coming out slow due to reported confusion over rules, calculation glitches and delays reporting tallies.
All of the delagates have now be allocated with 96% reporting. The rest of the results won’t matter now as the placements are basically finalised at this point and Buttigieg was unable to to beat Joe Biden in the popular vote. Buttigieg has though complained of irregularities in the caucus.
My Preditiction: Bernie Sanders wins but Elizabeth Warren does better than expected, possibly taking a good chunk of the delegates. Poor showing for Biden again, Buttigieg may benefit from this.
Delegate Share
Bernie Sanders – 24
Joe Biden – 9
Pete Buttigieg – 3
Popular Vote Winner: Bernie Sanders
Nevada Caucus Polls Timeline (2020)
| Candidate Lead | point lead | company/poll by | fieldwork |
| Joe Biden | 23% – +6 | Fox News | Jan 5th-8th |
| Bernie Sanders | 29% – +1 | Myers Research/Strategic Services | Jan 6th-8th |
| Joe Biden | 19% – +2 | Suffolk University | Jan 8th-11th |
| Bernie Sanders | 25% – +7 | WPA Intelligence (news article source) | Feb 11th-13th |
| Bernie Sanders | 35% – +19 | Data for Progress | Feb 12th-15th |
| Tom Steyer | 19% – +3 | Point Blank Political | Feb 13th-15th |
| Bernie Sanders | 24% – +5 | Beacon Research (Twitter source) | Feb 12th-15th |
| Bernie Sanders | 30% – +14 | Emerson College | Feb 19th-20th |
| Bernie Sanders | 35% – +19 | Data for Progress | Feb 19th-21st |
| Bernie Sanders | 38% – +24 | AtlasIntel | Feb 19th-21st |
South Carolina Primary – 29th Feb
South Carolina will hold an Open Primary. 54 delegates are at stake here with 42 of these delegates proportionally allocated based on performance in each of the states congressional districts and the final 12 delegates proportionally allocated based on how candidate perform at-large.
Unfortunately I could only get on today, Sunday, to update this as my internet was down for the entirety of Saturday due to some big outage that wasn’t fixed until the early hours of Sunday morning. So I missed the Primary election results but I’ll give a quick run down anyway.
So all in all Joe Biden got the big break he needed in South Carolina winning a big majority and picking up most of the delegates, although the 100% of the results are in for some reason 10 more delegates still need to be allocated. But yeah, big win for Biden, a bit of a downer for Bernie but he did manage to be the only candidate who got a proportional share of the delegates.
Tom Steyer, although he came third didn’t reach the 15% threshold to qualify for a proportional share of delegates, and so due to this performance he has dropped out of the presidential race now, which can be good for the other more centrist candidates.
The big win for Biden may potentially boost his chances for Super Tuesday in two days time, but I think he is still possibly going to be done in by Bloomberg. Super Tuesday is going to be crucial for all candidates involved and I think we are going to see at least two or three candidates drop-out on that day. I am surprised though that Tulsi Gabbard hasn’t dropped out yet when at this point I think she stands basically no chance.
South Carolina is the first state where Bernie Sanders has not won the majority of votes. Biden’s result in SC has also put him ahead in the overall national majority vote for now.
Delegate Share
Joe Biden – 39
Bernie Sanders – 15
Popular Vote Winner: Joe Biden
South Carolina Polls Timeline (from 21st Feb)
| Candidate Lead | Point Lead | Company/poll by | Fieldwork |
| Subjective | Varies but overall support stronger with Joe Biden. | Marist College | Feb 18th-21st |
| Joe Biden | 28% – +5 | YouGov | Feb 20th-22nd |
| Joe Biden | 36% – +15 | Public Policy Polling | Feb 23rd-24th |
| Joe Biden | 35% – +18 | Clemson University | Feb 17th-25th |
| Joe Biden | 31% – +7 | East Carolina University | Feb 23rd-24th |
| Joe Biden | 41% – +17 | Emerson College | Feb 26th-27th |
| Joe Biden | 34% – +9 | Data for Progress | Feb 23rd-27th |
| Joe Biden | 28% – +4 | Change Research | Feb 23rd-27th |
| Joe Biden | 40% – +28 | Starboard Communications | Feb 26th |
| Joe Biden | 36% – +20 | Monmouth University | Feb 23rd-25th |
My prediction: Biden gets a fairly good win on delegates and popular vote in SC. Sanders should come 2nd. Steyer will likely be 3rd. Poor performance for other candidates.
