I did one of these a few months ago when polls were likely to be not as accurate as they now should be. Since we are a lot closer to the election now the current polls we are seeing should be a lot closer to reality, although that still doesn’t mean they might not be off either through some kind of methodology error or by usual margin of error.
As it stands it appears Biden has enjoyed a major boost in the national ballot polls with him comfortably above the 50% mark and anywhere from 10-14 points ahead of Trump with a round about a general average of being 9-points ahead altogether. There have been a select few outliers that have put the race closer (both candidates in the 40s with Biden anywhere from 4-5 points ahead) but this hasn’t correlated enough to really declare any tightening. If anything, widening has continued in Biden’s favour and the longer that goes on for is bad news for Trump as we are now so close to the election, only a mere 15-days away.
It seems as it stands unlikely Biden would lose, but at the same time the winner is determined by the electoral college vote rather than the popular vote, but the fact Biden is so far ahead in the national ballot polls should be enough as of now for an electoral college win as well, so let’s look into the state-by-state polls once again in the states that are shaping up to be close/interesting races.
Alaska – Honourable Mention
There have been a select few polls, mostly from the Alaska Survey Research polls that have put Trump with only a narrow lead in a state that typically votes Republican in Presidential elections. One of the interesting things about Alaska is that many voters are Independents and so it can sometimes make certain state-level races (such as Governor, House, Senate elections) a possible shot for Independent candidates who will then usually caucus with Democrats.
It is possible this time that this phenomenon seeps into the presidential race and enables Biden to just clinch the state, although it is unlikely and it is most likely Trump will win Alaska, but perhaps with a smaller margin than last time. But one thing noted is that Trump doesn’t seem to be doing as well with Independent voters compared to last time.
Arizona
Arizona has continued to move towards Biden’s favour with little evidence of Trump managing to close the gap or catch up except perhaps in a few outlier polls, but most polls generally agree that Biden is on course to win the state, especially with Biden being close to that important 50% mark in many polls, which if accurate will make it significantly harder for Trump to win the state, generally for now Biden is favoured by about 3-4 points on average over Trump.
Losing Arizona will make it very hard for Trump to win the electoral college vote as it leaves him with significantly less options towards the important 270 mark, in many of the scenarios Trump needs to hold on to Arizona as well as a number of other states such as North Carolina, Florida and Ohio while taking at least one-two “blue wall” states (such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin etc).
Basically, if Biden manages to pull off a win in Arizona, it’s highly likely he will win the election.
Florida
Most polls in Florida have showed Biden with an advantage to win the typically very close nail-biting state, overall Biden appears to have an average 4-5-point lead over Trump with very, very few polls giving Trump any kind of lead, there has been some tightening but not as much as would really be liked for the Trump camp. Many of these polls have also put Biden close or just over the 50% mark as well, which if correct will make it a lot harder for Trump to win.
In all likelihood the state will be close and it is impossible to say who will definitely win it, but Biden seems to have the advantage if polls can be trusted. Florida is another must-win state for Trump, if he loses it, then it is highly likely he loses the election.
Georgia
Polls continue to flip-flop between unsafe Trump and Biden leads in the state of Georgia – a state won by Republicans every time since 1992 but which appears to slowly be trending in the favour of Democrats. Many polls have given narrow leads to either Trump or Biden, often within 1-2 points, while some polls have put leads further ahead, again for both Trump and Biden.
Since it is a generally Republican leaning state a close race would most likely mean Trump wins, but there is plenty of room here for an upset and if Trump loses Georgia, again he likely loses the election.
Iowa
For a time it seemed that Iowa was most likely going to vote for Trump with him not having an exactly comfortable lead, but a lead better than many other battleground states, but now it seems the polls in Iowa have suddenly tightened to quite a large degree and has put Biden and Trump on very level footing in the state with one of the latest polls having it at a 49-49 split. A few other recent polls have also put Biden slightly ahead in the state.
In my opinion though we need more polls to really have a clearer picture of what is happening in the state, but it does seem like it will perhaps be a close one.
Michigan
The big question is, can Trump hold on to Michigan? Considering he won it for Republicans for the first time since 1988 it isn’t exactly something that could be relied on and it appears from the latest polls that it is leaning quite firmly into Biden’s advantage, with most polls putting him 50% or above in the state, which is bad news for Trump who trails behind by about 8-6-points on average.
No polls seem to have confidence on Trump winning the state, at least yet, and time is running out.
Minnesota
For a time, it seemed like Minnesota was beginning to trend in Trump’s favour with some tightening happening earlier on in the year but since then most polls have put Biden at a comfortable pace with him mostly being over the 50% mark and ahead by about 9-points on average. It seems more and more unlikely that Trump will flip the state.
