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With the possibility of a vote of no confidence happening some time in the near-future against current Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May due to the handling of the BREXIT debacle, I thought I would go over what a Vote of No Confidence is and how it works as well as some of its history.
What is it?
A vote of no confidence, also known as a motion of no-confidence is a motion that can be called either by a governments own party members in parliament against an executive of their own government or a party leader or by the opposition party or parties against the government as a whole, what it means simply is that they have lost confidence with an executive of the government, this could be a party leader, a minister of a cabinet or even the prime minister themselves which would in that case if succesful lead to the said executive resigning, an appointee would replace them or if it was the prime minister who lost a confidence vote then they would resign and a leadership election would be held to replace them, it could also lead to the government resigning and a general election being called.
A no-confidence vote can also be held against the government as a whole from the opposition party or parties and this can, if succesful, lead to the whole government resigning and a general election being called, although these sorts of confidence votes are very rare and often unsuccesful, the last succesful no-confidence vote against the government was in 1979, these sorts of votes often happen if the then government is a minority government and if a major piece of legislation they ran on fails to pass parliament, as an example. In fact, the Labour Party has threatned a vote of no confidence against the Conservative government if Theresa May’s BREXIT Deal fails to pass parliament.
Although there is no explicit law that says an executive or the government has to resign if they lose a confidence vote, they often always do as it would most likely lead to a bigger crisis than there already was.
Upon losing a vote of no confidence the government or the executive can either go for a confidence vote (like a 2nd chance) or they can just straight up resign or as I previously said they can even ignore it.
Its History
The first ever Prime Minister to have been ousted by a confidence test was Sir Robert Walpole in 1742 with him losing by only 1 vote, although this was not directly a confidence vote, it came about after the government’s petition to prevent two MP’s who won by-elections from entering parliament failed to pass and Sir Robert Walpole saw that as a lack of confidence within himself and his cabinet and so he resigned, his cabinet did not resign as Cabinet Collective Responsibility had not been established and so they did not have a perogative to publicly support their PM.
The first cabinet to resign due to a vote of no confidence was in 1782 when Lord North was Prime Minister, it came about after the defeat of British Troops in the Siege of Yorktown during the American Revolutionary War which subsequently lead to a bill against the war which was passed by parliament, this was seen as a lack of confidence in the government leading to Lord North resigning and his Cabinet taking Collective Responsibility (first time a Cabinet had done so) and also resigning.
So as can also be seen from above, a specific vote of no confidence does not actually have to be called, the government or Prime Minister themselves can treat major legislative or motion votes in parliament as a vote or motion of confidence within an executive or government as well.
Another interesting vote of no confidence that happened in 1784 was the first incidence where then Prime Minister William Pitt and his government itself refused to resign, despite further succesful follow up votes against them, with it ending with William himself asking then King George III to dissolve the government (enabling William to avoid resignation) and his party subsequently won the following election with a comfortable majority despite the defeats he faced.
The last succesful no-confidence motion against a government as a whole was held in 1979 against Prime Minister James Callaghan and the Labour Government, brought about by Margaret Thatcher and the Conservative Party, after the Scottish National Party had also called for it over the Referendum on the Scotland Act not being implemented, this was the straw that broke the camels back as the government had been in trouble for a while due to unpopular economic implementations, a number of different Prime Ministers due to multiple resignations, a whittling majority from by-elections and party defections as well as a failed Lib-Lab Coalition with the then Liberal Party.
The last succesful vote of no-confidence against a party leader was in 2003 against Iain Duncan Smith, the main reason being his lack of charisma and popularity within the party and with the public.
What’s Happening with Theresa May?
Theresa May is potentially on the cusp of facing a confidence vote, there are two main hurdles that she needs to clear to avoid them, first of all she must maintain enough support from her backbench MP’s, specifically MP’s that are adament BREXIT supporters who view May’s current BREXIT Deal as a betrayal, letters have already been sent into the chair of the 1922 Committee (fun fact: the committee was actually founded in 1923) from a number of backbenchers, specifically from hard-BREXIT MP’s led by Jacob Rees-Mogg.
The 1922 Committee is a Parliamentary Group for all Conservative backbench MP’s to meet and discuss parliament happenings on a weekly basis while parliament is in session, in the most basic sense, a way for them to discuss views independently of Conservative frontbenchers. If the chair recieves a no-confidence letter from 15% of MP’s (which is 48 letters needed for the current government) then a no-confidence vote against Theresa May would be triggered, so far 25 letters have been confirmed to have been sent, not by the chair as he is not at privy to reveal this information, but this is known from MP’s who have publicly themselves said they have sent in a letter, so there could potentially be more than 25 letters in if others who have sent one in have not revealed they have.
If Theresa May can avoid a revolt from her own party, which so far she has, then the next hurdle to clear would be to get her BREXIT Deal passed through parliament, if it fails to pass she and her government faces a possible no-confidence revolt against her government from the opposition Labour Party and with an unstable coalition between the Conservatives and NI Democratic Unionist Party, a no-confidence vote against the government could be a disaster for Theresa May and lead to another General Election, that is if in the vote the DUP coalition decides to revolt, as well as possibly hard-BREXIT Conservative MPs.
Alternatively a no-confidence vote could fail to oust Theresa May and make her position more solid for the forseeable future.
So there you have it, an explanation of the vote of no confidence, some of its history and what may be happening to the current government in the near-future, so stay tuned!
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