Up Next : Super Tuesday – 3rd March
Super Tuesday is known as such as it has the most contests for the democratic nomination held on a single day with 14-state Primaries happening and one caucus in the overseas territory of American Samoa.
The states holding primaries on this day are Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia. As can be seen, it is a lot of big-fish states that are crucial for the candidates standing to do well in.
So as you can see it is going to be a big day with a whopping 1,345 delegates up for grabs. Micheal Bloomberg also fully enters on to the contest ballots on this day as well and it appears he may make quite a dent into the other centrist candidates, Joe Biden in particular could be damaged by this.
Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren on the other hand will be battling it out for states such as California and Massachusetts and Bernie will also be hoping for a big win in Texas, which some of his supporters are even hoping he could flip in a Presidential election match-up with Trump, although I myself am doubtful of this happening. I do think Texas will flip to the Democrats one day but I think it will be a couple more election-cycles yet.
The Contests
14 State Primaries and 1 Overseas Territory Caucus. NOTE: Bonus delegates may be awarded so the below counts are likely not exact and a number of states are likely to award bonus delegates.
The result of the below contests led to Michael Bloomberg pulling out of the presidential race after poor performances on the day he poured millions of his wealth into, with Bernie and Biden seen as the winners of the day, although Biden has performaned the best of all – a surprise to many.
Elizabeth Warren also later dropped out of the race due to poor performances in the Super Tuesday contests including failing to win her state of Massachusetts.
Alabama Primary
Alabama’s Open Primary will have 52 delegates at stake. 41 delegates are proportionally allocated based on performance in congressional districts and the other 11 are proportionally allocated based on at-large performance.
Alabama Polls
| Lead Candidate | Point Lead | Margin of Error | Runner Up | Company/poll by | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Joe Biden | 47% – +25 | 6.4% | Bernie Sanders | Data for Progress | 237 likely voters | Feb 27th-Mar 2nd |
Joe Biden ended up pulling off a healthy win in Alabama which was mostly expected from the limited polls performed. Sanders and Bloomberg also qualified for some delegates but they were not close to Biden.
Delegate Share
Joe Biden – 44
Bernie Sanders – 7
Michael Bloomberg – 1
Popular Vote Winner: Joe Biden
American Samoa Caucuses
American Samoa’s Open Caucuses will have 6 delegates at stake and all are awarded proportionally by candidate performance at-large.
American Samoa Polls
| Lead Candidate | Point Lead | Runner Up | Company/poll by | Fieldwork |
Michael Bloomberg won in American Samoa and is the only place he managed to win on Super Tuesday, a disapointment for the man who put millions upon millions into the day, but he did at least get the satisfaction of taking what could have been Tulsi Gabbard’s only win away, it appears she did quite well likely due to her being born here and got her first and probably only delegate of the primaries/caucuses.
Delegate Share
Michael Bloomberg – 4
Tulsi Gabbard – 2
Popular Vote Winner: Michael Bloomberg
Arkansas Primary
The Arkansas Open Primary will have 31 delegates at stake. 24 delegates are proportionally allocated based on performance in the congressional districts and the final 7 are allocated based on at-large performance.
Arkansas Polls
| Lead Candidate | Point Lead | Margin of Error | Runner Up | Company/poll by | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Micheal Bloomberg | 20% – +1 | 4.3% | Joe Biden | Hendrix College | 496 likely voters | Feb 6th-7th |
| Joe Biden | 36% – +13 | 5.6% | Bernie Sanders | Data for Progess | 300 likely voters | Feb 27th-Mar 2nd |
As the most recent polls predicted Joe Biden got in a win here with the highest delegate share and popular vote, followed by Sanders and then Bloomberg.