If Trump did manage to pull off a shock win here it would be the first Republican presidential win in the state since 1972. More polls would be nice from this state.
Nevada
Nevada still remains a possibility for Trump to get at least from the limited polling available, Trump is about 6ish points behind but Biden has maintained a lead over the 50% mark which makes it a much harder win for Trump unless he can convince minds that may already be made up. More polling is realistically needed for a clearer picture but more likely than not Biden will hold the state.
If Trump were to pick it up though it might slightly change the scenarios for a Trump win giving him a little bit more leeway, but likely would not make a major difference, with Trump still needing to hold on to states such as Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio etc and still needing at least one “blue wall” state.
New Hampshire
Although the state was very nearly picked up by Trump in the 2016 election, it appears this time that the state has moved quite largely away from Trump and is very much favouring Biden, with many polls putting him over the 50% mark in the state. As of now a Trump win here seems unlikely.
There is a scenario that allows Trump to win a possible 2nd term via winning New Hampshire without needing any of the “blue wall” states if he manages to also win Nevada and hold Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida and Georgia. In this scenario Trump would win by 2 electoral votes which could mean faithless electors might actually cause a stir if this unlikely outcome were to occur.
North Carolina + South Carolina mention
Biden is hoping to repeat Obama’s success by winning North Carolina for the Democrats again. Once relied upon by Republicans the state has turned into a tossup between Trump and Biden and in all likelihood is going to be quite a close and nail-biting race. Again, like many states, if Trump loses North Carolina he is highly likely to lose the election.
Neighbouring South Carolina is less likely to be flipped by Biden but the polls are close enough for such a possibility to take place, but in all likelihood Trump will hold South Carolina.
Ohio
Ohio is another must-win state for Trump and is one of the battleground states that he is polling the best in – although it isn’t exactly the “best” when looking at the numbers – it is very close between Biden and Trump, some polls give a slight Biden lead, others a slight Trump lead and some a complete deadlock. Originally Trump was consecutively polling slightly ahead of Biden in the state but tightening likely now has him on edge.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is one of the states that if Trump were to win again then he would likely have won the election, in many circumstances, although some would still allow a possible Biden win. Pennsylvania was seen as one of the “blue wall” states in 2016 that Trump managed to win. It remains to be seen if he can do it again but polling has not been in his favour here, although he has polled here a bit better than in states such as Michigan and Wisconsin, but Biden remains ahead, generally once again also at or above the 50% mark, making it harder for Trump to make an inroad.
It is hard to say who will win it but it seems to be most likely Biden for now.
Texas
Earlier in the year Texas was making some waves as polls showed the state either tied between Trump and Biden or with Biden pulling slightly ahead within the margin of error, then for a time this dropped off with Trump pulling ahead and even reaching the 50% mark in some polls, but once again now recently Texas seems to be making some waves again with polls showing the race tightening again, although many polls still also give Trump the advantage.
If Trump were to lose Texas it would be game over as the loss of such a large cache of electoral votes would make it mathematically impossible for Trump to win.
It is in all likelihood that Trump will win Texas, but it is a continuing reminder that sometime in the near future Texas is likely to go to the Democrats, leaving Republicans with basically no path of winning the presidency in such scenarios.
I like to refer to Texas as “The Big One” cause you don’t exactly know when it is going to flip, but when it inevitably does the shock waves will be huge in implication.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin, like the other blue wall states that Trump won in 2016, appears to be favoring Biden with him at or above the 50% mark in many of the polls, similar to leads in Michigan as well for Biden. A few polls have put the state closer but still with a Biden advantage. Trump losing Wisconsin will make winning the presidency that bit harder, especially if he is not able to pick up or hold at least 1-2 other “blue wall” states.
It remains hard to say what will happen but the Biden leads in many states backed up by the current large leads in the national ballot polls seem to show that a Biden win is a lot more likely than a Trump win, the polls are not as close as they were at this point in 2016 and so it would seem that the “polls being wrong scenario” is unlikely due to methodology changes since then, the polls were also more accurate during the 2018 midterms, giving some credence to an improvement/change in methodology that seems to work.
But nothing is entirely sure until the election results themselves are announced and concluded.
My take away is that it is essential for Trump to hold as much as he can, he needs Arizona in pretty much every scenario, he also needs North Carolina, Texas, Georgia, Florida and Ohio.
Biden on the other hand isn’t in as much danger of losing and can afford to take certain losses, but he does need to take back the blue wall plus a state such as Arizona, North Carolina etc.
I will later this month be coming out with a post or posts about the possible Senate outcome and also my prediction on what states will be won by who and who I think will win.
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