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My Predictions based on latest polls…
US Senate – 100 seats, 35 up for election (including two special elections) – 51 needed for control
Republicans – 53 | +3
Democrats – 46 | -3
Independants – 1
US House of Representatives – 435 seats – 218 needed for control. All seats up for re-election. 6 House seats in the state of Louisiana will be up for election the day after the main Midterm elections, but those are often easy to guess.
Republicans – 218 | Net gain -22 Total Pickups +1
Democrats – 217 |Net gain +22 Total Pickups +23
Governers – 35 of 50 up for election.
Democrats: 16 | +8
Republicans: 19 | -7
Independants: 0 | -1
So here we are, the US Midterm Elections are just around the corner, in fact they begin tomorrow, the decider of what party controls the cogs of government from legislation to confirmations. The Midterm elections are a crucial part of the USA’s electoral system to show the peoples overral satisfaction with the current government in power both locally and nationally.
As is typical in Midterm Elections the party in power is always at a disadvantage and will often almost always make a net loss of total seats, especcially House of Representative seats. In this current set up the main showdown will be the House of Representatives where I see the Republicans mostly being on the defensive in nearly every instance and I have found very little evidence that they would make many pick ups, I have my predictions only giving them round about 1-2 pick ups in the House from the Democrats and even those may not come to fruition.
Meanwhile the Democrats will be fighting a downhill battle, they have the advantage in the generic ballot, a motivated voting force due to the controversial leadership of President Donald J. Trump and also the fact that they just have more seats they could possibly flip than not in the House of Representatives, I have predicted that they could pick up as many as 20+ seats. My final prediction is that the Republicans will hold on to the House with a 1 seat majority, I want to say right here right now that I don’t believe this will actually be the case, it is well within the margin of error and there were a number of seats that I claimed the Rs could hold that they could just as easily lose while there are also a number of seats I have said the Ds could pick up that the Rs could just as easily hold on to. So in reality it is all still to play for. I honestly don’t know if the Rs will hold or if the Ds will pick up the House, so far Rs have been lucky with the House in the last few years.
As well as many potential House seat pick ups the Democrats are also in for a good night when it comes to picking up State Governors from the Republicans, I have predicted that they may pick up as many as 8-9 State Governors including but not limited to Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan and so on. Some states have surprised me with the Governor polls though, for example Massachusetts and Maryland, two hardline Democrat states, are set to retain their Republican Governors. Alaska is one that either the Republicans or Democrats could pick up, or it could be that the Independant could hold on to it, it really depends in what way the vote splits, but I have made a prediction that see’s the vote split between the R and Independant candidate would likely favor the Democrat candidate, but again, it could easily go either way.
The only place I see the Republicans having a good night in is the Senate, the upper house of Congress. This is due to the set up of elections, not all Senate seats are put up as they have longer terms than the House and are also varied in sets, so a certain amount are up in a presidential election, different ones are up in Midterms and so on. With the current set ups the Democrats have many more seats up in the Senate than the Republicans do, most Republican seats are safe from being taken save 1 or 2, but the Democrats have many more seats up that could be taken by the Republicans, several places I have identified that the Democrats may lose a seat in is North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana and even possibly Florida where the Senate race is pretty much tied, meanwhile I have predicted that the heavily Republican states of Montana and West Virginia seem to be on course to retain their Democrat Senetors. But there is a path where things could lead to the Republicans being down 1 or even 2 seats in the Senate, the Senate races in Arizona and Tennessee are surprisngly close, this could potentially see the Democrats with a 1 seat majority in the Senate as they are also in caucus with Independants if they manage to hold all of their un-safe seats; this is the worst case scenario for the Republicans but it is unlikely to occur as I reckon the Republicans themselves will pick up at least two seats so if anything the Senate could have a very similar make up to what we see now and I don’t see the Tennessee Senate seat being taken.
As my final conclusion on what I see happening is this; Democrats will make good gains in the House and I expect they’ll pick up a minimum of 10 seats but I see them likely getting more and it is very, very possible they could take the House of Representatives with at least a small majority if all goes according to plan, but at the same time if the Rs manage to get some upsets on their side, or hold on to more seats than I have predicted they could just as easily hold on to the House, but what is certain is they will have less seats than they have now, things will get narrower in the House no matter what. Democrats I am adamentally certain will pick up a number of Governor seats from the Republicans, there has been also some speculation that the Republicans might even get a shock result in flipping the California Governor seat in recent weeks, but looking further into this it seems mostly unlikely and I do not expect it to happen. The Senate on the other hand I very much expect the Republicans make at least 1 or 2 gains and will likely hold the Senate, but it could very well be with an even smaller majority, and that majority is already small enough after the Alabama upset, alternatively it could just as easily be with a larger majority than they have now.
And now for my completely out of the blue prediction that takes nothing into account. Republicans don’t lose more than 5 Governors, they only lose 16 seats to the Democrats and gain 2 seats from them in the House and in the Senate they make 6 gains from the Democrats but lose one seat (Nevada) to the Democrats. Don’t worry to any who this may worry, it is purely a blind prediction away from my prediction using polls and other data.
All in all, Democrats should be expecting a good night, but then again the same was thought for the 2016 Presidential election which ended up being a major upset, losing several stronghold states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and even Pennsylvania, I think in many elections, it will come down to how many votes split off into the 3rd Party and Independant candidates in many seats up for election and how big the turn out is from each party. But Midterms are not presidential elections and I do not think that Republicans will make as big as an upset this time, if any at all, but of course I could very well be wrong, voting energy on both sides seem to be strong right now and Republicans have been leading in early voting in most of the key states.