Delegate Share
Joe Biden – 17
Bernie Sanders – 9
Michael Bloomberg – 5
Popular Vote Winner: Joe Biden
California Primary
The California Semi-closed Primary has a large 415 delegates at stake, more than any other state. 325 delegates are proportionally allocated based on performance in congressional districts while 90 delegates are proportionally allocated based on at-large performance.
California Polls
| Lead Candidate | Point Lead | Margin of Error | Runner Up | Company/poll by | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Bernie Sanders | 29% – +8 | 3.1% | Joe Biden | YouGov | 1,200 likely voters | Feb 1st-15th |
| Bernie Sanders | 24% – +7 | 4.9% | Joe Biden | Monmouth University | 408 likely voters | Feb 16th-19th |
| Bernie Sanders | 24% – +8 | 6.7% | Elizabeth Warren | University of Massachusetts Lowell | 450 likely voters | Feb 12th-20th |
| Bernie Sanders | 37% – +17 | 2.3% | Elizabeth Warren | Change Research | 1,822 likely voters | Feb 20th-23rd |
| Bernie Sanders | 34% – +21 | 3% | Elizabeth Warren | Point Blank Political | 2,098 likely voters | Feb 23rd-25th |
| Bernie Sanders | 34% – +16 | 2% | Elizabeth Warren | University of California, Berkeley | N/A | Feb 20th-25th |
| Bernie Sanders | 35% – +21 | 5.2% | Elizabeth Warren | CNN/SSRS | 488 likely voters | Feb 22nd-26th |
| Bernie Sanders | 34% – +20 | 2.9% | Warren and Biden (tying) | Point Blank Political | 2,276 | Feb 26th-28th |
| Bernie Sanders | 35% – +19 | – | Michael Bloomberg | Suffolk University | 500 | Feb 26th-29th |
| Bernie Sanders | 31% – +12 | 4% | Joe Biden | YouGov | 1,411 likely voters | Feb 27th-29th |
| Bernie Sanders | 38% – +17 | 4.1% | Joe Biden | Emerson College | 545 very likely voters | Feb 29th-Mar 1st |
| Bernie Sanders | 34% – +12 | 4.1% | Joe Biden | Point Blank Political | 549 | Feb 29th-Mar 1st |
| Bernie Sanders | 34% – +8 | 3-4% | Joe Biden | AtlasIntel | 1,100 registered voters (727 likely voters) | Feb 24th- Mar 2nd |
| Bernie Sanders | 32% – +7 | 4.3% | Joe Biden | Data for Progress | 516 likely voters | Feb 27th – Mar 2nd |
With results 79% in it appears Bernie is still well ahead and is increasingly unlikely to be overtaken. Bernie went on to have a decisive win in California.
Warren and Bloomberg have performed likely not how they would have liked, it is especially bad for Warren.
Delegate Share
1 delegate yet to be allocated
Bernie Sanders – 221
Joe Biden – 172
Elizabeth Warren – 12
Michael Bloomberg – 9
Popular Vote Winner: Bernie Sanders
Colorado Primary
The Colorado Semi-closed Primary will have 67 delegates at stake. 53 delegates are allocated based on performances in the congressional districts while 14 are allocated by performance at-large.
Colorado polls
| Candidate Lead | Point Lead | Margin of Error | Runner Up | Company/Poll by | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Bernie Sanders | 34% – +14 | 4.7% | Elizabeth Warren | Data for Progress | 471 likely voters | Feb 23rd-25th |
| Bernie Sanders | 27% – +12 | 4.38% | Elizabeth Warren | Magellan Strategies | 500 likely voters | Feb 24th-25th |
| Bernie Sanders | 34% – +20 | 4.1% | Elizabeth Warren | Elucd | 561 | Feb 26th- Mar 1st |
| Bernie Sanders | 32% – +11 | 4.2% | Elizabeth Warren | Data for Progress | 464 likely voters | Feb 27th – Mar 2nd |
With 67% of the vote in Bernie has a comfortable lead and multiple news media have declared him the winner here, meanwhile it appears this is one of the states where Bloomberg did damage Biden’s chances. Elizabeth Warren on the other hand has terribly underperformed in the state compared to what polls were saying, placing 4th as it stands.
Delegate share
7 delegates yet to be allocated
Bernie Sanders – 25
Joe Biden – 18
Michael Bloomberg – 9
Elizabeth Warren – 8
Popular Vote Winner: Bernie Sanders
Maine Primary
In the Maine Closed Primary there are 24 delegates at stake. 19 delegates are proportionally allocated based on performances in the congressional districts while 5 are proportionally allocated based on at-large performance.
Maine Polls
| Candidate Lead | Point Lead | Margin of Error | Runner Up | Company/Poll by | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Bernie Sanders | 25% – +9 | 3.21% | Pete Buttigieg | SocialSphere | 1,008 registered voters | Feb 10th-13th |
| Bernie Sanders | 43% – +19 | – | Joe Biden | Change Research | 507 | Mar 1st-2nd |
| Bernie Sanders | 34% – +9 | 4.9% | Joe Biden | Data for Progress | 385 likely voters | Feb 28th – Mar 2nd |
Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are practically neck and neck here at the moment with 81% of the vote in – it’s going to be a very close one.
Delegate Share
Joe Biden – 11
Bernie Sanders – 9
Elizabeth Warren – 4
Popular Vote Winner: Joe Biden
Massachusetts Primary
In the Massachusetts Semi-closed Primary there are 91 delegates at stake. 71 delegates are proportionally allocated based on performances in the congressional districts and 20 delegates are proportionally allocated based on at-large performance.
Note: Since Elizabeth Warren is a federal Senator for this state in the US Senate she will be hoping for a good win here.
Massachusetts Polls
| Candidate Lead | Point Lead | Margin of Error | Runner Up | Company/Poll by | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Elizabeth Warren | 23% – +7 | 5.3% | Joe Biden | Falchuk & DiNatale | 334 | Jan 27th-30th |
| Bernie Sanders | 17% – +1 | (doesn’t say) | Elizabeth Warren | Falchuk & DiNatale | 453 registered voters | Feb 16th-18th |
| Bernie Sanders | 21% – +1 | 6.1% | Elizabeth Warren | University of Massachusetts Lowell | 450 likely voters | Feb 12th-19th |
| Bernie Sanders | 25% – +2 | 5.9% | Elizabeth Warren | YouGov | 400 likely voters | Fbe 18th-24th |
| Bernie Sanders | 25% – +8 | 4.9% | Elizabeth Warren | MassINC Polling Group | 426 likely voters | Feb 23rd-26th |
| Bernie Sanders | 24% – +2 | – | Elizabeth Warren | Suffolk University | 500 | Feb 26th-29th |
| Elizabeth Warren | 28% – +2 | 5.6% | Bernie Sanders | Data for Progress | 301 likely voters | Feb 28th – Mar 2nd |
Contrary to what the polls were saying Joe Biden ended up pulling off an upset by winning in Massachusetts over the two front-runners Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, of which it appears the progressive vote is split, allowing Biden a win, with Bloomberg not doing well enough to tank Biden.
Delegate Share
Joe Biden – 37
Bernie Sanders – 29
Elizabeth Warren – 25
Popular Vote Winner: Joe Biden
Minnesota Primary
The Minnesota Open Primary has 75 delegates at stake. 59 delegates will be allocated based on performances in the congressional districts while 16 delegates are allocated based on at-large performance.
Note: Amy Klobuchar will be hoping to do well or even get a win here as she is a Federal Senator in the US Senate for Minnesota.
Minnesota Polls
| Candidate Lead | Point Lead | Margin of Error | Runner Up | Company/Poll by | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Amy Klobuchar | 27% – +6 | 6.4% | Bernie Sanders | University of Massachusetts Lowell | 450 likely voters | Feb 12th-19th |
| Amy Klobuchar | 29% – +6 | 4.5% | Bernie Sanders | Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. | 500 likely voters | Feb 17th-20th |
| Bernie Sanders | 32% – +5 | 3.84% | Joe Biden | Data for Progress | 650.2118 likely voters | Feb 28th – Mar 2nd |
Another upset has been pulled off here by Biden, with some polls showing that Bernie would win from Klobuchar pulling out, but it instead seems Biden has benefit from it most. Although to be fair the polls were fairly close and Biden was 2nd in the latest Data for Progress poll.
Delegate Share
Joe Biden – 38
Bernie Sanders – 27
Elizabeth Warren – 10
Popular Vote Winner: Joe Biden
North Carolina Primary
The North Carolina Semi-closed Primary has 110 delegates at stake. 86 delegates are proportionally allocated based on congressional district performances and 24 delegates are allocated based on at-large performance.
North Carolina Polls
| Candidate Lead | Point Lead | Margin of Error | Runner Up | Company/Poll by | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Bloomberg/Sanders tie | 22% – +2 above 3rd | – | Joe Biden | SurveyUSA | 2,760 | Feb 13th-16th |
| Bernie Sanders | 23% – +4 | 6.5% | Micheal Bloomberg | University of Massachusetts Lowell | 450 likely voters | Feb 12th-18th |
| Bloomberg/Biden/Sanders tie | 20% – +11 above 4th | 3.75% | Elizabeth Warren | Spry Strategies | 561 likely voters | Feb 21st-23rd |
| Joe Biden | 23% – +3 | – | Bernie Sanders | Public Policy Polling | 852 likely voters | Feb 23rd-24th |
| Bernie Sanders | 20% – +2 | 3% | Joe Biden | Meredith College | 1,024 registered voters | Feb 16th-24th |
| Bernie Sanders | 27% – +2 | 4.2% | Joe Biden | Data for Progress | 536 likely voters | Feb 23rd-27th |
| Joe Biden | 27% – +8 | 4.1% | Bernie Sanders | Spry Strategies | 587 likely voters | Feb 26th-27th |
| Bernie Sanders | Varied | Varied | Joe Biden | Marist College | 2,530 | Feb 23rd-27th |
| Joe Biden | 29% – +4 | 3.2% | Bernie Sanders | East Carolina University | 1,288 registered voters | Feb 27th-28th |
| Bernie Sanders | 31% – +13 | 3.4% | Michael Bloomberg | High Point University | 1,216 | Feb 21st – 28th |
| Bernie Sanders | 26% – +1 | 3.8% | Joe Biden | Elucd | 657 | Feb 26th – Mar 1st |
| Joe Biden | 36% – +9 | 5.3% | Bernie Sanders | Data for Progress | 334 likely voters | Feb 28th – Mar 2nd |
Despite the race seeming to be a close three-way between Biden, Sanders and Bloomberg, in the end Biden managed to pull off a commendable win in the state, picking up the most delegates and winning the popular vote by a good margin. Meanwhile Bloomberg underperformed as did Sanders.
Delegate Share
Joe Biden – 67
Bernie Sanders – 37
Michael Bloomberg – 4
Elizabeth Warren – 2
Popular Vote Winner: Joe Biden
Oklahoma Primary
The Oklahoma Semi-closed Primary will have 37 delegates at stake. 29 delegates are proportionally allocated based on congressional district performances and 8 are allocated based on at-large performance.
Oklahoma Polls
| Candidate Lead | Point Lead | Margin of Error | Runner Up | Company/Poll by | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Micheal Bloomberg | 20% – +6 | 4.3% | Bernie Sanders | Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | 500 registered voters | Feb 10th-13th |
| Joe Biden | 21% – +1 | 4.84% | Micheal Bloomberg | SoonerPoll | 409 likely voters | Feb 17th-21st |
| Joe Biden | 35% – +7 | 5.5% | Bernie Sanders | Data for Progress | 300 likely voters | Feb 27th – Mar 1st |
Joe Biden pulled off the win in Oklahoma which makes sense as recent polls had been trending in his favour with Bloomberg dropping off, which has allowed him the win here.
Delegate Share
Joe Biden – 21
Bernie Sanders – 13
Michael Bloomberg – 3
Popular Vote Winner: Joe Biden
Tennessee Primary
The Tennessee Open Primary has 64 delegate at stake. 50 delegates are proportionally allocated based on performances in congressional districts and 14 are allocated based on at-large performance.
Tennessee Polls
| Candidate Lead | Point Lead | Margin of Error | Runner Up | Company/Poll by | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Joe Biden | 34% – +7 | 5.1% | Bernie Sanders | Data for Progress | 368 likley voters | Feb 28th – Mar 2nd |
Joe Biden pulled off the win here and again it isn’t too much of a surprise due to the most recent polls trending in Biden’s favour here as well as Bloomberg dropping off.
Delegate Share
1 delegate yet to be allocated
Joe Biden – 33
Bernie Sanders – 19
Michael Bloomberg – 10
Elizabeth Warren – 1
Popular Vote Winner: Joe Biden
Texas Primary
The Texas Open Primary has a large 228 delegates at stake. 179 delegates are proportionally allocated based on performances in the states senatorial districts and 49 delegates are allocated proportionally based on at-large performance.
Texas Polls
| Candidate Lead | Point Lead | Margin of Error | Runner Up | Company/Poll by | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Bernie Sanders | 23% – +3 | 5.9% | Joe Biden | University of Massachusetts Lowell | 600 likely voters | Feb 12th-18th |
| Sanders/Biden | 20% – +3 above 3rd | 2.7% | Elizabeth Warren | YouGov | 1,352 | Feb 6th-18th |
| Sanders/Biden | 24% – +7 above 3rd | – | Michael Bloomberg | Public Policy Polling | 1,045 likely voters | Feb 24th-25th |
| Bernie Sanders | 26% – +6 | 3.1% | Biden/Bloomberg | Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions | 1,004 registered voters | Feb 21st-26th |
| Bernie Sanders | 29% – +9 | 6% | Joe Biden | CNN/SSRS | 387 likely voters | Feb 22nd-26th |
| Bernie Sanders | 30% – +9 | 4.3% | Biden/Bloomberg | Data for Progress | 513 likely voters | Feb 23rd-27th |
| Bernie Sanders | 29% – +8 | 2.8% | Michael Bloomberg | University of Texas at Tyler | 1,221 registered voters | Feb 17th-26th |
| Bernie Sanders | 35% – +17 | 3.7% | Joe Biden | Marist College | 1,050 likely voters | Feb 23rd-27th |
| Bernie Sanders | 30% – +4 | 6.2% | Joe Biden | YouGov | 635 likely voters | Feb 27th-29th |
| Bernie Sanders | 31% – +11 | 3.4% | Joe Biden | Elucd | 833 | Feb 26th – Mar 1st |
| Bernie Sanders | 31% – +5 | 4.6% | Joe Biden | Emerson College | 450 | Feb 29th – Mar 1st |
| Bernie Sanders | 35% – +10 | 3-4% | Joe Biden | AtlasIntel | 1,100 registered voters (486 likely voters) | Feb 24th – Mar 2nd |
| Joe Biden | 30% – +2 | 5.7% | Bernie Sanders | Data for Progress | 300 likely voters | Feb 27th – Mar 2nd |
Joe Biden has managed to edge out a win in Texas over Bernie Sanders which means the latest poll from Data for Progress wasn’t too far off the mark. It is a big downside for the Sanders campaign that was hoping to get a defining win in Texas as a way to show that Bernie would be a viable candidate for President against Trump. It was also meant to be an example of strong hispanic support. Again it is probably a big help that Bloomberg seems to have tapered off here, although he is still pulling in quite a bit of the vote.
Delegate Share
Joe Biden – 111
Bernie Sanders – 102
Michael Bloomberg – 10
Elizabeth Warren – 5
Popular Vote Winner: Joe Biden
Utah Primary
The Utah Open Primary has 29 delegates at stake. 23 delegates are allocated proportionally based on performances in congressional districts and 6 delegates are proportionally allocated based on at-large performance.
Utah Polls
| Candidate Lead | Point Lead | Margin of Error | Runner Up | Company/Poll by | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Bernie Sanders | 27% – +12 | – | Elizabeth Warren | Suffolk University | 500 | Jan 18th-22nd |
| Bernie Sanders | 28% – +9 | 5.7% | Michael Bloomberg | HarrisX | 298 Likely Democratic Voters | Feb 22nd-26th |
| Bernie Sanders | 29% – +6 | 3.9% | Joe Biden | Data for Progress | 622 likely voters | Feb 28th – Mar 2nd |
It appears that Bernie Sanders will be getting the win here, although by how much is yet to be determined as only 71% of the vote is in. Joe Biden just doesn’t seem too popular here for some reason and is struggling between Bloomberg and Warren in the state.
Delegate Share
Bernie Sanders – 13
Joe Biden – 6
Michael Bloomberg – 5
Elizabeth Warren – 5
Popular Vote Winner: Projected Bernie Sanders
Vermont Primary
The Vermont Open Primary has 16 delegates at stake. 13 delegates are proportionally allocated based on performances in congressional districts and 3 delegates are proportionally allocated based on at-large performance.
Note: Bernie Sanders is the Federal Senator in the US Senate for Vermont and it is widely expected he will be the big winner here like last time.
Vermont Polls
| Candidate Lead | Point Lead | Margin of Error | Runner Up | Company/Poll by | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Bernie Sanders | 51% – +38 | 4% | Pete Buttigieg | Braun Research | 603 | Feb 4-10th |
| Bernie Sanders | 57% – +41 | 6.9% | Joe Biden | Data for Progress | 236 likely voters | 27th Feb – 2nd Mar |
Although Bernie Sanders clearly got a big win here as was fully expected, it wasn’t enough to allow him to win all of the delegates from his home state like last time, although it could be due to the increased number of major contenders. Joe Biden didn’t perform too bad here as he could possibly have.
Delegate Share
Bernie Sanders – 11
Joe Biden – 5
Popular Vote Winner: Bernie Sanders
Virginia Primary
In the Virginia Open Primary 99 delegates are at stake. 78 delegates are proportionally allocated based on performances in the congressional districts and 21 delegates are proportionally allocated based on at-large performance.
Virginia Polls
| Candidate Lead | Point Lead | Margin of Error | Runner Up | Company/Poll by | Sample | Fieldwork |
| Bloomberg/Sanders | 22% – +4 above 3rd | 4.9% | Joe Biden | Monmouth University | 400 likely voters | Feb 13th-16th |
| Bernie Sanders | 28% – +9 | 4.5% | Joe Biden | Data for Progress | 499 likely voters | Feb 23rd-25th |
| Joe Biden | 22% – +5 | 3.5% | Bernie Sanders | Christopher Newport University | 561 likely voters | Feb 3rd-24th |
| Joe Biden | 45% – +20 | – | Bernie Sanders | Change Research | 510 | Mar 1st-2nd |
| Joe Biden | 42% – +14 | 3-4% | Bernie Sanders | AtlasIntel | 1,100 registered voters (545 likely voters) | Mar 1st-2nd |
| Joe Biden | 39% – +15 | 5.4% | Bernie Sanders | Data for Progress | 327 likely voters | Feb 28th – Mar 2nd |
As the polls clearly told Joe Biden got the big win in Virginia with the majority of delegates and the popular vote. Virginia appears to be one of Bernie Sanders’ weak states.
Delegate Share
Joe Biden – 66
Bernie Sanders – 31
Elizabeth Warren – 2
Popular Vote Winner: Joe Biden
Up Next: Click Here for Part 2 Primary/Caucuses Tracker
Make sure to stay tuned by subscribing for email notifications at the bottom of this blog or by using an RSS Feed Reader!